Another 7 trillion stimulus plan! The dollar index collapsed, gold and silver rose

category:Finance
 Another 7 trillion stimulus plan! The dollar index collapsed, gold and silver rose


Gold, silver and bitcoin remained high.

Spot gold (londongold) continued to record high, breaking $1950 / oz.

COMEX silver also hit a new high, once rising to $25 / oz, the first time since August 2013, that is, a seven-year high.

Bitcoin broke the 11000 mark at one stroke, the first time in nearly a year.

Bitcoin bears suffered heavy losses. According to coin coin data, as of 6:30 a.m. Beijing time, 44000 people have been out of positions in the past 24 hours, with an amount of 3.9 billion yuan.

Large technology stocks rose collectively, with apple up 2.37%, Amazon up 1.54%, NYSE soaring 3.16%, Google up 1.41%, Facebook up 1.21%, and Microsoft up 1.27%. Novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine was released by the US government after Moderna was allocated $472 million, and Moderna shares rose 9.2%.

This week, U.S. stocks will usher in the peak period of corporate earnings, including McDonalds, Pfizer, Googles parent company alphabet, apple, Amazon and AMD will release quarterly performance reports this week, and the trend of technology stocks remains uncertain.

Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said the expanded federal unemployment protection would be set at 70% of workers previous wages to replace the $600 a week unemployment benefits due this week;

The proposal will also pay $1200 and $2400 directly to individuals and couples, respectively, and will set the same eligibility criteria as those approved in March: checks will be issued with an average income of $75000, and individuals or couples with an average income of $99000 or more will not be able to receive them. In addition, an additional $500 will be provided for each dependant.

This means that eligible citizens can receive at least $1200 in cheques, about 8400 yuan.

In addition, the proposal will allow small businesses whose incomes have fallen by more than 50% to apply for a second wage protection program (PPP) loan; it will provide $105 billion to help schools reopen in the autumn; and it will also include $16 billion to help States improve their ability to detect new coronaviruses.

When outlining the plan today, McConnell also urged the Democratic Party to reach an agreement as soon as possible. At the same time, he said, the pandemic is not over, the economic pain is not over, so Congress cannot end.

At 6:00 p.m. local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary mnuchin and White House chief of staff meadows will meet with Senate Democratic leader Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to discuss the stimulus package and other issues.

Some market participants are not optimistic about the adoption process of the plan. The biggest difference between Republicans and Democrats is unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments, and it may take more than a week for them to reduce their differences, which means it is unlikely to reach an agreement before July 31, said Aneta markowska, an economist at Jefferies, an investment bank

White House International Security Assistant confirmed

Trump: I havent seen him lately

Novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed Obrien, national security adviser, on 27 June. On the same day, U.S. President trump responded that he had been tested by OBrien, but he has not been seen recently. So far, OBrien is the highest ranking White House official to be diagnosed with the new crown, according to overseas.com.

On the same day, trump said, I heard that he (OBrien) had a new crown test, but I havent met him, and Ill call him..

When a reporter asked when OBrien was diagnosed, trump repeatedly replied, I dont know, I dont know..

The White House also issued a statement saying that OBriens infection will not affect the president and vice president. OBrien has mild symptoms and is currently working in a safe place in isolation, and the White House national security meeting will not be interrupted.

According to extranet statistics, on May 7 this year, a close staff member of trump diagnosed the case; on May 8, Katie Miller, the spokesman of vice president burns; on July 9, a white house reporter; and on July 22, a restaurant staff member of Eisenhower administration building near the White House. In addition, a number of secret service personnel confirmed the diagnosis.

The latest epidemic data in the United States are not optimistic. According to Johns Hopkins University data, as of 15:35 on the 27th of the US Eastern time (3:35 on the 28th of Beijing time), the global cumulative number of deaths rose to 650157, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases rose to 16340152. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States was the largest, with 4271095 cases and 147253 cases respectively.

The dollar is no longer strong? Many analysts sing empty

Bridge water CEO Dario also not optimistic

Dario, the founder of Bridgewater fund and a billionaire investor, warned in an interview with Fox television on Sunday that the friction between China and the United States could turn into capital war and eventually hurt the dollar.

If (the US) laws stipulate that do not invest in China, or even detain us payments on bonds owed by China, they will have a significant impact on the value of the US dollar and so on, he said.

Dario believes that the United States is Americas own biggest enemy, which is already endangering the stability of the dollar.

If we dont work together and do the right thing, we dont increase productivity, we dont make more than we spend, and we dont build and maintain currency and balance sheet stability, Dario added We are in decline because of these things, Dario said bluntly

Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, recently said that the era of privilege of the US dollar as the worlds main reserve currency is coming to an end.

Scott minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim investment, said there was no sign that the world was questioning the value of the dollar, but it was clear that the market share of the dollar as the worlds reserve currency was slowly losing.

The largest gold ETF position is still rising

US gold concept stocks up

Gold rose at the same time, funds are also in a crazy influx, related gold theme ETF gold position is also rising steadily.

At the beginning of this year, the fund held less than 900 tons of gold. So far this year, the funds gold position has risen 37%.

Gold ETF funds in pursuit of the same time, gold concept stocks also rose. Last night, US gold concept stocks also rose.

Can gold rise? Yesterday, the investment directors office of UBS wealth management said that the gold price is expected to rise to a higher level, and correspondingly raised the gold price forecast for the next year: the target for the second half of the year will rise from the original $1900 to $2000, and the target for March and June next year will be adjusted from the original $1850 and $1800 to $1950 and $1900.

Goldman Sachs also said on the same day that the environment in which China outperformed the United States was the ideal choice for gold, which gave us more confidence in the target price of gold of US $2000 / oz.

Dollar weakness will drive us stock market crash?

Views are divided on Wall Street

There are voices in the market that, in theory, a weaker dollar will reduce the attractiveness of all dollar denominated assets to a certain extent, and US stocks happen to be dollar denominated assets.

Jeffrey Schulze, an analyst at Clearbridge investments, believes that the negative correlation between the trade weighted broad dollar index and the S & P 500 index has recently become closer. A weaker dollar does not necessarily reflect a weak U.S. economy, but a relatively strong global economy, Schultz said. That doesnt mean the U.S. stock market is bound to crash, but its likely to underperform the rest of the world in the next six months.

GAURAV saroliya, director of macro strategy at the Oxford Institute for economic research, pointed out last week that the US dollar experienced bear markets in the 1970s, late 1980s and mid-2000s. These events, rather than destabilizing global markets and the economy, are quite conducive to growth. Saloria also pointed out that since the 1970s, for most of the time in the era of free floating exchange rates, there has been a reverse link between the trend of the dollar and global economic growth.

Nicholas colas, founder of datatrek research, analyzed historical data and pointed out that when the S & P 500 bottomed out in the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the trade weighted dollar index peaked at the same time. Earlier this year, S & P hit the bottom with the new coronavirus, and thats what happened. Colas pointed out that on March 23 this year, the index reached an all-time high of 126.47, and then fluctuated downward.

Dont worry that a weaker dollar is a warning signal for the U.S. stock market to turn downward. History has proved that the opposite is true.