How to go after A-share adjustment? How to configure? Lets see what the Fund says

category:Finance
 How to go after A-share adjustment? How to configure? Lets see what the Fund says


In terms of industries, Shenwans 28 first-class industries were all negative, while securities companies, science and technology and pharmaceutical stocks led the decline in the sector; agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining and military industries saw relatively small declines.

The actual net sales of northbound funds were 16.357 billion yuan.

Extending to this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.54%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.37%, the gem index fell 1.3%, and Kechuang 50 fell 3.75%.

Why does A-share callback? How can I get to the back market? How to configure?

Here comes the idea of seven public funds.

Generally speaking, fund companies are not pessimistic about the future market.

Image source / visual China

Haifutong: not pessimistic about the follow-up performance of equity market

Chen Linhai, assistant fund manager of Haifutongs quantitative investment department, said that reviewing the market this week, broad base indexes all showed a sharp correction, and the market switched from the rapid rise of the previous period to a volatile pattern.

In terms of style, the performance of the partial consumption attribute plate is stronger than that of the technology sector, which can be observed from the relatively late rise of the tmt50 index in the recent 5 days and the recent 10 days; the performance of the CSI 1000 stock market this week is stronger than that of the Shanghai Stock exchange 50 and Shanghai Shenzhen 300, indicating that the performance of the stocks with small and medium market value is better than that of the large market value stocks in the near future.

In terms of industry index, this weeks rise in defense and military industry, leisure services, non-ferrous metals, power equipment and so on. In addition to the military industry, other rising plates are partial cyclical attribute plates, indicating that the market has high expectations for economic recovery. This weeks lower growth industries are TMT, food and beverage and finance, which have increased more in the earlier period. Generally speaking, strong stocks have obvious make-up effect.

From the perspective of the whole market, Chen Linhai mainly analyzes from valuation, enterprise profit and risk-free interest rate (liquidity). Overall, the market has risen from a relatively undervalued state to a more reasonable range of valuation. At present, the market valuation structure is seriously divided. The valuation of leading pharmaceutical and technological consumer companies with a large increase in the early stage is in the historical upper limit region, while the financial and real estate companies with partial cyclical attributes and some small market value stocks are still at low valuations.

From the perspective of micro enterprise profit, the marginal improvement of performance of listed companies is obvious. From the interim report performance disclosed by the company, 615 of the more than 1300 companies that have been disclosed have increased, accounting for 47.3%, compared with 30.2% in the first quarter; the proportion of companies reporting loss in the interim report accounts for 28%, slightly lower than 29.3% in the first quarter.

Chen Linhai believes that the margin of macro data is better, and the data of the second quarter is higher than market expectations. It is generally believed that economic growth will gradually rise in the second half of the year and continue to recover. This round of inventory cycle was interrupted and delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, especially in response to the epidemic, the global central banks are easing policies, but from the current point of view, the two-year inventory cycle starts again.

At present, the main concern of the market is liquidity. Specifically, when the economy is better, whether the liquidity will be tightened marginally depends on the latest setting of the Politburo meeting at the end of July.

On the whole, Chen Linhai is not pessimistic about the future market. He is optimistic about the pro cyclical industrial chain, export, consumer electronics, science and technology, medicine and so on. We should pay attention to the changes of exchange rate and monetary policy.

Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund: a growth plate optimistic about the upward trend of the industry in the medium and long term

On July 24, the market fell sharply. According to the analysis of Shanghai Investment Morgan Fund:

1) The external game intensifies in the short term, which hinders the market risk preference. Recently, the United States and China have asked each other to close their Consulates General in Houston and Chengdu, which has exacerbated the markets concerns about Sino US relations in the short term and dragged down the markets risk appetite. Affected by this, northward funds continued to flow out, with an outflow of about 16.4 billion yuan per day on July 24. At the same time, institutional funds also flowed out from the weight plates of securities companies, liquor, tax-free, etc., aggravating the market pressure;

2) The first batch of scientific and Technological Innovation Board companies concentrated to reduce their holdings, which affected market sentiment to a certain extent. On the one-year anniversary of the listing of science and technology innovation board, related companies ushered in a wave of reduction. Affected by this, the Kechuang 50 index fell 7.02% to 1389.3, with a large range of shocks in many stocks.

Shanghai Investment Morgan believes that although the short-term data has improved, the economic recovery rate is weak. In the first half of the year, many economic indicators are still negative. It is still early to judge the policy shift, and the relatively loose environment will be maintained throughout the year.

The Politburo meeting will be held in late July to set the tone of the policy. According to Morgan, the policy rate will remain stable and may tend to be neutral, but it is difficult to turn to tightening.

Since the second quarter of this year, the market has continued to fluctuate upward and has accumulated a large increase. It is difficult to say that the valuations of many industries and high-quality stocks are not cheap. Therefore, it is difficult to avoid the market volatility adjustment in the short term.

But on the whole, with the slow economic recovery and PPI bottoming up, A-share earnings growth is expected to stabilize upward, and the growth industry performance elasticity is greater. The monetary policy slows down in the short term, and there is still more room in the medium term. The impact of overseas liquidity spillover on a shares is positive. Shanghai Investment Morgan predicts that the market will still be in the upward phase in the third quarter. At the same time, under the background of risk-free rate of return falling, the attractiveness of domestic equity assets has improved, and the judgment of investing in Morgan is still more positive for medium and long-term A-share opportunities.

China Merchants Fund: there is little room for the index to go down sharply and actively look for structural opportunities

China Merchants Fund believes that the sharp adjustment in the market on July 24 was related to the large-scale reduction of the scientific and technological innovation board and the fall of American stocks overnight, which led to the outflow of northward funds. On the one hand, the large-scale reduction of the Sci-tech Innovation Board has also exerted a certain drag on the science and technology sector. On the other hand, the number of new initial jobless benefits announced on July 23 rose for the first time since April, and the US stock market showed a significant adjustment. On July 24, the northward fund showed a large net outflow.

For the follow-up trend, the Investment Fund believes that the market has been rising too fast, and some parts of the board have a tendency to bubble. The fall is the re release of market adjustment pressure.

China Merchants Fund believes that, subject to the epidemic situation and economic situation in foreign countries, domestic and foreign liquidity is still not likely to be tightened in a trend. At the same time, various real economic data in the second quarter continue to improve, and the trend of broad credit is expected to continue in the third quarter. There is not much room for the index to decline significantly. At the current time point, we can still look for structural opportunities with a positive attitude. In the next stage, we should pay attention to the setting of the meeting of the Political Bureau China and the United States game progress and other events.

In terms of sectors, we can focus on the post cyclical consumption of real estate and undervalued financial and construction sectors in the pro cyclical industries; for the consumer, pharmaceutical and technology sectors, we should continue to keep the advantages and eliminate the bad ones, and we can appropriately cash in the profits of some stocks that have been overvalued.

Wanjia Fund: facing the short-term market shock, the long-term downward space is limited

Wanjia Fund believes that the market callback on July 24. On the surface, the decline of the market has clear external disturbance factors, such as the passive closure of the Chinese Consulate General in the United States, the overnight decline of the NASDAQ index by more than 2%, and the first reduction of holdings after the lifting of the ban on the science and technology innovation board.

But from the technical point of view, Wanjia fund is more inclined to think that the adjustment on July 24 is a repeat of the adjustment on July 16. After the last market adjustment, in the case of insufficient trading volume, it quickly returned to above 3300, which gave a new opportunity for the funds that had not been able to take profits in time.

The continuous adjustment reflects the markets concern about the change of domestic and foreign situation under the epidemic situation and the query of the rapid rise of the current market. Wanjia Foundation believes that after a long period of economic adjustment, the necessity of rejuvenating the country through science and technology and structural transformation has also penetrated into all aspects of economic development, and has made gratifying achievements. Chinese investors have seen Chinas global competitive advantage under the current system after being hit by deleveraging, Sino-U.S. trade differences and the new crown epidemic. This advantage is naturally measured by the value scale of the capital market. Therefore, Wanjia funds believe that even if the market is volatile in the short term, the downward space is limited in the long run.

Ping An Fund: external factors bring about short-term adjustment. In the long run, the A-share rate maintains an upward trend

The market fell sharply on July 24. According to the analysis of Ping An Fund:

1. Due to the uncertainty of Sino US relations, foreign investment has been loosened. After the United States asked for the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, on July 24, China, in accordance with the principle of reciprocity, asked the United States to close its Consulate General in Chengdu.

2. The current Sino US friction is not new, and investors should be determined. The Sino US trade friction started in 2018, and this event is a further continuation. We cant decide the macro event. What investors need to consider is to make the optimal decision in the existing macro environment and keep calm in front of the short-term disturbance factors.

4. The A-share rate maintains an upward trend. In the short term, after the rapid rise of the market, periodic adjustment is inevitable. However, the stable epidemic situation, improved fundamentals, loose liquidity and the release of reform dividends determine that a shares are expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term. In the long run, there is still room for improvement in the proportion of long-term institutional funds such as insurance funds. Chinas overall securitization ratio is low, and there is a large space for the national demand for investment. The equity market is on the rise for a long time. Referring to the stock market trend of the United States and other developed countries, the equity market has ushered in the great development of the equity market after the economic slowdown.

In the allocation strategy, Ping An fund suggests that investors should dilute the macro impact, select high-quality asset allocation, maintain their determination in the market turbulence and seize structural opportunities. Ping An fund still adheres to the bottom-up selection of individual stocks, making a layout around the consumption industries such as medicine, quality consumption and consumption upgrading, 5g, chips, new energy and other growth industries, and will be committed to continuously creating income for investors.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund: the long-term trend of A-share is better as a whole

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that the main reason for the market adjustment on July 24 is the drag of external factors. The U.S. affairs have a certain impact on the short-term trend of a shares, but have little impact on the bull market trend of a shares in the medium and long term. Northbound funds continue to flow out in the near future. On the one hand, it is the demand for profit taking, on the other hand, it is the reaction to negative factors. Therefore, there is a large amount of capital outflow in the near future. It is believed that foreign capital will continue to flow into a shares before the end of the year.

Yang Delong said that some of the previously issued funds have completed their positions, but most of the new funds have not reduced their positions. Therefore, this adjustment actually provides us with the opportunity to copy the bottom.

Yang Delong pointed out that the U.S. economic recovery is now facing new risks. Although the decline in the second quarter and the decline in U.S. GDP are close to the decline in the great depression, the decline in the third and fourth quarters will not significantly recover, because the epidemic situation is rapidly climbing in the United States, and the uncertainty of the U.S. economy is rising again. Real time data suggest that the US economic recovery may be losing momentum, which is very risky for the United States.

Yang Delong believes that the rise of the US stock market and the massive drain of the Federal Reserve have pushed up asset prices, but the US economy has not kept up. This is the main risk of the United States. If the economy faces a big decline, the bubble of the US bull market may again punctured and fall for the two time, which will have a great drag on the performance of the global capital market.

Relatively speaking, the trend of A-share market has a certain degree of resilience. Chinas epidemic situation has been basically controlled, and the economy is also recovering steadily. GDP in the second quarter has turned positive and achieved a growth rate of 3.2%. The GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters is likely to rise to more than 5-6%, which will bring support to the stock market.

Yang Delong pointed out that on July 24, A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, which was related to both internal and external factors. The market itself had the demand for adjustment. Since the rise started on July 1, the rise was too fast and too fast, and accumulated a large number of profit margins. The unilateral rise is difficult to sustain. After that, the market will turn to a volatile market, and the market will turn from a fast bull to a slow bull. This weeks trend basically reflects this point, the market has gone out of a big shock adjustment trend. But the bull market is still there. The trend of the bull market in the market has formed and will not change much. Yang Delong said that on the whole, the current market is in the adjustment period after the rapid rise, and the depth of adjustment may not be too large. The main reason for the larger adjustment on July 24 is that the resonance of internal and external negative factors has a great impact on market confidence, and the adjustment time is estimated to be about a week or two. Holding high-quality stocks is the best strategy to deal with market fluctuations In the long run, we should remain confident and patient, and there are still opportunities for the market in the medium and long term. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF4425

Yang Delong pointed out that on July 24, A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, which was related to both internal and external factors. The market itself had the demand for adjustment. Since the rise started on July 1, the rise was too fast and too fast, and accumulated a large number of profit margins. The unilateral rise is difficult to sustain. After that, the market will turn to a volatile market, and the market will turn from a fast bull to a slow bull. This weeks trend basically reflects this point, the market has gone out of a big shock adjustment trend. But the bull market is still there. The trend of the bull market in the market has formed and will not change much.

Yang Delong said that on the whole, the current market is in the adjustment period after the rapid rise, and the depth of adjustment may not be too large. The main reason for the larger adjustment on July 24 is that the resonance of internal and external negative factors has a great impact on market confidence, and the adjustment time is estimated to be about a week or two. Holding high-quality stocks is the best strategy to deal with market fluctuations In the long run, we should remain confident and patient, and there are still opportunities for the market in the medium and long term.