In the past two years, in order to suppress Huaweis leading position in the field of communications and smart phones, the United States has done everything possible.
As early as in the CES period in 2018, the cooperation between Huawei mobile phone and at & T, the second largest mobile operator in the United States, failed because of the US governments call to stop. Subsequently, in August 2018, Australia announced that Huawei and ZTE were banned from supplying equipment for their planned 5g network. In November 2018, the New Zealand governments communications security agency rejected the proposal of spark, a New Zealand telecom operator, to use Huawei 5g equipment in its network on the ground of significant national security risks.
Since then, the United States has been pressing its allies, such as Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, claiming that Huaweis telecommunication equipment has security risks and asked its allies to give up using Huaweis equipment. The United States has also threatened Britain and Germany, saying that if it continues to use Huaweis 5g equipment, it will not share key intelligence with it. In addition, the United States has warned Brazil not to use Huawei 5g equipment, saying Huawei equipment is risky.
However, for European countries, in their own interests, they did not fully follow the advice of the United States. Because compared with Ericsson, Nokia and other telecom equipment manufacturers, Huaweis telecom equipment is not only excellent in performance, but also cheap. Moreover, in the construction of 4G network in Europe, Huaweis equipment accounts for a high proportion, and the replacement cost will undoubtedly be very high. Therefore, many European telecom operators are strongly opposed to the possible Huawei ban. This has also affected the decision-making of European governments.
Take the United Kingdom as an example, under the continuous pressure of the United States, the British government still announced at the end of January 2020 that it would allow Huawei limited participation in the construction of 5g network in the UK. According to the British side, high-risk suppliers will be excluded from the sensitive core projects of network construction, and their participation in the non sensitive part is limited to 35%.
The UKs move has drawn dissatisfaction from the US. On January 31, 2020, 42 representatives from both parties in the United States also wrote a joint letter asking the UK to consider the consequences of using Huawei products. In early March, another 20 US senators signed a joint letter asking British legislators to reconsider their decision on whether to use Huawei. However, the UK side has not changed.
However, with the introduction of a new US ban on Huawei on May 15 this year, Huawei is prohibited from using US software to design chips, and wafer foundry factories are prohibited from using US equipment to manufacture chips for Huawei. This also makes Huaweis self-developed chip subject to great restrictions. Obviously, the purpose of the U.S. move is to further strangle Huawei. The attitude of European countries towards Huaweis 5g equipment has also changed.
On July 14 local time, the British government finally made a decision on the 5g network cooperation between the UK and Huawei, announcing that it would stop purchasing new Huawei equipment from December 31, 2020. In addition, Huawei equipment currently used in the UK 5g network must be removed by 2027.
Kevan Jones, now a member of the house of Commons intelligence and security committee, believes us pressure has shaken the British government. Security should be the top priority, of course, but it is clear that the decision was made for geopolitical reasons, not for the economic costs of the UK.
Huaweis great crisis
From the present point of view, under the continuous pressure of the United States against Huawei and European allies, many European countries have begun to compromise. This will be a huge crisis for Huawei.
Huawei has a history of more than 20 years in the European telecom market. It has invested a lot, and of course, it has gained a lot.
According to a new study previously released by strand consult, Huawei and ZTE have successfully replaced Ericsson and Nokia in dozens of European networks in 2008-2020 by providing low-cost transactions and competitive products, gaining more than half of the market share.
Strandconsult reports that 16 of the 43 operators in Europe have purchased all 4gran devices from Chinese suppliers. At present, Huawei occupies about 45% of the European 4gran product market, while ZTE has a 7% share.
However, if European countries, led by Britain and France, begin to turn to the United States, ban Huaweis 5g equipment and demand to replace Huaweis telecommunication equipment, then this will undoubtedly be a huge crisis for Huawei. This means that Huaweis investment in the European telecom market over the past 20 years or so may return to zero in the next few years.
Of course, the actual situation may not be so pessimistic, because the current situation is mainly caused by the continuous intensification of the contradictions between the US government and China under Trumps administration. If trump fails to be re elected in this years general election, the relationship between the United States and China is likely to ease. In this context, European countries ban on Huawei is expected to be lifted.
According to the guardian on July 18, the British government and Huawei executives had an in-depth discussion and confidential communication a few days before the ban. Huawei has been told geopolitical factors have influenced the decision, but if trump is not re elected (there will be a US presidential election in November 2020), it will be possible to reconsider the decision in the future.
The United States will start to promote developing countries to replace Huawei equipment
Similarly, for developing countries with limited economic development, Huawei telecom equipment with high quality and low price is more favored. Because of this, it will be even more difficult for these developing countries to completely replace Huaweis equipment.
In order to promote developing countries to ban Huaweis equipment, the United States may provide financial support for it.
According to the Nikkei Asia review, Keith krach, under secretary of state for U.S. economic growth, energy and environment affairs, said at a round table meeting with Nikkei and other Japanese media: there are a lot of things we can do to help developing countries replace Chinas equipment. Government agencies such as the US International Development Finance Corporation and the Export Import Bank of the United States will provide assistance Help.
It is worth noting that in June this year, the Ministry of communications of India has asked bsnl (Bharat sanchar Nigam Ltd.) and mtnl (mahanagar telephone Nigam Ltd.) to re tender the bidding scheme of 4G telecommunication equipment with a value of nearly 8 billion US dollars, so as to exclude Huawei and ZTE. In addition, sources from the Indian government confirmed that the Indian government is planning to completely ban Indian state-owned telecom operators from purchasing telecom equipment made by Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE.
In the long run, Krasch said the US plans to expand its 5g clean route, which aims to remove suppliers such as Huawei and ZTE from 5g communications in and out of US diplomatic facilities.
In addition to the crackdown on Huawei 5g, the United States may also plan to crack down on Huaweis HMS service, Hongmeng operating system, data center, cloud service and submarine optical cable.
We will soon expand the program beyond 5g, including app, system, data center, cloud and submarine optical cable, Krasch said at the days event
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