Medium term forecast of medical device companies

category:Finance
 Medium term forecast of medical device companies


On July 27, Shi lichen, head of Beijing Dingchen medical management center, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the market rate of medical devices in the second half of the year will continue to improve, because the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still very serious, and the demand for ventilator and other medical devices is still huge. From the list, most of the listed medical device companies are on the list of the Ministry of Commerce. In the second half of the year, although the state promotes centralized procurement in the medical device industry, it mainly focuses on high-value consumables, which has a greater impact on multinational enterprises.

Nearly half of the companys performance rose more than 100%

According to the wind data, among the 38 enterprises that announced interim performance forecasts, the mid year net profit and growth rate of British Medical Group ranked first in the board. Among them, the forecast net profit was 1.9-2.100 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 2581.80% - 2864.10%. Zhende medical, Oriental biology and Daan gene are the second, and the maximum growth rate is expected to exceed 1200%.

Among them, Zhende medical reported a net profit of 985-1.015 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1538.97% - 1588.89%, Oriental biological forecast net profit of 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1294.1%, and Daan gene forecast net profit of 620-800 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 924.57% - 1222.03%.

The reporter of 21st century economic report found that most of the enterprises with relatively large growth or net profit growth decline or even loss are affected by the epidemic.

Ying Ke medical said novel coronavirus epidemic affected the demand for global disposable protective gloves, and the price of disposable protective gloves products increased significantly, making sales and gross profit margins increased during the reporting period. Since August 2019, the company has laid out Anhui production base, and the PVC glove production line and nitrile glove production line have been put into operation, which has increased the glove production capacity in the reporting period year on year. At the same time, the U.S. trade representatives office has exempted import tariffs on a variety of medical products imported from China, and the surge in demand for protective products such as masks and isolation clothing also contributed to the growth.

Zhende medical said that the growth was due to the substantial increase in the sales of anti epidemic protective products (mainly masks, protective clothing and isolation clothing products). In addition, the company acquired 55% equity of British rocialle healthcare limited in 2019, which further expanded the sales channels and improved the overall market share and coverage.

Many enterprises also suffered from the negative impact of the epidemic. For example, Lidmans main business is R & D, production and sales of in-vitro diagnostic reagents. The companys net profit growth in the first half of the year has dropped sharply, with an estimated loss of 4-8 million yuan and a profit of 8.1696 million yuan in the same period of last year.

Lidman explained that the novel coronavirus epidemic situation, the domestic medical institutions routine outpatient examination volume decreased year by year, with the domestic epidemic gradually controlled, the two quarter of the medical institutions and medical examination volume at all levels increased compared with the first quarter, but biochemical testing volume is still not up to the same period last year, the companys biochemical diagnosis reagent sales decline, the companys overall business revenue The decrease on a year-on-year basis resulted in a loss in the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company.

On July 14, the company released the performance forecast. The company estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2020 was 32.9415 million to 46.1181 million, with a year-on-year change of - 75.00% to - 65.00%, and the average net profit growth rate of medical device service industry was - 0.95%.

It is understood that Chinas medical device market space is broad, and has been growing rapidly in recent years. From the perspective of industry scale, Guoxin Securities pointed out that Chinas medical device industry has maintained a high growth in recent years. In 2018, the domestic medical device market scale exceeded 530 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 20%. In recent three years, the growth has been steady. From the perspective of subdivided fields, due to strong technical barriers and high unit price, the market scale of medical equipment accounts for the highest proportion, more than 50%.

However, Shi lichen pointed out to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the technical threshold of medical devices is relatively high. Large equipment such as CT, MRI, ventilator, anesthesia machine, especially high-end medical equipment, are still mainly imported products. Although the trend of import substitution has begun to appear at present, it still needs a certain amount of technology accumulation before comprehensive and rapid import substitution.

During the epidemic period, the domestic ventilator also came out of a wave of market. Affected by the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the surge in ventilator orders also makes the capital market excited for ventilator concept stocks.

For example, the aerospace Changfeng, which was attached to the side of ventilator, started on March 20 and started around 10 yuan, with the first trading limit. On March 27, the aerospace Changfeng issued the announcement on clarification of media reports, saying that the developed severe ventilator athena8500 is currently in the product registration stage, has not obtained the Chinese medical device product registration certificate, and has not yet mass produced There is no actual sales in China. But the clarification announcement also cant stand the favor of the market. By the end of April 2, the stock price of aerospace Changfeng had risen to 22.28 yuan, up 113% in just 10 trading days.

Yuyue medical, an authentic ventilator enterprise, said on the interactive platform on April 1 that the companys noninvasive ventilator was granted the emergency use authorization (EUA) of FDA on April 1, which can be used clinically during the outbreak of covid-19 in the United States. The specific impact on the performance depends on the actual business situation. The companys share price rose again on April 2.

In addition to helping the stock price rise, judging from the performance forecast of the interim report, these enterprises have also made great achievements. According to the above-mentioned performance forecast of 2020 interim report, the net profit of many ventilator related enterprises has maintained a growth trend. For example, Lepu medical is expected to make a net profit of 113-118 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 590% - 620%, ranking first in the growth rate of ventilator concept stocks. The net profit of Yuyue medical is expected to be 1.066-1.120 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100% - 110%. The net profit of Mindray medical is expected to be 3.269-3.506 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.00% - 48.00%.

According to the mid year report of Wandong Medical Co., Ltd., the profit growth is mainly due to the increase in sales of mobile DR and other related products in the half year of 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. Huatai Securities expects that mobile DR and Dr of the companys anti epidemic products will continue to develop and maintain growth, while other products such as MRI, CT and DSA will gradually recover.

According to the mid year report of Mindray medical, due to the epidemic situation, the demand for monitors, ventilators, infusion pumps, portable color ultrasound and mobile Dr of the companys life information and support production line increased significantly, especially the pulling effect on the life information and support production line. From the second quarter of 2020, the company began to export new crown antibody reagents to overseas markets, making up for the partial impact of the epidemic on the in vitro diagnosis production line. Industrial Securities said that after the epidemic, the construction of ICU in China will be gradually implemented. It is estimated that the total incremental demand for ventilators will be 15342 in 2020, an increase of 30.15% year-on-year. In 2016, the global ventilator revenue was nearly 5.88 billion US dollars, the output was about 6.6 million units, and the compound growth rate was 7.2%. In 2018, Chinas medical ventilator market scale reached 2.43 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. Compared with developed countries in Europe and America, there is still a big gap in the per capita ventilator population in China. It can be seen that the demand for ventilators will remain high in the second half of the year, whether in the domestic market or in the overseas market where the epidemic situation is still serious, and the performance of relevant companies can still be expected. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF4368

According to the mid year report of Mindray medical, due to the epidemic situation, the demand for monitors, ventilators, infusion pumps, portable color ultrasound and mobile Dr of the companys life information and support production line increased significantly, especially the pulling effect on the life information and support production line. From the second quarter of 2020, the company began to export new crown antibody reagents to overseas markets, making up for the partial impact of the epidemic on the in vitro diagnosis production line.

Industrial Securities said that after the epidemic, the construction of ICU in China will be gradually implemented. It is estimated that the total incremental demand for ventilators will be 15342 in 2020, an increase of 30.15% year-on-year. In 2016, the global ventilator revenue was nearly 5.88 billion US dollars, the output was about 6.6 million units, and the compound growth rate was 7.2%. In 2018, Chinas medical ventilator market scale reached 2.43 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. Compared with developed countries in Europe and America, there is still a big gap in the per capita ventilator population in China.

It can be seen that the demand for ventilators will remain high in the second half of the year, whether in the domestic market or in the overseas market where the epidemic situation is still serious, and the performance of relevant companies can still be expected.