According to the data, by the middle of 2019, Chinas total household wealth has increased from $3.7 trillion in 2000 to $63.8 trillion, accounting for 18% of the worlds total, ranking second only to the United States. Since 2000, Chinas family wealth has been gradually increasing, especially in the past two years, which reflects the increase in financial needs. Tu Guangshao said.
This is also reflected in the report. Chinas online investment willingness index, also known as Chinas online investment willingness index, has dropped sharply since the first quarter, which is 111.4% and 109.7% respectively since the first quarter.
At present, the participation rate of family Internet financial management has been increasing, from 5.4% in 2015 to 11.3% in 2019. Gan Li, director of the China family finance research and Research Center at Southwest University of Finance and economics, said that the epidemic promoted the growth of online financing demand, and further extended to the elderly and non first and second tier cities.
Specifically, from the age group analysis, the online investment willingness index of the group under 30 years old of the head of household reaches 108.8, while that of the group aged 51-60 is 103.6.
Under the strong financial demand, where does the capital flow?
According to the report, household demand for low-risk assets, including insurance, demand deposits and time deposits, is slowing down, and holding overseas assets is also decreasing, but the demand for equity fund assets is increasing. Among them, compared with stocks, the willingness of households to invest in funds is significantly higher.
In this regard, the market has an intuitive reflection. Wind data shows that since January, the growth rate of Chinas stock market has declined and the growth rate of fund scale has increased. Take April as an example, the month on month growth rate of stock market scale was 5.2%, while that of fund scale was 6.9%.
According to the report data, in the second quarter, the index value of Chinas households stock allocation willingness was 90, while that of funds was 96; if the focus was on households with financial assets of more than 100000, the difference was more obvious, with the index of stock allocation willingness of 97.16 and fund of 103.91.
After analysis, it is found that the behavior of the familys additional investment fund is not driven by the expectation of economic recovery, nor is it driven by assets or income. Moreover, the group of the fund is younger and more educated. This kind of behavior is likely to be a medium and long-term behavior. Gan Li said.
It is also worth mentioning that in 2020, 52.9% of the new entrants to the fund market are young people under the age of 30 (compared with 27.9% in the whole sample), which means that the new funders are younger. Wang Jun, general manager of ant groups digital financial wealth business group, said that he was more willing to choose funds than stocks, indicating that individual investors are becoming more and more rational.
In the context of a better equity market, ordinary users may not know how to choose the industry and judge the market trend, while fund managers can play their professional ability.
The willingness of families to buy houses is on the rise
According to the report, the willingness of Chinese families to buy houses has increased after the epidemic. In the next three months, families with multiple apartments will have a higher willingness to buy houses. It is reported that in the first quarter, the housing investment willingness of families with multiple Suites reached 105.2, significantly higher than that of other groups, and this phenomenon continued in the second quarter.
In addition, according to the analysis of families with different housing holdings, about 20% of the families held a wait-and-see attitude towards buying houses in the second quarter, but the proportion of families planning to purchase houses reached 12.0%, higher than other families. In this context, Gan Li said, real estate regulation can not be relaxed, beware of raising market risks.
Sheng Songcheng, counselor of the Shanghai Municipal Peoples government and professor of China Europe International Business School, said at the forum that we should adhere to the principle of housing without speculation and that the demand side regulation should not be relaxed.
In fact, in recent years, the regulation and control policies of real estate are being strengthened. For example, Hangzhou has set a five-year sales period for talents to purchase houses, Ningbo has expanded the scope of purchase restrictions, and Dongguan has restricted the minimum scale of pre-sale and house price increase.
In Sheng Songchengs view, the current real estate market is showing new characteristics. On the one hand, real estate investment and sales have gradually recovered, but house prices have not risen generally, but a new phenomenon of urban differentiation and intra city differentiation has emerged. According to the data, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in the first tier, second tier and third tier cities rose by 3.3%, 5.3% and 4.6% respectively year-on-year in June, and the increase was 0.5, 1.6 and 1.8 percentage points lower than that in January.
On the other hand, the housing market dominated by residential demand is forming. Since this year, the housing groups in different cities in China are mainly composed of rigid demand and improvement. Among them, the first housing for young families is one of the main demands of the housing market; meanwhile, the demand for resource-based housing is also obvious, such as school district housing.
Larger housing demand is an important support for the stability of the real estate market. Sheng Songcheng said that in the future, the overall housing prices will show a steady upward trend. At present, the proportion of residential land and commercial land needs to be improved.
Lower willingness to allocate overseas assets
The arrival of the epidemic makes the global financial market shock. Affected by this, the willingness of Chinese families to allocate overseas assets has decreased. According to the report, compared with the first quarter, the overseas investment willingness index of various families has decreased.
At present, the situation of prevention and control of the epidemic situation in China has gradually improved. Recently, the second quarter macroeconomic data released recently is more than expected by supermarkets. GDP growth has turned from negative to positive to 3.2%, and the main economic indicators continue to improve. For the performance of the whole years economy, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Huafu securities, said that it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the economy in each quarter in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the previous quarter. This will continue into the first quarter of next year, which is likely to see double-digit year-on-year growth. Industrial Securities chief economist Wang Han also said that the third quarter of economic performance will be more optimistic. Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of first finance and Economics_ NBJ9931
For the performance of the whole years economy, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Huafu securities, said that it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the economy in each quarter in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the previous quarter. This will continue into the first quarter of next year, which is likely to see double-digit year-on-year growth. Industrial Securities chief economist Wang Han also said that the third quarter of economic performance will be more optimistic.