Securities strategy: adjustment is opportunity, a shares in mid late August or start to rise

category:Finance
 Securities strategy: adjustment is opportunity, a shares in mid late August or start to rise


In terms of allocation, in the mid season, the pharmaceutical, compulsory consumption and technology sector leaders who have experienced a short-term correction can still rely on excellent semi annual reports to obtain excess returns. For the new investors, it is suggested that they should pay more attention to three main lines: the first is the plate benefited from the weak dollar and commodity / energy price rise, including gold, nonferrous metals and chemical industry; the second is the optional consumer products benefiting from economic recovery and recovery of consumption, including automobile, household appliances, home furnishings and decoration Third, insurance and banks with low absolute valuation and relatively fully digested the negative factors.

Event factors only short-term interference to the market, the main line of science and technology + securities companies continued. In the third quarter, we took into account the early cycle industries with rapid recovery of fundamentals, and in the fourth quarter, we paid attention to undervalued product rotation.

Guotai Junan Securities: shock to continue, pro cyclical plate can be

Upward pressure, concussion hope to continue, the center will rise. 1) From the perspective of profitability, the current economy is gradually improving, and corporate profits continue to rise. With the advent of the intensive disclosure period of semi annual reports, the support of profits to the market will be strengthened. 2) From the perspective of risk preference, the uncertainty of China and the United States has increased recently, but the risk assessment of China and the United States in the medium and long term is declining. 3) From the perspective of risk-free interest rate, it is difficult to change the expectation of long-term interest rate fall, residents have abundant deposits, and the logic of incremental funds brought by the decline of risk-free interest rate is still in place. Looking forward to the future, under the pattern of Shanghai strong and deep weak, the Shanghai composite index is still likely to be high before the impact. However, from the bottom up, the opportunity of selected stocks declines, and the upward momentum weakens. It is still expected that the future will be in a pattern of shock, and the shock center will be enhanced.

The pattern of 3100-3400 shocks remains unchanged, and we need to focus on factors such as China and the United States, profitability, regulation and so on. Cycle and bank are dominant, consumption is steady, and technology time is not up. Industry comparison: banking / building materials / machinery / household appliances / Automobile / new energy.

At present, the external factors such as the escalation of Sino US information disputes lead to the increase of short-term market volatility. However, even under the pessimistic assumption that China and the United States are completely decoupled from each other, China still has the ability to reconstruct the information technology ecology, so there is no need to be pessimistic about the market in the medium and long term. In the second quarter, the central banks monetary policy implementation report further clarified the cross cyclical adjustment and reserved policy space for the future. On this basis, the medium and long-term slow bull foundation may be more solid. In the market dominated by public offering and Beishang incremental funds, when the market volatility is significantly increased, the subsequent market or allocation rebalancing further tends to value stocks.

Industry allocation continued to focus on value stock valuation repair, and continued to recommend financial stocks, real estate completion chain, electric vehicles and industrial Internet that are more relevant to the business cycle (residents purchasing power and enterprise IT capital expenditure ability).

It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward, and the market is still in the two-and-a-half-year upward cycle started in the beginning of 2019, gradually turning from liquidity driven to fundamental driven. Although the degree of monetary policy easing has been weakened, the current market incremental funds continue to flow in. Chinas economic data continues to improve, the growth rate of enterprise profits continues to rise, and more industries will usher in improvement in the coming second quarter report. In August, the performance announcement exceeded expectations, which should be the focus of the market. However, we need to start to pay attention to the marginal impact of the increase of stock market supply and reduction on the market capital supply and demand.

In terms of industry allocation ideas, from the existing performance data and the preference of incremental capital trend, there are the following industry selection ideas: first, focus on the areas that the China Daily News may focus on, such as machinery, electricity innovation, food, household appliances, building materials, and TMT; second, the fields in line with the 730 Political Bureau meeting and the domestic big cycle; in general, science and technology, midstream manufacturing and The combination of alternative consumption is likely to dominate in August.

A shares are still in the equity friendly combination of weak profit recovery + loose liquidity maintenance. The substantial easing of the global central banks response to the new epidemic situation has been reflected in the rapid rise in inflation expectations. It continues the previous thinking of combining industrial trends, interim report performance, valuation and fund positions, and explores a reasonable valuation of recovery in the inflation trading.

It is suggested that we should continue to reduce dimension of valuation, find the leader with relatively reasonable valuation in the generalization of beta main line in bull market, and alpha inflation trade of Pro cyclical performance recovery of the damaged chain of the epidemic: 1. Investment in internal circulation inflation trade (nonferrous metals, chemical industry, building materials); 2. Manufacturing internal circulation (military industry, photovoltaic, new energy vehicles); 3. Internal consumption cycle (tax-free consumer services, consumer services Small household appliances). Theme investment focuses on the reform of state-owned enterprises (Shanghai, Shenzhen regional test of state-owned assets).

Societe Generale Securities: grasping the long bull is a good opportunity to layout high-quality individual stocks

With the global liquidity flooding, Chinese and foreign economic and financial data continue to exceed expectations, corporate earnings recovery expectations have been revised, and Chinas financial reform has been accelerating, raising market risk appetite. Major indexes of A-share including Shanghai composite index have reached new highs since 2019 u3002 The logic of reviving cattle is being tested.

Maintain the short-term neutral judgment of the market, that is, the market is in a volatile pattern at this stage. Due to external influence in the short term, a new round of overall upward market still needs to wait. The structure focuses on the domestic big cycle. Looking forward to the future, vaccines, the US election and the Fifth Plenary Session may be major variables affecting the market logic. In the near future, it focuses on military industry, Xinchuang, apple industrial chain, liquor, building materials, etc.

Recently, pharmaceutical, electronic and other plates that have been strong in the past two years have been adjusted, which may be the signal of the end of the shock. In terms of time, it is more likely to start rising again in mid and late August. The rate of increase depends on the certainty of the inventory cycle and the rate of re inflation after global monetary easing. Although there is still great uncertainty in the logic of economic recovery, from the perspective of investment, it is the most perfect time to do long economy at the stock market level. Because cyclical financial valuation is very cheap, monetary policy is very friendly, long economy is a long option, risk return is relatively good.

Guosheng Securities: adjustment is opportunity, science and Technology Innovation Board will be the main battlefield

We have reiterated that adjustment is an opportunity. We should continue to be optimistic about technology bulls and sci-tech innovation bulls. In August, scientific and technological innovation is the main battlefield. In recent years, Sino US friction continues to heat up, which has a short-term impact on the market. However, overseas shock is not the main contradiction in the market and does not constitute a systematic risk. In previous reports, it has been repeatedly stressed that the current external risk is not the main contradiction in the market: After reviewing the four rounds of Sino US disputes since 2018, it can be found that the impact of Sino US friction on the domestic market is gradually passivated as the bullets gradually run out. Therefore, on the basis of the domestic market has prepared for the worst, the impact of Sino US friction on a shares is expected to continue to weaken. Once again, it is easy for the market not to adjust this year, and adjustment is an opportunity. The core lies in the abundant liquidity of the stock market and the continuous entry of institutional increments. Continue to be optimistic that science and technology will be the strongest main line in the market in the third quarter, and the science and Technology Innovation Board will be the main battlefield. Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

We have reiterated that adjustment is an opportunity. We should continue to be optimistic about technology bulls and sci-tech innovation bulls. In August, scientific and technological innovation is the main battlefield. In recent years, Sino US friction continues to heat up, which has a short-term impact on the market. However, overseas shock is not the main contradiction in the market and does not constitute a systematic risk. In previous reports, it has been repeatedly stressed that the current external risk is not the main contradiction in the market: After reviewing the four rounds of Sino US disputes since 2018, it can be found that the impact of Sino US friction on the domestic market is gradually passivated as the bullets gradually run out. Therefore, on the basis of the domestic market has prepared for the worst, the impact of Sino US friction on a shares is expected to continue to weaken.

Once again, it is easy for the market not to adjust this year, and adjustment is an opportunity. The core lies in the abundant liquidity of the stock market and the continuous entry of institutional increments. Continue to be optimistic that science and technology will be the strongest main line in the market in the third quarter, and the science and Technology Innovation Board will be the main battlefield.