Hong Hao: the next resistance of A-share is 3500 points

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 Hong Hao: the next resistance of A-share is 3500 points


Hong Hao

The A-share market has fluctuated a lot recently, and the valuation difference between different sectors is quite obvious. The expectation of the whole market should be reshaped. I believe that many people firmly believe that the epidemic will always pass, and Chinas experience also tells the world that if we make up our minds, the epidemic can be controlled. If you think that human beings will surely overcome natural disasters, you can consider cycle related stocks in this years economic recovery period or early next year, because cycle stocks are now very cheap. Even if the economic cycle does not recover, the probability of losing money is still very small because of the low valuation of cycle stocks and value stocks. No matter what the future, these stocks will have a call like return, which is limited down, but there is still a lot of room to go up.

I always think technology stocks are very good. In fact, you can also pay attention to some undervalued sectors, mainly including cyclical stocks and old industrial stocks. Chinas cyclical stocks started to lose around 2010, while foreign cyclical stocks began to lose 20 years ago. It can be said that the length and range of the cycle stocks losing have reached the highest point in history. Therefore, this also allows investors to have a relatively safe intervention point.

In November last year, I published my outlook for this years stock market. At that time, the trading points calculated by the model were between 2500 and 3500 points, and the most likely trading points were 2700-3200 points. At present, the actual trading is 2675-3000 points. The trading point stayed in this range for more than eight months, and was finally broken. I think the next resistance is 3500. At present, 3500 point resistance is relatively obvious, it is near a high point in the early stage. The forecast of A-share market should be reconsidered after reaching 3500 points, focusing on the long-term. We should try our best to avoid short-term prediction and short-term operation, because in a major market environment, the probability of hitting a short-term forecast is very low. From the first week of January 2019 to now, the upward trend of the stock market is obvious, and the low points are constantly rising. Therefore, I dont think we should be too entangled with short-term fluctuations, otherwise the investment mentality will collapse. It should be remembered that investing in companies rather than speculating in stocks is actually two completely different mindsets.

There is only one kind of bull in a share market, which is mad cow

The stock market is the forecast table of the economy, not the barometer. Because the stock market is ahead of the economic recovery, many people confuse the two concepts. In other words, the current performance of the stock market is consistent with the economic recovery in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Therefore, it is normal for the stock market to deviate from the real economy.

There is only one kind of bull in A-share market, which is mad cow. Do not call it structural bull, long bull and slow bull. As long as the liquidity comes, people will have the mood to do more. Its normal, its always been. The formation of a bull market requires the following conditions: the economic fundamentals are acceptable, the monetary policy supports, and investors have expectations for the stock market. Based on these conditions, the current A-share market can be compared to the level in the second half of 2014.

People think that the purpose of changing the index is to make the index rise. The starting point is very strange

Index adjustment is certainly a good thing. After the adjustment, companies with good economic development can stand out and the stock market can better reflect Chinas new economic structure. However, I think its strange that the purpose of changing the index is to make the index rise. The purpose of changing the index is to make the index better reflect the economy. If it can better reflect the economy and the economy is growing, the index can rise accordingly.

This article is the exclusive contribution of Netease Research Bureau and does not constitute investment decision.

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