The bottom of the world economy is far away from recovery
Because of the impact of the epidemic, the economy fell sharply in the first quarter of this year. However, since February, Chinas anti epidemic measures have been effective, the epidemic situation has been rapidly controlled, and the overall economy has been in the stage of bottoming up and recovery. This situation is significantly better than that of other major countries in the world. In particular, some countries, such as the United States, have made serious policy responses and the epidemic situation has been out of control. In view of this, the world economy is still far from reaching a bottom, and it is expected that it will continue to suffer a serious recession in the whole year.
But recently, some comprehensive statistical data are worth discussing. For example, looking at the original data of the first quarter, indicators such as retail sales of consumer goods, investment in fixed assets, and operating income of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size have all decreased by nearly 20%, while the published GDP has only decreased by 6.8%. At present, the industrial growth has turned from negative to positive. However, due to the great decline in the first quarter, the cumulative growth of the operating income of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size from January to may based on the original data is still - 11.4%. In the first half of the year, the service industry production index decreased by 6.1%, retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 11.4%, and investment in fixed assets decreased by 3.1% (of which private investment decreased by 7.3%). However, GDP growth in the first half of the year was only 1.6%, which is significantly different from the original statistics. Telling the truth is the most persuasive. Only by seeking truth from facts and being objective and true can statistics obtain trust and build consensus. If there is moisture in the data, it may not only mislead research and decision-making, but also damage its credibility.
In fact, Chinas economy has been ahead of other countries in the world and is on the way to recovery. It is estimated that Chinas economy will maintain positive growth in the second half of the year. Even if the GDP in the first half of the year decreased by 6% to 7%, and the second half was positive growth, and the annual cumulative decline was 2%, it was still the best performing country in the global economy. In the whole year, the economy of the United States and Europe may decline by 8% to 10%, and it is also very likely that the actual decline will exceed 10%.
China has not set a target for economic growth this year. The government work report proposes to give priority to stable employment and peoples livelihood, which is an objective and rational choice. In this years urban survey, the unemployment rate will be controlled at about 6%, and the growth of residents income will basically keep pace with the economic growth. Judging from the current trend, I think these targets can be achieved in the whole year.
At present, the reasonable choice to stabilize employment and protect peoples livelihood is to reduce the failure of small and medium-sized enterprises due to the rupture of capital chain and make ends meet by relaxing short-term financing and other policy means, and to help them tide over the difficulties; and to protect peoples livelihood by improving unemployment insurance and difficulty relief measures to prevent excessive decline in public consumption. When consumption rebounds, the normal operation and employment of enterprises are maintained, and the recovery of economy has a basic guarantee.
At present, an important problem to be solved is that unemployment insurance does not give full play to the role of protecting peoples livelihood. Last year, according to the survey of unemployment rate, 22.58 million urban people were unemployed, but only 4.61 million people received unemployment insurance benefits, accounting for only 1 / 5.
Whats the problem? One is that most of the new urban residents known as migrant workers are not covered by unemployment insurance. According to the survey of the Bureau of statistics, only 9.8% of migrant workers participated in unemployment insurance in 2014. No new survey data have been released since then, but the situation that most migrant workers do not participate in urban social security has obviously not changed. Last year, 434 million people were employed in urban areas, while only 205 million people participated in urban unemployment insurance, covering less than half of the total.
Second, more than half of the unemployed who have participated in the insurance can not get unemployment insurance because they can not meet the requirements of various procedures. These procedures are particularly detrimental to the insured migrant workers. At the end of May this year, the Ministry of human resources and social security and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on expanding the coverage of unemployment insurance, which is an important improvement. But it remains to be seen to what extent the problem can be solved.
In addition, the current urban survey of unemployment rate reflects the situation is not comprehensive. The number of unemployed people has increased significantly this year, but the urban unemployment rate in June was 5.7%, only 0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year. The reason is that many new urban residents, known as migrant workers, have to return to the countryside after unemployment and become farmers, so they are not included in the investigation of urban unemployment. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the number of migrant workers who went out of work did not increase, but decreased by about 5 million. The difference between the increase and decrease was actually in the state of unemployment, but most of them were not reflected in the unemployment statistics. Their living difficulties should arouse the attention of the society.
Therefore, it is urgent to solve the problem of unemployment security. I think that at present, we should provide temporary assistance to the unemployed who are not included in the insurance as soon as possible as the governments key expenditure direction. This is much more reasonable and effective than that of the United States and the United States. For the unemployed who have been included in the unemployment insurance, the procedures should be simplified and the measures should be improved so as to ensure the full coverage. The identification of the unemployed should also innovate methods, which can mainly rely on big data analysis. In the case that everyone has a real name mobile phone and bank account, it is not difficult to understand everyones work, residence, travel and even basic income and expenditure information.
The further goal is to expand the coverage of unemployment insurance and other insurance, to include the new urban population who have been working and living in cities and towns for a long time into social security, and to promote their naturalization and settlement in cities and towns. In order to reduce the burden of enterprises, we can consider that the government should bear a certain proportion of social security payment, and form a pattern that enterprises, governments and individuals share. But the part of government burden can not be raised by increasing tax burden, but by reducing unnecessary government investment and excessive administrative expenses. This is also the reform measures to be taken for the transformation of government functions and the rationalization of government expenditure structure.
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