Securities companies: sudden impact is the time to enter, high look at 3600 points!

category:Finance
 Securities companies: sudden impact is the time to enter, high look at 3600 points!


In this regard, Mr. fund sorted out the latest news affecting the stock market over the weekend, as well as the latest research and judgment of the top ten securities teachers, hoping to help you in your investment.

Top 10 news affecting a shares over the weekend

1. Han Zheng presided over the Forum on real estate work: to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market

Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, presided over a forum on real estate work on the 24th to thoroughly implement the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, summarize the implementation of the pilot scheme of the long-term real estate mechanism, analyze the current situation of the real estate market, and deploy the key real estate work in the next stage.

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the US side violates international treaties by entering the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, and China will make a proper and necessary response

3. The first batch of 4 enterprises were registered! The growth enterprise market with a rise and fall rate of 20% is coming

4. Xiao Gang: Chinas financial market shows relatively stable situation and strong toughness

Xiao Gang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese peoples Political Consultative Conference and former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the 2020 International Monetary Forum on July 25 that since this year, Chinas financial market has shown a relatively stable situation and strong resilience compared with the international market. The number of IPOs in Shanghai and Shenzhen exceeded that of NASDAQ and NYSE. In terms of bond market, Chinas national debt market is developing rapidly, and corporate credit bond is also developing rapidly. At the same time, Chinas foreign exchange market supply and demand maintain a basic balance.

5. The meeting of the National Peoples Congress of the peoples Republic of China calls for speeding up the issuance and use of two new and one heavy bonds, which may be promoted in the investment in the second half of the year

As a result, the amount of special bonds increased from RMB 15.75 trillion in 2020 to RMB 3.75 trillion in the market. Market analysis, positive fiscal policy will boost the construction of new infrastructure. A few days ago, the executive meeting of the State Council called for making good use of the special bonds of local governments, strengthening the docking of funds and projects, and improving the efficiency of the use of funds.

6. Ministry of industry and information technology: support the development of new energy vehicles to the countryside, increase the promotion efforts, and optimize the policy environment

7. Prior to the market opening of the selected layer, there is a significant positive news that the restrictions on the proportion of public funds investing in the new third board will be lifted

8. CSRC issues IPO approval documents of 3 Enterprises

Recently, we have approved the initial applications of the following enterprises according to the legal procedures: Zhongwang Fabric Co., Ltd., Hubei Junyao health drink Co., Ltd., and Ningbo Changhong Polymer Technology Co., Ltd. The above-mentioned enterprises and their Underwriters will negotiate with the exchange to determine the issuance schedule and publish the offering documents in succession.

Next week (from July 27 to July 31), 113 companies will be lifted from the ban, with a total of 5.238 billion shares. According to the closing price on July 24, the market value of the lifted shares is 125.156 billion yuan, which is 42.2% lower than that of 216.530 billion yuan this week. From the perspective of the market value of the lifting of the ban, July 31 was the peak period of the lifting of the ban. The market value of the six companies was 45.359 billion yuan, accounting for 36.24% of the scale of the ban lifting next week.

The latest research and judgment of top ten securities companies

1. CITIC Securities: any sudden shock is the time to enter the market, which can be arranged in advance for the next round of rise

According to the latest research report of CITIC Securities, the market has returned to equilibrium since the end of July, and any sudden impact will bring new admission opportunities. Although the market is faced with multiple external risk factors, there is upward disturbance, but there is also support downward in terms of domestic policy fundamentals and liquidity: it is expected that the policy will still maintain a loose tone and will not be rashly tightened, and the fundamentals will continue to recover Quarterly; the short-term liquidity is expected to be in a tight balance, but the medium and long-term potential market entry funds are still abundant.

Therefore, from the late July, the A-share market is in a balanced state, any sudden impact is a new entry time, investors can make advance layout for the next round of rise. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to focus on the necessary consumption, medicine leading enterprises and optional consumption sectors with continuous improvement of prosperity, which enjoy high certainty premium in the middle reporting season, including automobiles, household appliances and social services.

Haitong strategy that the bull market 3 waves rise in the medium term trend unchanged. The short-term adjustment is due to the interference of event factors, and the reference history is limited. Referring to history, hot spots spread and opportunities increased during the three waves of bull market because of more money, good fundamentals and rising sentiment.

Since July, the hot spots in the market have spread. After short-term adjustment, the future market will be more exciting. The main line of technology + securities companies will continue, with early cycle and undervalued products rising.

4. CSCI: the market will return to a volatile pattern, and the undervalued industry is relatively dominant

According to the research report released by the strategy team of CSCI, the view held since June remains unchanged: the stock market will again present a volatile pattern, and undervalued financial, real estate and cyclical industries will be relatively dominant. From the point of view of the current time point, because the external environment is facing greater uncertainty, economic internal circulation is the stable dependence of Chinas economic recovery. The overseas exposure of finance, real estate and cycle is relatively small, which belongs to the internal circulation type. At the same time, the undervalued value has the characteristics of both attack and defense. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to it.

5. Tianfeng Securities: follow up whether there are enough incremental funds to keep up.

Tianfeng Securities believes that for the judgment of the overall pattern of the A-share market, the current crux lies in whether there are enough incremental funds to keep up with.

Recently, the market is worried about the marginal contraction of monetary policy, but in fact, the central bank has contracted the currency since May (dr007 has continued to rebound since May). Looking forward, the possibility of further sharp contraction of the central bank in the next six months is very small. At present, dr007 has no longer moved up the center, which means that it is basically at the level of the central banks decision-making.

However, in the process of the central banks monetary contraction, the main incremental funds in the stock market did not come from the interbank market in 14-15 years (at that time, there were a large number of funds with priority grading and leverage among banks). Therefore, although bonds fell sharply, stocks fluctuated upward.

In addition to the foreign capital and public raised funds, which are not affected by the domestic central banks monetary contraction, the credit expansion in March June promoted the spillover of some credit funds from the entity to the stock market, which is an important incremental fund in this round, and accelerates the rise of the market. One evidence is that since July, when the market volume has risen rapidly, the CBRC and the CSRC have repeatedly expressed their views on cracking down on and strictly controlling the illegal entry of credit funds into the market.

Overall market pattern: it is expected that the credit cycle will be flat in the second half of the year, and after the mood ups and downs, it will still be a bull market for a few companies.

6. Guoxins strategy: external disturbance rises again

Referring to the historical experience of market performance since the Sino US trade war, generally speaking, the market is insensitive to external events. Therefore, in the future, the domestic liquidity environment is still the most important variable to determine the subsequent market conditions. If the conflict of external events escalates, it means that 1) the probability of domestic liquidity environment tightening significantly decreases; 2) the main logic of the early market (independent technology, stable growth of domestic demand and consumption) should be strengthened. To sum up, in the short term, the market absorbs the impact of external events to digest and adjust the early rise and valuation. In the medium term, under the background of the domestic big cycle, the logic of consumer perpetual motion machine and technological independence is still the strongest.

7. CICC: short term sharp decline will be a low suction opportunity

Recent market volatility has increased, sentiment has cooled, local valuation is not low, profit taking and other factors in the second half of last week amplified the pressure of external interference. Looking forward, we believe that the markets short-term sentiment may continue to cool down, and it still needs some time to build up its momentum. However, it is expected that there is not much room for correction, so we should not be overly pessimistic about the markets medium-term prospects.

In the medium term, we will continue to focus on low-end trends in the fields of home appliances and home appliances, such as low-end consumption and short-term consumption of home appliances. In the second half of the year, the new economy will continue to be the main line, but the allocation of new and old plates will be more balanced, and the old economy will absorb less securities companies in consolidation.

8. Guosheng strategy: cherish the adjustment and continue to be optimistic about institutional bull and structural bull

Recent multiple factors lead to market adjustment. But the impact is short-term, and there is no systemic risk in the market. First of all, friction escalated again, which impacted the market risk preference. Recently, the NASDAQ has also adjusted continuously, and foreign capital has also been flowing out. But we have repeatedly stressed that external factors are not the main contradiction in the market. As the bullets gradually run out, and the domestic market has prepared for the worst, the impact of friction has continued to blunt.

The core reason is: the stock market liquidity is abundant this year, and the incremental capital has entered the market by a large margin. In the second half of the year, including funds, insurance and foreign investment, it is still expected to bring trillions of funds to the market, which has become an important cornerstone of the market and the most important reason for us to remain optimistic. Therefore, even if the index fluctuates in the short term, the opportunities far outweigh the risks under the certainty of large inflow of incremental funds.

9. Shen wanhongyuan: the five factors that support A-share upward remain unchanged, so we should maintain a positive attitude

Shen wanhongyuan believes that this Fridays sharp fall was triggered by two events: (1) the pressure of the first round of reduction of the scientific and technological innovation board was released. At present, nine companies disclosed their plans to reduce their holdings by about 9.3 billion yuan, which caused the market to worry about the selling pressure of chips; (2) the continuous fermentation of Sino US friction triggered a large outflow of the mainland stock exchange, which reflected that the uncertainty of Sino US friction did have an impact on market sentiment.

For the future market, Shen wanhongyuan believes that there is no basis for a sharp decline in the market. Under the background that the domestic macro-economy continues to improve and the profit growth of listed companies continues to pick up, the bull market in the medium and long term can still be expected, and the range of short-term correction can be controlled.

However, the impact of short-term market sentiment is not sustainable, because the five optimistic factors supporting the upward trend of A-shares have not changed qualitatively: (1) the pattern of changes in the strength of China and the United States has not changed; (2) the pattern of accelerating domestic reform in the second half of the year has not changed; (3) the trend of increasing the number of a shares by residents funds through public funds; (4) the pattern of long-term dominance of technology and consumption leaders has not changed; (5) The overall direction of stable growth policy remains unchanged.

Shen wanhongyuan said that in terms of structure, the improvement of industry concentration and the inflow of residents funds into a shares through the leading public offering are still the trend. For those stocks with better second quarter performance, consumption and technology leaders may still be the main line of the current round of market.

10. Pacific Securities: a structural bull market driven by consumption and technology in the market, with a high of 3600 points

The market switching continued year after quarter. After the policy was tightened marginally in April, the Sino US dispute arose again in May, and the early liquidity easing failed to quickly boost the economy. At the same time, the early tightening led to the reappearance of global growth pressure. The global central banks represented by the Federal Reserve returned to the interest rate reduction cycle one after another. After the easing effect appeared, it was impacted by the new crown epidemic. During this period, the valuation improvement brought by liquidity easing and the performance bottom seeking brought by the economic downturn were constrained by each other, resulting in the twists and turns of the switching process;

During the market switching period, Wande quana rose 4.45%, and its valuation increased from 18.66 times to 19.84 times, with an increase rate of 6.90%. At the same time of the rotation of consumption and technology, the financial real estate and cycle sectors which benefited from the economic recovery made up for the rise in early July.

In the first half of 2020, the inflation pressure will be released, and the space for subsequent interest rate reduction and other monetary easing will be opened, which will be good for the valuation repair of index weight plates such as banks and real estate. Assuming that the respective valuation of banks and real estate will be restored to the historical center in 2020, combined with profits, it is expected to drive the industry up by 30%, which will drive the Shanghai index to 3200 points; the industrial chain of growth fields (5g, semiconductor, Cloud Computing) will be superimposed uff09In 2020, it will enter the period of performance acceleration, and Davis double-click will be formed to further open the index space.

Overall, the index range of the Shanghai composite index is expected to reach 3200-3600 points and 3300 points in the neutral scenario.