Will a new round of intensive regulation and control come to hot spots? Will the property market cool down?

category:Finance
 Will a new round of intensive regulation and control come to hot spots? Will the property market cool down?


Since July, several hot cities, including Shenzhen, Dongguan, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Nanjing, have successively upgraded their policies on property market increase or patch. Just two days before Dongguans second overweight policy, relevant departments in Nanjing patched up late at night, requiring couples to divorce for two years before they could buy houses according to their current marital status, thus blocking the loophole of purchasing houses through false divorce.

In addition, in Hangzhous regulation and control, it is required that the new commercial housing should not be less than 50% of the housing security for the household registration non housing families. Subsequently, Ningbo, Nanjing and other cities regulatory policies also incline to the houseless families with household registration, while Ningbos purchase and sales restriction policies are further extended to six districts.

On July 24, Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, presided over a forum on real estate work, emphasizing once again the positioning of housing without speculation and adhering to the principle of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations. Also attending the forum were government, housing, banking and other relevant departments in 10 key cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo and Changsha.

The upgrading of regulation and control in various regions has just begun, and there are still a number of cities on the way to increase regulation and control. An industry person told interface news. In the first half of this year, the price of new houses rose by more than 10%, and the phenomenon of lottery for ten thousand people has recently occurred in Chengdu property market, which is considered to be very likely to increase the regulation policy.

Cooling hot spots

From the perspective of the cities that have upgraded their regulation, none of them is a hot spot in the first half of the year.

Shenzhen is the biggest city in this round of regulation and control, and its market performance in the first half of the year is also the hottest. According to leyoujia data, in the first half of the year, the second-hand houses in Shenzhen were transferred to 44000 units, up 41% year-on-year, the average price rose by 5% month on month and 8% year-on-year. Among them, the turnover of second-hand houses in June alone exceeded 10000 units, up 23.9% month on month, which is the first month with more than 10000 transactions in four years. At the same time, the average price increase of second-hand houses is the highest among the four first tier cities.

Although the turnover of Shenzhen new housing market in the first half of the year was only 16700 units, down 17% month on month and 5% year on year, market participants believe that the decline in volume is mainly due to the shortage of new housing supply. The report also points out that Shenzhens primary housing zoning cycle has been maintained at the level of 7-8 months, and the market has been in short supply for a long time.

This has led to some hot real estate projects in Shenzhen, where tens of thousands of people are drawing lots, and the winning rate is even lower than 1%, which has aroused strong concern in the market.

In the same way, Hangzhou, which took the lead in increasing the size of regulation at the beginning of July, also witnessed a rush to rob houses in the first half of the year. In mid June, the scale of 60000 people in Yuanyang Xixi mansion broke the national record. In the first half of the year, the turnover of new houses in the urban area exceeded 68000 units, and in June the turnover of new houses exceeded 19000 units, the highest since June 2017.

In the first half of the year, Hangzhou ranked first in the country with land transfer amount of 173.9 billion yuan.

Market participants believe that in recent years, the net increase in the permanent population of Hangzhou, the rise of new first tier cities, the key development of the Yangtze River Delta region and the active transfer of the land market have enabled Hangzhous property market to have sufficient purchasing power.

Ningbo, which is also a hot city in the Yangtze River Delta, also broke the restrictions on purchasing in disguise after relaxing the net inflow of population and introducing talents after settling down. As a result, the average price of new residential buildings in Ningbo in June rose by 1.33% month on month, ranking the first in China.

In the first half of the year, Nanjings real estate market showed multiple factors, such as the breakthrough of the price limit policy for commercial housing, the active transfer of land market, the rise of land price, and the inversion of the first-hand and second-hand house prices of some projects. In some hot areas and hot buildings, tens of thousands of people were lotteries.

Among them, the month on month increase of new houses in Nanjing in April ranked first among 70 large and medium-sized cities in the data of National Bureau of statistics. In the first half of the year, Nanjings land grant also reached 76.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.98%.

With the introduction of a series of regulatory policies, the real estate market has also made a rapid response.

However, Ningbo has expanded the scope of purchase restriction to nearly the whole area after the regulation and control, as well as the inclination of housing resources for families without houses, which has disrupted the pace of local development projects. Although the policy has not been published for a long time, the data is still difficult to show, but after July, there is almost no new pre-sale certificate, which has a significant impact on the sales side. A person familiar with Ningbo market told interface news.

Rapid recovery of property market

Therefore, at least 12 cities, including Zhumadian, Guangzhou, Baoji, Jinan, Haining, Liuzhou, Qingdao, Jingzhou, Chifeng, Huaian, Wuwei and Ningyang, had experienced the situation of one-day tour of deregulation.

According to the market point of view, the emergence of the one-day tour is an attempt to stimulate the overall economy by taking advantage of the epidemic situation after the epidemic, and all localities hope to carry out a trial by loosening the restrictions on the local property market. But then it was stopped or adjusted, which shows that the basic principle of preventing real estate overheating will not be changed due to the impact of the epidemic.

It is worth noting that although the epidemic has affected the overall operation of all walks of life in the first half of the year, the recovery speed and trend of the domestic real estate market are quite obvious after the resumption of work and production.

In terms of the land market, in January and February of this year, the overall transfer of land in the whole country dropped sharply, and there were lots of land that had not been sold for a long time. In the first half of this year, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises reached 79.65 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of only 0.9%, and the decline rate was 7.2 percentage points lower than that in the previous half year. Among them, the land purchase area of national development enterprises in June was 32.13 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% 2.1%u3002 In terms of price, the average price of land purchase in the first half of the year increased by 6.8%.

In the sales end market, in the first half of the year, the sales area of real estate commercial housing in China was 69400 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings decreased by 7.6%, and the sales of office buildings and commercial buildings decreased by more than 20%. However, the average transaction price of commercial housing in China increased by 3.3% year-on-year, of which the average transaction price of residential buildings was 9757 yuan / m2, up 5.3% year-on-year, and the average transaction price of office buildings and commercial business buildings fell.

From the above indicators, it is not difficult to see that after the heavy damage of the overall market in the first quarter, the real estate industry recovered quickly in the second quarter and basically returned to normal conditions, especially the data related to commercial housing showed a year-on-year rise.

On the other hand, the index of real estate funds can explain some problems more. According to the data of the Central Research Institute, in the first half of the year, real estate development enterprises put in place funds of 8.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points compared with January may. Domestic loans reached 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.5%, accounting for 16.5%; self raised funds were 2.7 trillion yuan, up 0.8%; deposits and advance payments were about 265 million yuan, down 7%; personal mortgage loans were 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1%.

The report points out that, thanks to the continuous easing monetary environment and related supportive policies in the early stage, market sentiment continues to improve and demand continues to make up.

The relatively loose monetary environment provides capital conditions for the real estate market to warm up. In fact, many hot cities in the first half of the year witnessed the inflow of low interest business loans and consumer loans into the property market, prompting the market to recover.

Although the overall market recovery is better than expected, the recovery degree of each real estate enterprise in the first half of the year is not the same.

According to wind data, as of July 23, 51 A-share listed real estate companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the half year of 2020, and 14 companies are expecting to be happy, with a positive rate of 27.45%. The more obvious trend is that the overall profitability of small and medium-sized enterprises is not good. Only 10 real estate enterprises are expected to realize the net profit of more than 100 million yuan belonging to the listed shareholders, and more than 20 real estate enterprises are expected to suffer losses in the first half of the year.

Wu Xianghua, executive director of the Tiancheng real estate research institute of Nanjing University of technology, said that strict regulatory measures will have a more significant impact on the improvement of these cities and the sales of just needed real estate, and such projects are the key development projects of enterprises: the loss of these customers will have a great impact on the overall market psychology, and then affect the actual turnover of the city, causing such development enterprises It needs to be prepared.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the current round of regulation and control is due to the unbalanced recovery of the market and the overheating of some cities, so the regulation policy is still one policy for one city: the main feature is that the three types of anti-counterfeiting policies of false settlement, false divorce and fake talents are mostly patched up and have not been upgraded greatly. Moreover, this round of regulation and control is established in the real estate market and is not comprehensive Regulation on the basis of fire.

Through the settlement of talents, lowering the threshold of house purchase is an important factor in revitalizing the property market in a large number of second and third tier cities in the past two years. Since 2017, hot cities such as Hangzhou, Wuhan, Xian, Chengdu, Nanjing and Suzhou have continuously introduced talent policies, which have injected new vitality into the property market while competing for talents.

Zhang Dawei believes that at present, the trend of tightening the property market in many places has appeared. According to the performance of hot cities in the first half of the year, more cities are about to introduce upgrading and regulation policies.

A regional marketing director of a central enterprise real estate told the interface news that the current upgraded regulatory policies have not touched the credit crunch, and most cities have not tightened the purchase restriction conditions severely. Therefore, the main function is to stop a number of speculators bypassing the restrictions, which will not have a negative impact on the normal operation of the market.

In fact, the Shenzhen market is overheated, and enterprises are also very nervous. They all hope to lower the temperature and wash away some investors. A Shenzhen insider said that taking the Shenzhen market as an example, the long-term supply of new houses is less than the demand, and the regulation and control also blocked a number of denominators accompanying the lottery, which has little impact on the marketing results of enterprises.

Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo real estate agency, said that due to the influence of price limit in some cities, it is difficult to reverse the situation that the market is in short supply. For enterprises in key first and second tier cities, there is still a good market space and opportunity: but if this round of moderate regulation policy fails to achieve the expected cooling effect as scheduled, it is likely to be similar to Like Dongguan, more stringent regulations have been introduced. If the regulation is tightened step by step, it will bring about fundamental pressure on the local markets.

It can be said that after the ups and downs of the first half of 2020, all walks of life, including real estate, are in urgent need of recovery. And how to find the right balance between housing speculation and economic growth will become a new topic to test the wisdom of all regions.