According to the data of the central bank, as of the end of June, the scale of structural deposits of Chinese banks was 10.83 trillion yuan, down more than 1 trillion yuan from 11.84 trillion yuan at the end of May. Among them, the scale of structural deposits of small and medium-sized banks decreased by 774.05 billion yuan and that of large banks by 236.87 billion yuan.
Chen Jianheng, chief fixed income analyst of CICC, said that the decline in structural deposits of both enterprises and residents in June was more than seasonal in terms of investor types. Among them, the decline rate of structural deposits of enterprises is about 580 billion yuan higher than the average of the past four years, and the decline rate of personal structural deposits is about 330 billion yuan higher than the average of the past four years, and the total decline of both is more than 900 billion yuan.
At the same time, the yield also shows a downward trend. According to the monitoring of rong360 big data research institute, the average maturity of RMB structured deposits issued in June was 147 days, and the average expected maximum yield was 3.93%, with a month on month decrease of 61bp. The average expected maximum yield of state-owned banks was lower than that of joint-stock banks, and the yield to maturity of structural deposits showed a slight downward trend.
Since the beginning of this year, the scale of structural deposits of Chinese banks has exceeded 12 trillion yuan, and the arbitrage problem and business chaos behind it have attracted regulatory attention. Chi Guangsheng, an analyst at Anxin securities, said that since this year, some enterprises have obtained funds by issuing high-grade short-term credit bonds, discounting bills and applying for financial discount loans, and then purchased structural deposits to earn interest margins. In order to achieve the target of deposit and loan, some banks cooperate with and encourage enterprise arbitrage.
Many experts believe that under strong supervision, the scale of structural deposits will be further reduced, and there is room for downward return.
Recently, the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued the notice on risk warning of structural deposit business, requiring banks (within the jurisdiction) with too fast growth of structural deposit business in the year to take effective measures to reduce the scale of structural deposit of the bank month by month, and control the total amount within the scope of regulatory policies by the end of 2020.
Liu Yinping, an analyst at rong360, said that in the week from July 13 to 19, the average expected maximum yield of RMB structural deposits was 3.59%, and fell another 18bp month on month to the lowest level of this year. The structural deposit market is greatly affected by the policy, and the scale is expected to continue to drop in the second half of the year, and the yield may further decline.
Li Yamin, chief analyst of the securities and banking industry of BOC International, said that the stricter supervision of structural deposits aims to crack down on fund arbitrage. At the same time, the increase in the proportion of general deposits in the deposit structure will also help to reduce the cost of comprehensive liabilities of banks, ease the pressure of narrowing bank interest margins, and better support the development of the real economy.
Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of China Securities Journal_ NF4425