Analysts said that although the price of gold has been high, but under the three wheel drive, golds rising market is expected to continue, which is expected to impact the $2000 / oz mark.
A full explosion of precious metals
On the morning of the 27th, the international gold price surpassed the record high of US $1921.15/oz and reached a new high. As of 11:30 Beijing time on the 27th, London spot gold rose to the highest level of US $1940 / oz.
On Friday (24th), the international gold price once again crossed the $1900 / oz mark, hitting a record high of $1921.15/oz set in 2011. It is reported that this is the second time that the international gold price has broken through the 1900 US dollar / ounce level.
In the futures market, the main contract of Comex gold futures rose steadily, rising 2% as of 11:30 on the 27th, breaking through the 1930 US dollar / ounce barrier, exceeding the previous high of 1923.7 US dollars / ounce in 2011, and setting a record high together with spot gold.
In addition, by the end of the morning, the main contracts of Shanghai gold futures rose by nearly 3% to 435 yuan / g, a new record.
As the leading big brother, gold and silver assets echoed each other, and the precious metal market was fully ignited.
On the London market, spot silver rose in a straight line, and the intraday increase once expanded to more than 7%, which continued to set a new high in seven years.
On the A-share market, the precious metal plate trend is strong. As of press release, the precious metal index (wind) rose nearly 8%. Shengda resources and western gold were trading, Chifeng gold was trading at one time, Shandong gold, Zhongjin gold and humon shares rose by more than 8%, Yintai gold and Hunan gold rose by more than 7%.
Why is the precious metal market irresistible and constantly surpassing imagination?
The answer may be the interwoven resonance of risk aversion, currency over issuance and the weakening dollar, which constitutes a three-wheel drive.
First, repeated overseas outbreaks and geopolitical factors have exacerbated peoples concerns about global economic growth and encouraged the risk aversion sentiment in financial markets.
Second, overseas liquidity is rampant, and extremely low interest rates support the strength of precious metal prices.
In response to the impact of the epidemic, the main central banks, represented by the Federal Reserve, have launched the money printing machine. After a fierce operation, a large amount of redundant money has been formed, and a large amount of funds have been found in the financial market. In the traditional safe haven camp, however, bonds have fallen in attractiveness. The bond market yield has been pushed to a historical low, the scale of negative interest rate assets has reached a new high, and the relative performance price ratio of gold and other precious metal assets has been improved.
Third, the recent significant weakening of the US dollar has also significantly stimulated the price rise of precious metals.
While gold and silver prices have both reached periodic and even historic highs, the US dollar index has fallen to a relatively low level in recent years.
The trend of the US dollar is weakening
Precious metals rise smoothly
The U.S. dollar index may be facing a strong and weak transition. On March 20, the U.S. dollar index broke through 103 for a time, then turned downward, and has been in the downward range since July. The weakening trend of the US dollar will have an important impact on the short-term trend of precious metal prices.
Xie Yaxuan, chief Macro Analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that since 1973, the US dollar has run a two-and-a-half cycle, and will enter a continuous weakening trend in the future, completing the remaining half round of dollar downward cycle.
CICC believes that looking forward, the U.S. dollar, which is at a historical high, is at the turning point from strong to weak, and is about to start a new round of long-term weakening trend. There are three main reasons for the long-term weakness. Firstly, the risk of EU disintegration has decreased significantly and the value of euro has been revalued; secondly, the security of US assets has been reduced due to the aggravation of political friction, and the currency selection of global foreign exchange reserves and other assets is expected to be more diversified, thus reducing the exposure to us dollar reserves; thirdly, globalization has stagnated or even regressed, and the demand for us dollar has decreased.
Xie Yaxuan predicted that the dollar index may fall by 30% in the future, returning to the level of around 70. According to the historical depreciation range of the US dollar and the changes of the high points in each round, it is estimated that the low point of the weakening of the US dollar index in this round may be about 70, but the process may take about 6 years. Xie Yaxuan believes that if the U.S. dollar tends to weaken, the exchange rates of euro, yen and RMB will strengthen, commodity prices will stop falling, and gold prices will rise. CICC believes that a weaker dollar will help create a good external environment for financial markets and long-term growth in emerging markets, as well as the performance of commodities such as gold. Shen Xinfeng also believes that the weakening dollar is good for gold, silver, crude oil and other commodities from the pricing level. However, dollar pricing is only one factor, and the trend of commodities with strong industrial attributes ultimately depends on its own fundamentals. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NF4425
Xie Yaxuan predicted that the dollar index may fall by 30% in the future, returning to the level of around 70. According to the historical depreciation range of the US dollar and the changes of the high points in each round, it is estimated that the low point of the weakening of the US dollar index in this round may be about 70, but the process may take about 6 years.