Securities companies: sudden impact is the time to enter, high look at 3600 points!

category:Finance
 Securities companies: sudden impact is the time to enter, high look at 3600 points!


Top 10 news affecting a shares over the weekend

Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, presided over a forum on real estate work on the 24th to thoroughly implement the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, summarize the implementation of the pilot scheme of the long-term real estate mechanism, analyze the current situation of the real estate market, and deploy the key real estate work in the next stage.

2. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the US side violates international treaties by entering the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, and China will make a proper and necessary response

In response to a reporters question about the US sides entry into the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the Chinese Consulate Generals premises in Houston are diplomatic consulates and Chinas national property. According to the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and the Sino US Consular treaty, the US side shall not infringe upon the premises of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston in any way. As for the US sides forcible entry into the premises of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, China expresses strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition, and has made solemn representations. China will make a proper and necessary response to this.

3. The first batch of 4 enterprises were registered! The growth enterprise market with a rise and fall rate of 20% is coming

On July 24, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that Fengshang culture, Kangtai medicine, Meichang new materials and Blue Shield optoelectronics were approved to register on the gem. Wang Jiyue, a senior investment banker, said that after the CSRC completes the registration procedures, the IPO companies can complete the process from starting to completing the listing in three weeks. That is to say, it can be listed as soon as mid and late August.

4. Xiao Gang: Chinas financial market shows relatively stable situation and strong toughness

5. The meeting of the National Peoples Congress of the peoples Republic of China calls for speeding up the issuance and use of two new and one heavy bonds, which may be promoted in the investment in the second half of the year

In 2020, the amount of new special bonds increased from 2.15 trillion yuan in 2019 to 3.75 trillion yuan, the largest increase in the past years. Therefore, the trend of special bonds has attracted the attention of the market. Market analysis, positive fiscal policy will boost the construction of new infrastructure. A few days ago, the executive meeting of the State Council called for making good use of the special bonds of local governments, strengthening the docking of funds and projects, and improving the efficiency of the use of funds.

6. Ministry of industry and information technology: support the development of new energy vehicles to the countryside, increase the promotion efforts, and optimize the policy environment

Xin Guobin of the Ministry of industry and information technology stressed that the Ministry of industry and information technology will work with relevant departments and local governments to support the launching of new energy vehicles to the countryside. At the same time, focusing on the problems of weak innovation ability, high vehicle cost and lagging infrastructure construction, we should strengthen top-level design, increase promotion efforts, optimize the policy environment, accelerate the construction of charging and swapping infrastructure, strengthen the research and development of key generic technologies and platform integration technologies, so as to promote the development of new energy vehicle industry to a new level with greater determination and strength.

7. Prior to the market opening of the selected layer, there is a significant positive news that the restrictions on the proportion of public funds investing in the new third board will be lifted

Before the official opening of the market, good news came from the market. According to media reports, the restrictions on the investment proportion of public funds on the new third board will be lifted, and the industry calls this a super major positive. It is pointed out that at present, more than 20 public fund companies have designed products, and there will be more in the future.

8. CSRC issues IPO approval documents of 3 Enterprises

9. Next week, 125.2 billion restricted shares will be lifted, down 42.18% month on month

Next week (from July 27 to July 31), 113 companies will be lifted from the ban, with a total of 5.238 billion shares. According to the closing price on July 24, the market value of the lifted shares is 125.156 billion yuan, which is 42.2% lower than that of 216.530 billion yuan this week. From the perspective of the market value of the lifting of the ban, July 31 was the peak period of the lifting of the ban. The market value of the six companies was 45.359 billion yuan, accounting for 36.24% of the scale of the ban lifting next week.

10. Fearless to adjust the subscription scale of the first batch of science and technology innovation board fund exceeding 15 billion

The latest research and judgment of top ten securities companies

According to the latest research report of CITIC Securities, the market has returned to equilibrium since the end of July, and any sudden impact will bring new admission opportunities. Although the market is faced with multiple external risk factors, there is upward disturbance, but there is also support downward in terms of domestic policy fundamentals and liquidity: it is expected that the policy will still maintain a loose tone and will not be rashly tightened, and the fundamentals will continue to recover Quarterly; the short-term liquidity is expected to be in a tight balance, but the medium and long-term potential market entry funds are still abundant.

Therefore, from the late July, the A-share market is in a balanced state, any sudden impact is a new entry time, investors can make advance layout for the next round of rise. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to focus on the necessary consumption, medicine leading enterprises and optional consumption sectors with continuous improvement of prosperity, which enjoy high certainty premium in the middle reporting season, including automobiles, household appliances and social services.

Haitong strategy that the bull market 3 waves rise in the medium term trend unchanged. The short-term adjustment is due to the interference of event factors, and the reference history is limited. Referring to history, hot spots spread and opportunities increased during the three waves of bull market because of more money, good fundamentals and rising sentiment.

Since July, the hot spots in the market have spread. After short-term adjustment, the future market will be more exciting. The main line of technology + securities companies will continue, with early cycle and undervalued products rising.

3. Guotai Junan strategy: in the future, the Shanghai Composite Index will fluctuate at 3200-3400 points

Guotai Junan strategy team believes that in the future, the general trend will be mainly concussion, and the Shanghai composite index range will be 3200-3400 points. From the perspective of DDM model, the market driving force will shift from risk-free interest rate downward to fundamentals, and the style will return to consumption, medicine and technology. At present, the profit expectation of consumption and medicine valuation is not too high. The rising valuation level of the consumer sector in recent years has a fundamental basis: the improvement of competitive advantage and profitability of leading enterprises. From the perspective of market environment, the current market liquidity environment is loose and the trading volume is at a historical high level, which can form a certain buffer for the lifting of the ban.

4. CSCI: the market will return to a volatile pattern, and the undervalued industry is relatively dominant

According to the research report released by the strategy team of CSCI, the view held since June remains unchanged: the stock market will again present a volatile pattern, and undervalued financial, real estate and cyclical industries will be relatively dominant. From the point of view of the current time point, because the external environment is facing greater uncertainty, economic internal circulation is the stable dependence of Chinas economic recovery. The overseas exposure of finance, real estate and cycle is relatively small, which belongs to the internal circulation type. At the same time, the undervalued value has the characteristics of both attack and defense. It is suggested that investors should pay attention to it.

Tianfeng Securities believes that for the judgment of the overall pattern of the A-share market, the current crux lies in whether there are enough incremental funds to keep up with.

Recently, the market is worried about the marginal contraction of monetary policy, but in fact, the central bank has contracted the currency since May (dr007 has continued to rebound since May). Looking forward, the possibility of further sharp contraction of the central bank in the next six months is very small. At present, dr007 has no longer moved up the center, which means that it is basically at the level of the central banks decision-making.

Therefore, for the incremental funds in the follow-up market, the most important thing is not the monetary policy (its approximate rate will not further shrink), but the inspection strength and the direction of credit cycle of credit funds entering the market illegally. If credit continues to expand (similar to the past few months), earnings expectations will continue to improve and credit entity spillovers will bring more incremental funds, resulting in Davis double click. On the contrary, if the credit starts to shrink, the profit expectation cant continue to increase, and the credit spillover fund will decrease, thus forming Davis double kill.

Overall market pattern: it is expected that the credit cycle will be flat in the second half of the year, and after the mood ups and downs, it will still be a bull market for a few companies.

6. Guoxins strategy: external disturbance rises again

This week, the market ushered in a correction, especially the gem fell 6.1% on Friday, the biggest one-day decline since the second trading day after the Spring Festival. The direct event impact of the crash is the external disturbance factor caused by the Sino US friction. However, the deeper reason behind it should be that some stocks have a large rise in the early stage, and their valuations are relatively high. There is a need for adjustment, and external events have become an export. According to our statistics, the median PE quantile and Pb quantile of 2020q2 active management public offering funds are 88% and 93% respectively. The valuations of the top 10 stocks are basically at the highest level in history.

Referring to the historical experience of market performance since the Sino US trade war, generally speaking, the market is insensitive to external events. Therefore, in the future, the domestic liquidity environment is still the most important variable to determine the subsequent market conditions. If the conflict of external events escalates, it means that 1) the probability of domestic liquidity environment tightening significantly decreases; 2) the main logic of the early market (independent technology, stable growth of domestic demand and consumption) should be strengthened. To sum up, in the short term, the market absorbs the impact of external events to digest and adjust the early rise and valuation. In the medium term, under the background of the domestic big cycle, the logic of consumer perpetual motion machine and technological independence is still the strongest.

Recent market volatility has increased, sentiment has cooled, local valuation is not low, profit taking and other factors in the second half of last week amplified the pressure of external interference. Looking forward, we believe that the markets short-term sentiment may continue to cool down, and it still needs some time to build up its momentum. However, it is expected that there is not much room for correction, so we should not be overly pessimistic about the markets medium-term prospects.

In the medium term, we will continue to focus on low-end trends in the fields of home appliances and home appliances, such as low-end consumption and short-term consumption of home appliances. In the second half of the year, the new economy will continue to be the main line, but the allocation of new and old plates will be more balanced, and the old economy will absorb less securities companies in consolidation.

8. Guosheng strategy: cherish the adjustment and continue to be optimistic about institutional bull and structural bull

Recent multiple factors lead to market adjustment. But the impact is short-term, and there is no systemic risk in the market. First of all, friction escalated again, which impacted the market risk preference. Recently, the NASDAQ has also adjusted continuously, and foreign capital has also been flowing out. But we have repeatedly stressed that external factors are not the main contradiction in the market. As the bullets gradually run out, and the domestic market has prepared for the worst, the impact of friction has continued to blunt.

As for the outflow of foreign capital, it is mainly short-term trading speculative funds, while the trend of medium and long-term overseas allocation capital inflow remains unchanged. Second, the market is generally worried that the economy will lead to liquidity tightening. However, although the period of the greatest impact of the current epidemic situation on the economy has passed, the downward pressure on the economy is still great, and the liquidity remains loose and the trend of sinking towards broad credit remains unchanged.

Cherish the opportunity for adjustment. With abundant liquidity in the stock market and the deterministic inflow of incremental funds from institutions, we continue to be optimistic about the profit-making effect of the market. Looking back on the performance of a shares this year, we can find that there are few big adjustments. Only when the domestic epidemic hit in February and the overseas financial crisis hit in March, the market made a significant adjustment. It turns out that every extreme fluctuation is an opportunity to increase positions. Since then, whenever the market starts to be cautious, such as the bond market slump at the end of April, the trade friction and the upgrading of science and technology war in May, the performance of a shares is very resilient.

Shen wanhongyuan believes that this Fridays sharp fall was triggered by two events: (1) the pressure of the first round of reduction of the scientific and technological innovation board was released. At present, nine companies disclosed their plans to reduce their holdings by about 9.3 billion yuan, which caused the market to worry about the selling pressure of chips; (2) the continuous fermentation of Sino US friction triggered a large outflow of the mainland stock exchange, which reflected that the uncertainty of Sino US friction did have an impact on market sentiment.

For the future market, Shen wanhongyuan believes that there is no basis for a sharp decline in the market. Under the background that the domestic macro-economy continues to improve and the profit growth of listed companies continues to pick up, the bull market in the medium and long term can still be expected, and the range of short-term correction can be controlled.

However, the impact of short-term market sentiment is not sustainable, because the five optimistic factors supporting the upward trend of A-shares have not changed qualitatively: (1) the pattern of changes in the strength of China and the United States has not changed; (2) the pattern of accelerating domestic reform in the second half of the year has not changed; (3) the trend of increasing the number of a shares by residents funds through public funds; (4) the pattern of long-term dominance of technology and consumption leaders has not changed; (5) The overall direction of stable growth policy remains unchanged.

Shen wanhongyuan said that in terms of structure, the improvement of industry concentration and the inflow of residents funds into a shares through the leading public offering are still the trend. For those stocks with better second quarter performance, consumption and technology leaders may still be the main line of the current round of market.

10. Pacific Securities: a structural bull market driven by consumption and technology in the market, with a high of 3600 points

During the market switching period, Wande quana rose 4.45%, and its valuation increased from 18.66 times to 19.84 times, with an increase rate of 6.90%. At the same time of the rotation of consumption and technology, the financial real estate and cycle sectors which benefited from the economic recovery made up for the rise in early July.

Overall, the index range of the Shanghai composite index is expected to reach 3200-3600 points and 3300 points in the neutral scenario.