How will the release of the third batch of reduction list affect the market?

category:Finance
 How will the release of the third batch of reduction list affect the market?


The agency believes that the impact on the subsequent operation of the science and technology innovation board and the growth enterprise market will not be great. During the period of the lifting of the ban, the actual pressure of reducing holdings may be relatively limited, and the impact of the first batch of companies may be more on the risk preference than on the actual capital side.

The list of the third batch of shares reduction of science and Technology Innovation Board

As of Fridays close, hongruan technology fell 6.20% to 64.30 yuan / share.

(image source: wind financial terminal APP)

This year, 68 companies in the science and technology innovation board were lifted

After the first anniversary of the listing of the science and technology innovation board, a number of companies have ushered in the lifting of the ban on the circulation of individual shares.

According to wind data, this year, 68 companies on the science and technology innovation board were lifted, involving 6.022 billion shares (excluding the shares allocated by the initial institutions), and the market value was 395.653 billion yuan based on Fridays closing price.

Take history as a mirror and analyze the impact of lifting the ban

At that time, the peak of IPO appeared in two months after the lifting of the ban on the IPO of China CITIC Group Co., Ltd. Due to the considerable increase in the market of the 33 science and Technology Innovation Board companies, the floating profits of relevant institutions and shareholders are relatively large, and the institutions willingness to reduce their holdings may be strong, which will have a more obvious impact on the science and technology innovation board in the short term. From the perspective of the industry distribution of the proportion of the lifting market value to the total equity, military industry, public utilities, medical biology, electronics and mechanical equipment accounted for the largest proportion.

However, referring to the historical trend of gem, most institutions are optimistic.

China Southern Fund commented that in the short term, the impact of the intensive lifting of the science and technology innovation board on the follow-up science and technology innovation board and gem operation is not expected to be great, mainly due to the following two reasons:

On the one hand, from the perspective of individual stocks, there have been major adjustments in the past few trading days, and the market has partially digested the impact of lifting the ban in advance. On the other hand, from the perspective of historical experience,

The plate with higher prosperity has stronger shock resistance when facing the impact of lifting the ban. Although the value of the science and technology innovation board is high, it is still in the high boom stage of emerging industries as a whole. It is estimated that the impact may not last for a long time. After the boots are landed, the follow-up trend of the science and technology innovation board and the gem will show strong resilience.

Generally speaking, we are optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value of the science and technology innovation board. From the perspective of global asset allocation, Chinas equity market is attractive, and the long-term trend of foreign investment into A-shares is strong. The recent profit-making effect of the stock market and public funds has accelerated the entry of residents funds into the market. We remain optimistic about the medium and long-term market.

According to the previous analysis by Wang Hanfeng of CICC, although the scale of the first batch of companies to be lifted from the scientific and technological innovation board is relatively large and accounts for a relatively high proportion of the circulating market value, the actual pressure to reduce holdings during the period of the lifting of the ban may be relatively limited. The impact of the first batch of companies on the science and technology innovation board may be more risk preference than actual capital, mainly due to the following reasons:

2. At present, there are more restrictions on the first release of the ban under the current rules.

4. The establishment of the science and technology innovation board index and the inclusion of the new Shanghai composite index into the science and Technology Innovation Board will also reduce the expected holding.

According to Zhang Qiyaos Research Report of Guosheng securities, theoretically, the lifting of the ban will bring about the centralized cashing of the restricted stock income, and then form a negative impact on the market. However, combined with the experience of the first batch of Companies in the gem, the impact of the lifting of the ban is mainly reflected in the following two trading days, and the impact range of both individual stocks and the whole plate is relatively limited.

According to the report of Huatai strategy research team, the liquidity of the science and technology innovation board may face greater pressure, and the stock price may be under pressure in the short term, and may cause certain disturbance to the science and technology sector. However, the possibility of sustained large impact is small, and the impact on individual stocks is greater than that on the overall stock market.

Source: Wind Information Editor: Yang Qian_ NF4425