Gold approaches record high analyst: silver has more investment value

 Gold approaches record high analyst: silver has more investment value

COMEX gold futures

COMEX silver futures

According to the most active contracts, the previous highest closing price of gold futures was 1891.90 US dollars / ounce on August 22, 2011, and the highest intraday record was 1923.70 dollars / ounce on September 6, 2011.

In terms of silver, the highest spot silver price in London on July 23 was $23.25/oz, up 100% from the lowest of $11.61/oz on March 18.

Qiu Peiyu of Southwest Securities commented that silver has both financial and industrial attributes. With the marginal recovery of industrial demand and the continuous increase of gold silver ratio brought by the rising gold price after the epidemic situation stabilized, the gold silver ratio is expected to be restored and return to the average value.

As for the gold price, Qiu Peiyu believes that it is expected to continue to go bullish. The logic mainly includes the following three points:

1. Central banks expectations of easing are high: the new epidemic has hit the real economy, the loose monetary policies and active fiscal policies of governments have been increasing, the EUs latest 750 billion euro recovery fund and the new round of US economic rescue plan have reached about US $1 trillion.

2. Oil price stabilizes and inflation expectations rise: after the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, crude oil production has declined significantly. With the continuous production reduction, oil price is expected to stabilize above $40 / barrel. As the king of commodities, crude oil is expected to boost inflation expectations.

3. The long-term weakening trend of the US dollar: the continuous expansion of the US government debt scale and the reduction of the relative yield of US dollar assets under the zero interest rate environment will gradually make us dollar assets lose their attractiveness and return to the downward cycle in the long run, and the opportunity cost of holding gold assets will be greatly reduced.

On the A-share market, the two cities fell in volume on Friday, with all major industry sectors all ink, while precious metal plate was relatively resistant to decline. Including Yuancheng gold, western gold, Hunan gold, Chifeng gold and other gold, the increase was more than 1%. While silver concept stocks Shengda resources rose more than 33% weekly, with a continuous trading limit from Monday to Wednesday.

Gold silver ratio

A-share related listed companies

Shengda resources (000603): it has 8948 tons of silver reserves and 215 tons of mineral silver production in 2019;

Xingye mining (000426): it has 10683 tons of silver reserves and 437 tons of silver production in 2018;

Yintai gold (000975): it has 7762 tons of silver resources and 191 tons of mineral silver production in 2018;

Guocheng mining (000688): the reserve of silver resources owned by Yubang mining is 18239 tons, which is expected to achieve 250 tons of silver metal production in 2021, and the silver production is expected to further expand to 1000 tons in the next three years.

Source of this article: Yang Qian, editor in charge of CFA_ NF4425