Bull market press pause button? What is the key point of the future trend of a shares?

category:Finance
 Bull market press pause button? What is the key point of the future trend of a shares?


In this regard, CITIC Securities believes that the current Sino US diplomatic disputes only stay at the emotional level, and it is expected that the United States will not take substantive countermeasures against China before the general election. The Sino US disputes will still maintain the characteristics of high frequency and low impact. Separate geopolitical / diplomatic events only affect the short-term sentiment, and can not have a substantial impact on the domestic economy and financial market.

However, CITIC Securities believes that the US stock market is expected to face the risk of secondary decline induced by multiple factors, which will affect the global financial market; in addition, the volatility of the recent epidemic situation in Hong Kong may affect the short-term performance of Hong Kong stocks and have a certain emotional impact on a shares.

However, apart from this emergency factor, some institutions believe that another major factor that worries the market is the marginal contraction of monetary policy.

In fact, this voice has been raised by institutions before, but it has not attracted attention in the previous market boom.

Xu Biao, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, believes that in fact, the central bank has contracted the currency since May (dr007 has been rebounding since May). In the next six months, the possibility of further sharp contraction of the central bank is very small. At present, dr007 has no longer moved up the center, which means that it is basically at the level of the central banks decision-making.

CITIC Securities also believes that at present, the industry and investment fields are the first to repair, but the recovery of life services related to employment and the export of small and medium-sized enterprises is still slow, which still needs loose policy support. Macro policy will not adjust the tone because of the short-term overheated financial market or the better short-term economic data.

Tianfeng securities proposed that for the incremental funds in the follow-up market, the most important thing is not the monetary policy (its approximate rate will not further shrink), but the checking strength of illegal entry of credit funds and the direction of credit cycle. If credit continues to expand (similar to the past few months), earnings expectations will continue to improve and credit entity spillovers will bring more incremental funds, resulting in Davis double click. On the contrary, if the credit starts to shrink, the profit expectation cant continue to increase, and the credit spillover fund will decrease, thus forming Davis double kill.

In fact, from the important source of incremental funds - Fund issuance, there has not been a significant cooling down.

On July 24, the A-share market had a sharp correction on that day, but a number of science and technology innovation board funds were still sold out in one day, with the amount raised exceeding 15 billion.

From mid to late July, the A-share market is in a state of equilibrium. Any sudden impact is a new entry time. Investors can make advance layout for the next round of rise. CITIC Securities said.

A private investor in Guangzhou was in low position last week with a lot of cash in hand. But even when it fell sharply on Friday, it did not.

A lot of the target valuations are too expensive. After this shock, the inflow of incremental funds will certainly not be so enthusiastic in the short term. After removing the liquidity premium, some stock valuations can not be started at present, and the decline is better. I expect the shock to last until at least mid August.

Another signal that the market pays attention to is that when a large number of hot money funds appear, Ruiyuan Fund announced on the 24th that Ruiyuan growth value hybrid fund has suspended its subscription and fixed investment business, and has begun to close its doors.

It is reported that this is Ruiyuans initiative to limit the scale, mainly due to the recent Ruiyuan growth value hybrid fund has obtained a large number of fund applications. In order to safeguard the interests of the existing fund share holders and maintain the smooth operation of the fund, it has taken the measure of suspending the purchase.

However, some private investors believe that Ruiyuan adheres to value investment, which may also be because the current market target valuation is too expensive, which is not a good time to build a position, so it is closed to customers.

Extended reading 3200 points to buy funds, the fixed investment, or one-time investment? Securities companies: sudden impact is the time to enter, high look at 3600 points! Is it still the golden time to invest at the top of the mountain in 2013? Source: Li Zhaoyuan, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ B7890