The Sino US relations under the trump administration are full of risks, challenges and uncertainties, which have been proved by the reality of the relations between the two countries.
There are different opinions on the status of Sino US relations, such as crossroads theory, new cold war theory, decoupling theory and partial decoupling theory. Since 2020, especially in the near future, various practices of the US government have further enhanced the cognition of the new cold war theory.
Americas dilemma to China: from public opinion shaping to policy implementation
In May, the U.S. government issued a policy document entitled the United States strategic approach to China, emphasizing the major challenges China poses to the United States in terms of economy, security and values, reiterating the failure of the US policy of engagement with China since Nixon, and clarifying the whole government strategic competition policy towards China and its implementation path.
In this context, the U.S. government has launched a series of challenges to China from the shaping of public opinion to the implementation of policies.
In terms of public opinion, from June to July, senior officials such as the assistant to the US president for national security affairs, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the attorney general, and the Secretary of state successively delivered speeches on China policy, exaggerating Chinas threat. In particular, Secretary of state pompeios speech in the Nixon Presidential Library is full of zero sum thinking and cold war consciousness.
They seem to be suffering from persecution delusion or hegemonic protection syndrome. Through subjective speculation or wanton exaggeration of the threats they face, they are paradoxically looking for suitable strategic opponents or even enemies for the United States, so as to demonstrate the moral character and global leadership of the United States, or to find evidence for the United States as the so-called indispensable country.
In terms of policy, President trump has successively signed several bills against China. The US State Department declared that Chinas claims on territorial and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea were illegal and blatantly interfered in Chinas internal affairs.
Moreover, the United States has even suspended the Fulbright exchange program and unilaterally closed the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, undermining social and cultural exchanges between the two countries and seriously violating international law and basic norms of international relations.
Source: Beijing News
In view of the actions of the US side, we should have sufficient and sufficient estimates of the possibility of further deterioration of Sino US relations. At present, both strategic and academic circles agree on the importance, complexity and sensitivity of Sino US relations. They also have a consensus on the strengthening of US strategic competition with China and the enhancement of Sino US strategic competition caused by it.
China does not recognize the new cold war between China and the United States. However, the intention and practice of the United States to shape China not only for the United States, but also for the so-called comprehensive strategic competitor of the western democratic world has become increasingly obvious.
This deliberate distortion and sensational exaggeration will undoubtedly bring great challenges to Chinas diplomacy, and will also have a great impact on Sino US relations. Needless to say, Sino US relations are at a new historical low point. Some scholars even compared the current state and trend of Sino US relations to the free fall decline.
People cant help but ask: what will the future shape of Sino US relations look like in the light of this situation? Will Sino US relations fall apart in a hard landing? Or is it to stop falling and return to normal track?
Three judgments on the future of Sino US relations
There may not be exact answers to these questions, because the influence variables are too many, too complex and too unpredictable, but the following points are certain.
First, competition will be the key word in future Sino US relations, and the nature and degree of competition will determine the state of Sino US relations.
Chinas Grand Strategy: trends, trajectories and long-term competition recently released by the RAND Corporation of the United States pointed out: China and the United States are likely to compete with each other in the future. In fact, it seems that the two countries are doomed to long-term competition, because it is impossible for both countries to withdraw from world affairs in the foreseeable future. In addition, each country regards each other as an important competitor, has deep doubts about the other partys actions and intentions, and the competition is fierce.
Of course, competition does not mean confrontation, nor does it mean the inevitable tragedy of great power politics.
However, it all depends on the strategic choice and policy interaction of the two countries. Any crazy, emotional and self righteous policy may cause adverse consequences far beyond the expectations of the decision makers themselves. Diplomacy has no trifles, prudence is the key.
Second, China and the United States will not change the conclusion that cooperation will bring benefits to both sides, while fighting will hurt both sides..
From the perspective of interdependence, Chinas dependence on and sensitivity to the United States are more prominent. This is also the premise for the US side to see itself as able to launch a preemptive strategy of tough checks and balances against China.
Pompeio showed in his speech that although China has been integrated into the world economy, it is more dependent on the United States. However, they have forgotten the experience and lesson drawn from the history of Sino US relations, that is, cooperation brings benefits to both sides, while fighting leads to both injuries. This has been proved by the past history and will be tested by the future practice.
Third, strong pressure from the US side will not get what it wants.
When the U.S. government pushes forward its policy of coercion, they only proceed from the general logic, that is, the United States is in a strategic position of superiority. As long as the pressure is large enough, the other side will certainly comply.
But they ignore the analysis of the object of pressure. The so-called know yourself and know your enemy, and you will be invincible in a hundred battles. Strategically, the US government has lost a game.
Source: Beijing News
This criticism is to the point. Indeed, the U.S. government has ignored the principles of Chinas diplomacy, Chinas history and culture, and the aspirations and spirit of the contemporary Chinese people when implementing the high pressure policy.
China pursues an independent foreign policy of peace. It will not yield to any external pressure. It will not challenge but will not be afraid of anything.
Difficulties and hardships make you a success. The Chinese nation is a nation that has experienced hardships but has continued to develop. The Chinese people are hardworking, intelligent and courageous people. This kind of nationality and peoples character is the firm guarantee for China to steadily move towards the future and realize its dream.
From this point of view, those opportunistic American politicians who are trying to seek political benefits by worsening Sino US relations should still have a humble attitude to understand Chinese history, Chinese culture and the spirit of the Chinese people, rather than disguise themselves as savior, teacher or liberator. If you have to do this, you will get nothing but making fun of yourself.
Scholar: if the Chinese card can save Trumps election, it means that the American system is hopeless
This year is the election year of the United States, which is the time to redistribute and shuffle the political power of the United States. In order to fight for political power, all parties naturally have to show their magic power. Originally, trump has the ruling advantage and administrative resources, and the data of economic growth and employment rate have always been brilliant. But I didnt expect the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, which hit the economy hard. The unemployment rate in April was as high as 14.7%, higher than that during the great depression in the 1930s. In May, finance minister mchin announced that it would rise to 25%.
Although the United States has paid such a huge economic cost, it has not controlled the epidemic for more than four months. On the contrary, it has repeatedly set a new record, with more than 60000, 70000 and even 80000 new infections every day. Obviously, there is no way to control the epidemic through control measures. The whole United States is immersed in the virus. For this reason, Obama broke the Convention of former president does not criticize the current president, and severely criticized Trumps epidemic prevention policy, which was totally incompetent, resulting in the spread of the epidemic in the United States, which was a disaster.
When the domestic affairs are in a mess, Trump and the Republican Party are pinning their hopes on playing the China card. As early as April 26, the 57 page election memorandum sent to the partys campaign team by the Republican Senate National Committee was accidentally exposed, suggesting that the Republican candidates should actively attack China when they are involved in the new coronavirus crisis, and also attack the weakness of China of the Democrats. The aim is to make China a central topic in the 2020 campaign.
In April, there was no tragic death of black Floyd in the United States, and the epidemic situation did not develop to the extent that it is out of control. However, at that time, the Republican Party had taken attacking China as the main means to win the election. Now that Trumps poll lags behind Biden, the Democratic candidate, has reached double digits, making China a scapegoat is the only straw for the Republican Party to win the election.
This scene shows us the extremely ugly side of the US political system: when the world needs to work together to deal with the threat of a deadly virus, when the virus threatens the lives and health of the American people, the United States, due to institutional reasons, not only does the countrys leaders and ruling parties not put their efforts into global cooperation and do their best to help their own people, but use their precious resources to obstruct it China is actively helping the global fight against the epidemic.