A shares press the bull market pause button? Stock or house? Li Xunlei said so

category:Finance
 A shares press the bull market pause button? Stock or house? Li Xunlei said so


The reporter of daily economic news (micro signal: nbdnews) has noticed that in fact, due to the black swan event in the game between China and the United States, there were many times before the market plummeted. How can a shares go after the big drop? Historical data already have rules. In addition, is the current A-share market bull turn back or the end of the bull market?

A shares have experienced three important time points of sharp decline

On July 24, the A-share market, under the continuous disturbance of the negative external conditions, the three major indexes fell by more than 3% one after another. Panic selling concentrated on fleeing, and there were hundreds of down limit stocks. According to the historical law, due to the black swan in the game between China and the United States, it seems that A-share has a strong cure ability after a short-term sharp fall.

First, on March 22, 2018, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on US $60 billion of Chinese goods. On March 23, the Shanghai stock index fell 110 points, or 3.39%. The market adjusted in place one day, and then the Shanghai index has been in the low range of 3000-3200 points for nearly two months. From the perspective of the gem index, on March 23, it fell by more than 5.02%, but the gem index rose by 3.16% on March 26, 2018, 3.6% on March 27, and 3.16% on March 30, 2018. At that time, the gem index was between 1600 and 1800. For the markets resistance to fall, some market analysis thinks that the main reason is that China still maintained a moderately loose monetary policy at that time.

Secondly, on June 15, 2018, the United States announced that it would impose tariffs on the first batch of goods on the list on July 6, 2018. On June 19, the Shanghai stock index fell 114 points to below 2900 points, and the lowest in the day was 2871 points, closing down 3.78%. After that, the market continued to consolidate and gradually recovered the lost land on July 24, 2018. The gem index fell by 5.76% on June 19, 2018, and rebounded by 1.08% on June 20, 2018. After that, the gem index rose by 1.71% on June 26 and 4.08% on June 29, recovering the lost land in a few days.

The third time point is on May 5, 2019, when Sino US trade frictions escalated, and the US tariff on US $200 billion of Chinese goods was raised from 10% to 25%. Affected by this, the Shanghai stock index fell 171 points on May 6, 2019, closing down 5.58%, followed by a small decline in the three trading days. The Shanghai Stock Index maintained a year or so, fluctuating between 2600 and 3100. At that time, the domestic macro environment was gradually relaxed, the liquidity remained stable, and the external impact was limited.

Judging from the major nodes of the three Sino US games, A-shares have undergone a hundred point level adjustment. However, after the fact, external factors only have a strong impact on the market in the short term, and the real medium and long-term factors that determine A-share are still monetary policy.

Beijing Star Stone Investment believes that last Fridays black swan led to a more obvious market correction. This kind of black swan may cause some disturbance to the short-term market, but it will not change the long-term trend of the market. In the medium term, the market will enter the performance verification period, and the enterprises with real performance support may enjoy the dual drive of performance and valuation.

Looking back at the first half of 2020, the rise in the market is mainly due to the value increase brought about by the economic recovery, the control of the epidemic situation and the relatively loose monetary policy. In the second half of 2020, we believe that the market will enter the performance verification period. In this process, the differentiation among enterprises may be intensified: those companies with real performance may enjoy both performance and valuation For those enterprises whose performance has not been verified, the attention of funds will gradually decrease. In the long run, the achievements in the transformation of domestic economic structure are beginning to emerge, and a new pattern of dual cycle development with domestic circulation as the main factor and international and domestic mutual promotion is taking shape; the superimposed capital market reform has accelerated, and the long-term trend of A-share market has not changed. In the post epidemic era, the current domestic economy is gradually returning to normal, and overseas economies are expected to recover to the quasi normal level in the second half of the year, thus driving the recovery of internal and external demand. The overall profitability of listed companies is expected to be restored. The superimposed countercyclical adjustment policy will still take effect, and all types of growth stocks have good investment opportunities. Growth stocks in the fields of science and technology, medicine and other fields represent the long-term development direction, and have a large space for long-term growth. Although the structural market in the early stage has a certain overdraft for the growth of some enterprises, there are still many enterprises with good quality in relatively low position and have strong investment value. In addition, there are also quite a number of high-quality enterprises in the consumption and cycle category, which have outstanding performance price ratio in the current market.

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Recently, A-shares have been rising. In a short period of 20 trading days, the Shanghai index has risen from 2900 to more than 3400 points. However, due to external factors, there has been a substantial adjustment. Next, will the market continue to fluctuate widely or will there be a directional choice? According to the recent survey data of private placement network, 72.32% of private placement think that the resistance of 3500 points of Shanghai stock index is relatively large, and the incremental capital slows down, then the stock market will continue to fluctuate. 27.68% of private placement think that the bull market trend is still in the middle of the market. After the impact of the first round of lifting the ban on the science and technology innovation board, a shares will return to the rising channel.

According to Anyue investment, before July, the market structure was extremely divided, high valued stocks of medicine and consumption continued to rise, and undervalued industries such as banks and real estate continued to rub on the ground. After that, there was a style switch, and the stock prices of banks, real estate and cycle began to rise. These industries accounted for a large proportion of the index, which led to the rise of the index. The profit-making effect in the market was obvious, attracting retail funds to enter the market, the market volume was enlarged, and the market activity was greatly increased. The reasons for the recent market decline are firstly due to the fact that the economic data in the first half of the year are obviously better than expected, which leads to the worry of tightening the policy margin; secondly, there are more disturbances in Sino US relations; thirdly, SMIC international IPO leads to the blood sucking effect. For the future, we think that it is the adjustment in the bull market. If we do not change the tone of the bull market, the real ending signal or the factors that kill the bull market are the clear credit contraction or the top and fall of the economic cycle, which are not available at present.

Ding Ye investment fund manager Lai Mingxin is still optimistic about the future direction of a shares. He thinks that the probability of overall bull market in the short term is small, but the market will continue to be dominated by structural market. Firstly, the overall domestic liquidity is still relatively abundant, which is conducive to the development of the capital market; secondly, the domestic epidemic situation is well controlled, and the economic recovery is relatively certain. Compared with foreign countries, Chinas economic performance will be more brilliant. In this case, overseas capital inflow is still a long-term trend; and the growth mode of domestic economy is changing, which is driven by the previous Troika Driven by domestic demand and technological development, this is a long-term evolution process. As a national strategic development, science and technology field relies more on the multi-level capital market with direct financing as the main factor. Therefore, the state will pay more and more attention to the capital market. Moreover, the domestic investment philosophy is also in the process of transformation. The institutional investors of A-share market are accelerating, and the market is developing in a more healthy direction.

Lai Mingxin also pointed out that there are relatively unfavorable factors for the market. Although the impact of the market on trade friction has been predicted, it is impossible to rule out the possibility of some unexpected changes. Whether it is the impact of trade friction or the situation of overseas epidemic situation out of control, Chinas economy will be affected in turn. In addition, the supply of stock in the market is increasing rapidly, the pace of the comprehensive registration system is speeding up, and the pool is becoming larger. If the increment of newly injected water is insufficient, there will still be pressure on the water level to drop. Therefore, the basis of the current overall bull market is not reliable. In terms of the long cycle, A-share will be gradually oscillating upward.

The organization emphasizes cherishing the opportunity of adjustment

On July 26, Guosheng securities issued a strategy research report, emphasizing that it cherishes the opportunity for adjustment.

Guosheng strategy points out that institutional precipitation funds are becoming more and more market-oriented, and the comprehensive sports bull market will not repeat, and the era of institutional bull, structural bull and big differentiation will continue. Prior to the rapid rise in the market, once again many investors bull market illusion.. However, we have always stressed that a stable and upward A-share market led by an institution is far healthier than a round of concentrated admission of residents, which sets off a sharp rise and fall in the index. In recent years, supervision has always strictly controlled the concentration of residents funds, especially leverage and capital allocation, into the market. At the same time, through the reform of new regulations on asset management and financial management, banks are encouraged to set up fund companies and increase the proportion of institutional share allotment to continuously guide long-term funds into the A-share market, thus promoting the transformation of residents funds from direct shareholding to indirect shareholding. This trend and direction are difficult to change. On July 17, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) exceeded expectations to raise the upper limit of equity investment ratio of insurance assets by up to 15 percentage points, again releasing a clear signal. In the future, the voice and proportion of institutional funds will continue to increase. The era of institutional bull, structural bull and big differentiation will continue.

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China Merchants Fund believes that the sharp market adjustment on July 24 was related to the large-scale reduction of the scientific and technological innovation board and the overnight fall of US stocks, which led to the outflow of northward funds. On the one hand, the large-scale reduction of the Sci-tech Innovation Board has also exerted a certain drag on the science and technology sector. On the other hand, the number of new initial jobless benefits announced on July 23 rose for the first time since April, and the US stock market showed a significant adjustment. On July 24, the northward fund showed a large net outflow. The Investment Fund believes that the market has been rising too fast, and some parts of the board have bubble tendency. The fall is the re release of market adjustment pressure.

China Merchants Fund said that due to the epidemic situation and economic situation abroad, domestic and foreign liquidity is still not likely to be tightened in a trend. Meanwhile, the real economic data in the second quarter continued to improve, and the trend of broad credit is expected to continue in the third quarter. There is not much room for the index to decline significantly. At the current time point, we can still look for structural opportunities with a positive attitude. In the next stage, we should pay attention to the setting of the Political Bureau meeting China and the United States game progress and other events.

Stock or house? Li Xunlei said so

As for the sharp adjustment of a shares on Friday, Barron weekly interviewed Li Xunlei, chief economist of China Thailand securities. Li Xunlei believed that the recent escalation of Sino US tensions is only a trigger factor in the market, and more importantly, the normal adjustment brought about by changes in market supply and demand. Sino US relations are only short-term factors that disturb the market.

As for the overall rebound and continuous upward trend of a shares since the low point in March, Li Xunlei believes that the economic and enterprise profit fundamentals do not support the so-called comprehensive bull market. He pointed out that the rise of Chinas stock market index is due to the correction of the original valuation system, and the valuation of stocks with greater weight in the index is going up.

At the same time, with the structural transformation of Chinas economy, the stock market is timely reflecting the trend of consumption upgrading and the replacement of old and new industries. From 2017 until now, it has been a structural bull market. He told the Chinese edition of Barron weekly.

Excerpts from an interview with Li xunlei

Li Xunlei: the price of the house is getting higher and higher. As the denominator becomes larger, its return on investment is actually declining. For example, more than 10 years ago, when you bought a house at the price of 5000 yuan per square meter, it may now rise to 50000 yuan per square meter, ten times the rate of return on investment; but if you buy a house at 50000 yuan per square meter, it will be more difficult to achieve a double rate of return. Moreover, not every city has such growth potential. On the other hand, better investment vehicles than real estate are now richer.

Then there is the question: is the valuation of scarce assets too high? My suggestion is to find professionals and entrust the money to excellent fund managers. They can judge whether the current valuation of so-called good assets is expensive or cheap.

In terms of stock investment, buying stocks means buying the future. We judge whether the current stock price is expensive or cheap based on future expectations. If its profit can maintain 30% to 50% annual growth in the future, many of these stocks are very cheap now.

Chinese version of Barron weekly: from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which of the major types of assets do you prefer?

Li Xunlei: first, Im still optimistic about equity assets. Its mainly about the good companies and industries I mentioned earlier. This is easy to say. In practice, most investors may not have the ability to find good companies and good scarce assets. My advice is to buy funds managed by good fund managers, which is the most important experience in so many years.

Second, Im optimistic about gold. I think there is a risk that asset bubbles will burst in the future, and there may be risks of global economic downturns, financial turmoil and even wars. In addition, currency overrun is a common practice of monetary authorities in this epidemic. In fact, since 1929, US dollar notes have grown by 330 times, while the US economy has only grown by 16 times, and the stock of gold has only increased by 6.7 times. Since 1971, the US dollar paper money has increased by 21 times, the real growth of the US economy has been 2.7 times, and the gold stock has only increased by 1.1 times. From this perspective, gold is not only a hedging tool, but also an investment product.

For risk averse investors, we can pay attention to some low-risk fixed income products, such as interest rate bonds, some monetary products, breakeven financial products and so on.

As for real estate, I think it can still be held for those developed city with continuous net inflow of population, such as Tokyo, Japan, which will be high after the real estate bubble burst. From the perspective of real estate, I dont think its a good asset allocation tool.