This is how the house cattle come! Household credit funds did not flow into the stock market

category:Finance
 This is how the house cattle come! Household credit funds did not flow into the stock market


Tu Guangshao, President of Shanghai New Financial Research Institute, believes that at present, with the changes of per capita income, population structure and urbanization rate, the financial needs of domestic families are experiencing explosive growth. At the same time, the differentiation of income levels will inevitably lead to the differentiation of financial needs of families of different net worth groups In the transformation stage of wealth structure, we should combine the characteristics with pertinence, and better adapt to the trend and characteristics of stratification.

Report: Chinese families prefer to buy funds rather than stocks

This China family wealth index research report takes the Chinese family wealth index with 100 as the benchmark line, calculates the index changes through a wide range of research, so as to track and observe the changes of Chinese family financial management behavior and concept. It shows that since the first quarter, Chinas family online investment willingness index has averaged 109.6, and the willingness to invest online has increased significantly.

Wind data shows that by the middle of 2019, Chinas total household wealth has increased from $3.7 trillion in 2000 to $63.8 trillion, accounting for 18% of the worlds total, ranking second only to the United States. In other words, Chinas per capita wealth is equivalent to about 2800 US dollars in 2000, and will increase to about 45000 US dollars in 2019.

Under the strong financial demand, where are we going to invest money? Tu Guangshao, chairman of the Shanghai New Financial Research Institute, believes that there are three types of transformation trends in Chinas household wealth structure: from savings to financial management, from real estate to financial assets, from domestic market to overseas market.

Since the reform and opening up, family finance has basically undergone several transformations, with different characteristics at different times. Tu Guangshao shares that, with the changes of per capita income, population structure and urbanization rate, the financial needs of domestic families are experiencing explosive growth. At the same time, the differentiation of income levels will inevitably lead to the differentiation of financial needs of families with different net worth groups. This requires that we should be able to grasp the different demands of different income groups for financial management and better adapt to the stratification Trends and characteristics.

The index report shows a similar view. Chinese households willingness to deposit index fell from 111.1 in the first quarter to 102.7 in the second quarter. China has always been a big savings country. The change of this data shows that more and more Chinese households no longer regard saving as the first choice of wealth management.

The stock market has soared this year, and the publics demand for stocks and fund assets has increased. But unexpectedly, in the second quarter, the willingness of Chinese households to allocate stocks was only 90, while that of funds was 96. If the focus is on families with financial assets of more than 100000, the stock allocation willingness is 97.16 and the fund is 103.91. This shows that Chinese families prefer to buy funds rather than stocks.

Changes in the size of the stock and fund markets confirm these trends. Wind data shows that since January, the growth rate of Chinas stock market has declined and the growth rate of fund scale has increased. Take April as an example, the month on month growth rate of stock market scale was 5.2%, while that of fund scale was 6.9%. In 2020, more than half of the new citizens under the age of 30 account for more than half, and the group of additional investment funds is younger and more educated.

The demand of family financial management is hierarchical, and online financing is more inclusive

After the epidemic, except for the low-income group, the willingness of online investment of all income groups increased. Specifically, the online investment willingness index of households with annual income of 50000-100000 is 107.1, and that of families with annual income of more than 1 million is 116.5. It can be seen that most families accept the way of online investment after the epidemic.

Moreover, online investment will further benefit the elderly and non first and second tier urban groups. From the perspective of age, the online investment willingness index of young families is higher, and the online investment willingness index of the group under the age of 30 reaches 108.8, but the online investment willingness of middle-aged and elderly families is also increased, and the online investment willingness index of the group aged 51-60 is 103.6; From the perspective of city type, the online investment willingness of families in first tier cities is higher, with the index value of 109.0, while the online investment willingness of families in sixth tier cities also increases, with the index value of 102.2. From this point of view, online investment after the epidemic has also benefited the elderly and non first and second tier urban groups.

The overall change of financial services is a very important point worthy of attention. The pattern of how household assets are invested has changed. Tu Guangshao believes that these new changes include: specialization, which includes institutionalization, institutionalization, investment consulting, and intelligent investment mode.

Credit funds did not flow into the capital market

Under the epidemic situation, will credit funds flow into the capital market? One of the concerns is that this report believes that the regression results show that the relationship between changes in liabilities and the value (price) of stocks and funds is not significant, indicating that credit funds have not flowed into the capital market.

The audience of credit has obviously declined, but the credit funds have not entered the stock market. In addition, groups with increased or decreased liabilities have no willingness to invest in stocks, indicating that credit funds have not flowed into the stock market; compared with stocks, people with increased liabilities are more willing to invest in fixed deposit or insurance assets.

According to the analysis of the report, meeting daily consumption is the main reason for household credit demand. According to the quarterly data of chfs, the top three reasons for households to need funds are: daily consumption, education and health care.

Different net worth level family needs are different. 41.7% of low-income families need funds for medical treatment, while high-income families have higher demand for housing and financial products.

From the perspective of age group, young families mainly need to buy houses and cars, middle-aged families are mainly for education, and elderly families are mainly for medical treatment.

The report points out that consumption debt and future expectations have an important impact on the daily consumption of households - as household consumption debt increases, consumption also increases simultaneously, and consumer credit has a positive effect on consumption. Although the increase of household financial assets has also brought about an increase in consumption, household consumption is also greatly affected by the future expectation of the economy.

We should encourage the expansion of inclusive credit services, improve the pertinence of credit policies, and continue to favor the relatively sinking market and vulnerable groups. Gan Li said that during the epidemic period, the credit policy was moderately loose, and the difficulty of obtaining loans for consumer loans among low-income families in the second quarter was significantly lower than that in the first quarter, indicating that the credit audience group has sunk, in a comprehensive view, there are still some groups whose capital needs have not been met.

Compared with high-income groups, it is relatively difficult for low-income groups to obtain credit. In the first quarter, 19.9% of households with an annual income of 50000 or less had difficulty getting loans for consumption, while 12.6% of households had increased difficulty in obtaining loans for business operation, but this phenomenon eased in the second quarter. For the next quarter, the report is generally optimistic about changes in household wealth and income and expenditure.