From the sales of major products in the machinery industry, it reflects the recovery of the whole economy, which is very good. Chen Xianfan, CO director of Soochow Securities Research Institute and chief researcher of machinery industry, said in an interview with first finance and economics that despite the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, excavator sales fell sharply in the first quarter, but the overall sales volume in the first half of the year still achieved a 24% growth, especially in June, which achieved a 75% year-on-year increase in domestic sales, far exceeding the industrys expectations. According to the survey, sales of other types of construction machinery, such as concrete machinery and tower crane, have achieved higher growth than excavators. Compared with the industrial robot industry with high economic sensitivity, the sales volume in June increased by 30% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 10% in the first half of the year. Chen Xianfan predicted that the boom of the machinery industry in the second half of the year will remain strong.
On the other hand, there are many bright spots in the communication industry where funds hold shares intensively.
The USs blockade and crackdown on Chinas science and technology industry has been increasing. For the communication industry, especially the construction of 5g network, with the continuous maturity of the domestic industrial chain, the overall construction progress has not been affected. Tang Haiqing, chief researcher of Tianfeng securities communication industry, said that looking forward to the whole year, the three operators and tower companies planned to invest a total of 1973 billion yuan in 5g field at the beginning of this year, and plan to build 500000 5g base stations by 2020. China Unicom has made it clear that it will strive to complete the construction target of 250000 5g base stations jointly built and shared with China Telecom in the third quarter of 2020, and the overall construction scale of 5g is expected to exceed the expectation in the whole year of 2020.
Turning point of performance of machinery sector has arrived
Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, put forward three basic judgments of economic recovery in the first half of the year. From the perspective of investment field, infrastructure investment growth is a very important force for economic recovery. From May to June this year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment was significantly higher than that before the epidemic, about 7 percentage points higher.
The machinery industry is closely related to the macro-economy as a whole, as well as the investment in real estate infrastructure and manufacturing. In the first half of the year, real estate investment achieved a year-on-year growth of 2%. In the second half of the year, we are more optimistic about the areas related to infrastructure and manufacturing investment. It is worth noting that the state has issued more policies, mainly from two aspects: on the one hand, in the first half of the year, the total amount of special bonds issued by local governments reached 2.4 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 53%. The main reason is that the newly added special bonds are used for railway, rail transit and other transportation infrastructure, farmland and water conservancy construction, as well as some major municipal infrastructure construction I think the second half of the year is expected to further boost the demand for construction machinery and rail transit equipment. Chen Xianfan said that the special debt has just been released, reflecting the downstream equipment demand procurement, it will still take some time, after which it will have a strong driving effect.
In addition, Chen Xianfan pointed out that social finance achieved a high growth of 43% in the first half of the year. Medium and long-term loans also increased by 6%, and corporate financing increased significantly. From the perspective of historical experience, medium and long-term loans are mostly used for capital expenditure of enterprises, especially for equipment procurement. From the current situation, manufacturing investment is expected to gradually pick up. He said.
Under the policy support of refinancing and IPO on the science and technology innovation board, SMIC and Ningde times have launched 10 billion level financing successively. Chen Xianfan analyzed that these enterprises will invest after obtaining funds, which will have a significant driving effect on high-end equipment of emerging industries. At the same time, the proportion of domestic equipment will be greatly increased.
In terms of individual stocks, Zoomlion released the interim report performance forecast. It is estimated that in the first half of 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.8-4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% - 63.03%, corresponding to Q2 performance of 2.774-3.174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 76.2% - 101.7%. Prior to this, Huichuan technology released the performance forecast of the interim report. It is estimated that in the first half of the year, the revenue will reach 4.350 billion yuan to 4.894 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80%; the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 677 million yuan to 797 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% to 100%.
In terms of valuation, the overall valuation of construction machinery is more than 10 times, which is still underestimated at present. Of course, there are also some companies with growth tendency whose valuation will be relatively higher. However, the investment trend they are facing is upward, the industry is also in the period of transformation, and the proportion of localization is constantly increasing, so the flexibility is greater, and the performance elasticity will be greater than that of traditional enterprises. Chen Xianfan predicted that the future machinery industry will appear Davis double-click opportunities.
5g construction in full swing
Under the background of the new epidemic situation and economic transformation and upgrading, 5g, as an important area of new infrastructure , has been vigorously promoted by national policies. With the intensive implementation of relevant supporting policies and the continuous increase of operators investment, the construction scale of 5g in the whole year is expected to exceed expectations. We believe that with the rapid increase of 5g related industrial chain shipment, the domestic related industrial chain from chip, process, device to terminal equipment will accelerate maturity, and the impact of Sino US friction on 5g construction will continue to weaken. As an important field of new infrastructure, 5g is expected to enter a period of accelerated development, bringing long-term development opportunities to the communication industry and even the whole science and technology industry. Tang Haiqing said.
According to the latest data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, in the first half of 2020, more than 400000 5g base stations have been opened in China, and in the near future, more than 15000 5g base stations have been opened every week. In terms of 5g terminals, 197 5g mobile phones have been granted network access permission, and the shipment volume of 5g mobile phones has reached 86.23 million. For 5g users, the number of terminals connected to 5g networks has reached 66 million in the first half of the year. Overall, in the first half of the year, domestic 5g large-scale construction continued to accelerate, 5g coverage and user upgrading were smoothly promoted, and the 5g industrial chain entered the accelerated development stage. From the perspective of the performance of Listed Companies in the communication industry, among the companies that have disclosed the performance forecast of the interim report, in the field of 5g related optical modules, Zhongji xuchuang, xinyisheng, Tianfu communication and Bochuang technology; Shennan circuit related to 5g upstream devices; Baoxin software and Nanxing Co., Ltd. in the field of data center; 263 and other major listed companies in the industry chain of 5g application, with an average of To achieve high-speed growth of year-on-year performance. Tang Haiqing predicted that with the acceleration of domestic 5g network construction and the gradual implementation of its application, all aspects of the communication industry chain will benefit comprehensively. Source: editor in charge of the first finance and Economics: Li Zhaoyuan_ B7890
From the perspective of the performance of Listed Companies in the communication industry, among the companies that have disclosed the performance forecast of the interim report, in the field of 5g related optical modules, Zhongji xuchuang, xinyisheng, Tianfu communication and Bochuang technology; Shennan circuit related to 5g upstream devices; Baoxin software and Nanxing Co., Ltd. in the field of data center; 263 and other major listed companies in the industry chain of 5g application, with an average of To achieve high-speed growth of year-on-year performance. Tang Haiqing predicted that with the acceleration of domestic 5g network construction and the gradual implementation of its application, all aspects of the communication industry chain will benefit comprehensively.