Among them, Guizhou Maotai started from an early low of 949.02 yuan to a historical high of 1787 yuan, with an increase of 88.3%; the shares of Wuliangye (000858. SZ), Luzhou Laojiao (000568. SZ) and other top liquor enterprises also reached new highs, with Wuliangye stock price starting from 97.32 yuan to a historical high of 226 yuan, an increase of more than 132.2%; Luzhou Laojiao started from 64.88 yuan to a new high of 131.2 yuan, It rose 102.2%, while the whole liquor sector rose by an astonishing amount.
On the other hand, in addition to the stock price, after several rounds of price increases, the prices of the core products of the head liquor enterprises have also reached a historical high. Although liquor sales were affected by the epidemic this year, the product prices of first-line famous liquor still kept rising.
The first financial reporter visited the market and found that the market price of 500 ml of 53 degree Feitian Maotai, which has the wind vane of Baijiu, is still rising this year. According to a local Maotai dealer in Guizhou, before the Dragon Boat Festival in 2020, the first batch price of 53 degree Feitian Maotai rose to about 2400 yuan / bottle. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of liquor dropped, but recently the first batch price rose again to 2550 yuan / bottle. Among some chain liquor stores in Beijing, the retail price of 53 degree Feitian Maotai has exceeded 2800 yuan.
According to another Beijing retailer, the first batch price of Feitian Maotai in 2018 has reached 2800-2900 yuan / bottle, and the price level of Maotai liquor has exceeded that before the last round of adjustment in 2012.
After the epidemic situation was controlled, the price of Wuliangye 500 ml dropped back to 900 yuan / bottle. However, with the gradual recovery of the market recently, Wuliangyes approval price is currently between 930 yuan and 940 yuan / bottle.
Moreover, from the trend, liquor enterprises have the intention to further increase the price.
At the beginning of July this year, Luzhou Laojiao raised the recommended retail price of core product 52 degree Guojiao 1573 from 1099 yuan / bottle to 1399 yuan / bottle, and issued a notice on July 21 to suspend receiving 1573 orders and supply, and to carry out a new round of price control. In July, Jinshiyuan (603369. SH) also raised the retail price and group purchase price of some of its Guoyuan products by 10-15 yuan / bottle.
At the same time of high liquor price and stock price, liquor enterprises are also accelerating the expansion of production.
On July 12, Wuliangye announced that it would start the 120000 ton ecological brewing project (phase I), with a total investment of about 1.268 billion yuan, and this is also after the 100000 tons technical transformation project in 2017, Wuliangye announced to expand its production again; in March this year, Luzhou Laojiao also announced the issuance of bonds to raise 4 billion yuan, most of which will be used for the second phase of the technical transformation project of the brewery, and the production capacity of base liquor is expected to be increased by 100000 tons.
Market worries are building up
On the evening of July 15, the learning group, a new media platform under the peoples daily, published the smelly Maotai, who is paying the bill? u300bWhy does Maotai become a hard currency of corruption? The article points out that wine is for drinking, not for frying, not for putrefaction.
The next day, Guizhou Maotai stock price fell nearly 8%, closed at 1614 yuan, and the market value evaporated by 173.99 billion yuan. Driven by Maotai, the liquor industry fell in an all-round way, and many stocks fell to a stop. In the following week, liquor stocks did not maintain the previous strong trend, with slight wind and straw movement, that is, the rate went down first. On the last trading day (July 24), liquor stocks fell again.
In the view of wine industry analyst Cai Xuefei, this is also a release of market panic. Recently, liquor stocks have risen too fast, and there is panic in the market itself. Moreover, the stock prices of some A-share listed liquor companies have deviated from their actual operation.
As early as in a forum at the end of 2018, Li Baofang, then chairman of Maotai, publicly said that the growth of liquor industry was characterized by the continuous accumulation of market superior resources to the head market, and Matthew effect was obvious, but it was not the industry normal. The base number of large enterprises was already large, and it was impossible to grow at a high speed indefinitely, which was not in line with the economic law.
Previous grassroots survey data of China Merchants Securities showed that during the Dragon Boat Festival, Maotais dynamic sales recovered to the same level last year, Wuliangye recovered 80% to 90%, and liquor brands in other regions recovered 70% to 80%.
In the sales terminal part, the person in charge of a domestic chain listed liquor company told the first finance and economics reporter that from April to May this year, the companys sales only recovered 70% to 80%, while the sales in June just recovered to the same level of last year and increased slightly. During the visit, most wine merchants pinned their growth this year on the mid autumn and Spring Festival markets.
In addition, behind the fluctuation of liquor stock prices, there is a layer of worry about the future adjustment expectation of the industry, which is also the sequelae of the deep adjustment of liquor industry in 2012.
The development peak of the last round of liquor industry was in 2011. In that year, the liquor price rose rapidly, and the market price of Maotai once exceeded 2200 yuan / bottle. However, after a series of major events such as plasticizer, the liquor industry ended the golden decade and turned into a period of deep adjustment. Especially in the mid autumn of 2012, due to the shrinking market demand, the rapid increase of inventory and serious channel pressure, the liquor industry finally ended its golden decade Dealers sold a lot of goods, the price of high-end liquor collapsed, and the price of a large number of famous liquor products was cut back.
The last deep adjustment was a hard landing for the industry. Therefore, when liquor rose to a high level again, the reaction became sensitive to the change of policy direction.
Under the epidemic situation, liquor has entered a new adjustment period
In the view of the industry, the liquor industry at a high level is indeed at the crossroads of a new adjustment period.
According to the work report of the Fifth Council released by China Liquor Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as China Liquor Association) this month, the sales revenue of Liquor Enterprises above Designated Size in China will start to increase again from 2018, while the growth rate of net profit in the past three years has shown an explosive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, 21.5% and 13.7%, respectively.
According to song Shuyu, assistant director of China liquor industry, the liquor industry has been rebounding since 2016. After three years of rapid development, even if there is no epidemic situation, 2020 should be the year of industry adjustment. The industry can not always grow at such a high speed. However, the sudden epidemic situation will increase the scope of industrial adjustment. Liquor enterprises should take the opportunity to actively touch the bottom.
However, the new round of adjustment of liquor industry is completely different from the market situation in 2012.
Cheng Wansong, Secretary General of Beijing liquor circulation industry association, told reporters of China first finance and economics that 2012 was not so much an adjustment as an industry shock, forcing liquor enterprises to go out of the comfort zone of political and business consumption and turn to mass consumption, and the transformation of consumer groups needs time. On the other hand, the interaction between liquor market sales and production plan is relatively slow, and the adjustment of production plan often lags behind the change of market sales.
In his opinion, at present, the transformation of consumer groups has been completed, and the initiative of liquor enterprises to touch the bottom is also a way to increase business flexibility. After the outbreak of the epidemic, consumer demand is restrained and channels are under pressure. Liquor enterprises can also consider actively lowering the growth target of revenue or profit, accelerate the adjustment and digestion of inventory, and improve the health of their business.
Because the next stage of liquor industry extrusion growth will be more intense.
According to the data of China Liquor Association, the growth of liquor listed companies in recent three years is behind the cruel industry elimination competition. In the past five years, the number of Enterprises above designated size decreased from 2551 to 2021, while the total production decreased from 62.24 million kiloliters to 48.986 million kiloliters, a decrease of 25.6%.
Chinas liquor industry has entered a new stage, so many liquor enterprises will not be needed in the future. Cai Xuefei told the first finance and economics reporter that the new round of adjustment is the beginning of a new round of internal integration in the industry against the background that Chinas liquor production capacity has decreased significantly, but the product price has been significantly upgraded. However, the epidemic has accelerated the elimination process of small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the information disclosed at the shareholders meeting of Luzhou Laojiao held at the end of June this year, many small and medium-sized liquor enterprises have been on the verge of death in the past five months, and the period from July to October is a ghost gate for many medium price products. Xiao Zhuqing, a liquor expert, also believes that in the new round of liquor industry adjustment, the general direction of structural adjustment will not change, and market share will accelerate to focus on top enterprises; on the other hand, the market structure of national liquor brands has been determined, and most liquor listed companies are provincial leaders, and there may be more mergers and acquisitions between them and regional liquor enterprises in the future. Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of first finance and Economics_ NBJ9931
Chinas liquor industry has entered a new stage, so many liquor enterprises will not be needed in the future. Cai Xuefei told the first finance and economics reporter that the new round of adjustment is the beginning of a new round of internal integration in the industry against the background that Chinas liquor production capacity has decreased significantly, but the product price has been significantly upgraded.
However, the epidemic has accelerated the elimination process of small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the information disclosed at the shareholders meeting of Luzhou Laojiao held at the end of June this year, many small and medium-sized liquor enterprises have been on the verge of death in the past five months, and the period from July to October is a ghost gate for many medium price products.