Super dry! Big data reveals 100 yuan stock is refined like this

category:Finance
 Super dry! Big data reveals 100 yuan stock is refined like this


The latest market value of Guizhou Maotai is more than 2 trillion yuan, which is the largest stock in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. Its contribution to the market value of a shares reaches 2.6%, and its latest closing price is 1595.3 yuan. In the past, there were only three stocks with a share price of more than 500 yuan in the A-share market. Besides Maotai in Guizhou, there were also gibbet and Kanghua bio.

According to the above comparison, it is not difficult to see that the leading share prices in the US and Hong Kong stock markets are dominated by technology stocks. In contrast, A-share King is consumer liquor, some investors questioned: is Maotai expensive, for the current share price, Maotai is not?

According to the public data, the ex factory price of 53 degree Feitian Maotai has increased steadily, and the price difference between the general retail price (including the guiding price) and the ex factory price is not particularly wide, and most of the time, the supply is in short supply. If the per capita disposable income of residents is compared, the price of a bottle of Maotai liquor accounts for less than 10% of the annual income. Some people may think that the proportion is still too high, but in fact, the data in the past three years show that this proportion is showing a downward trend.

The valuation of Maotai in Guizhou is not the highest among baijiu

In terms of years, in the 12 years from 2009 to 2020 (up to the latest closing date), Guizhou Maotai has 10 times of annual rise and fall. In 2016, the market fell by 12.31%, and Guizhou Maotai rose by 56.45%; in 2018, the market fell by 24.59%, and Guizhou Maotai fell by 14.21%. The stock price of Maotai in Guizhou has risen steadily from below 600 yuan to about 1700 yuan in recent two years.

However, looking at the whole A-share market, Guizhou Maotais annual growth rate has not been significantly higher, such as 268 in 2016, 228 in 2019 and 847 in 2020.

Valuation can best reflect whether the current stock price of Guizhou Maotai is expensive. Because its brand value and other aspects are separated from the statement, it is more meaningful to measure it by P / E ratio. According to the statistics of databao, from 2009 to 2018, the rolling P / E ratio of Guizhou Maotai was lower than the average of liquor industry. At the end of 2013, the P / E ratio of Guizhou Maotai was less than 10 times, and that of liquor industry was more than 22 times; at the end of 2018, the average p / E ratio of liquor industry was close to 45 times, but Guizhou Maotai was only 23 times.

In recent two years, with the substantial growth of Maotai stock price in Guizhou, the P / E ratio has increased, but there is not a big gap with the average p / E ratio of liquor industry. At the end of 2019, the P / E ratio of Guizhou Maotai is 36.31 times, and the latest P / E ratio of 2020 is 46.52 times. However, the average p / E ratios of liquor industry are 35.3 times and 39.42 times respectively. Among them, there are 4 liquor stocks with the latest P / E more than Guizhou Maotai, Jiugui Liquor, Shunxin agriculture and Shanxi Fenjiu are all more than 60 times. From this point of view, the valuation of Moutai in Guizhou is not a big bubble in the liquor sector. (Zhang JUANJUAN, databao)

Performance and chip scarcity boost stock price

According to the annual data, the stock price of Berkshire Hathaway has increased or decreased since its listing, and the same has happened in Maotai, Guizhou. The biggest reason lies in the sustained and stable growth of the companys performance and the scarcity of chips.

From the performance point of view, according to the data from 2010 to 2019, the annual gross profit margin of Guizhou Maotai is stable at around 90%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company continues to grow, and the growth rate of non net profit in the past ten years has almost all exceeded 15%; in terms of investment return, the net return on assets of Guizhou Maotai in the past 10 years has never been lower than 20%, except in 2015 and 2016, the return on net assets in other years has exceeded More than 30%.

In terms of chips, according to the latest data, the institutional shareholders of Maotai in Guizhou province hold nearly 80% of the shares, which accounts for more than 95% of a shares. In other words, retail shareholders only hold 258 million shares (with a total capital of 1.256 billion shares). Some investors may ask why Maotai, Guizhou Province, does not split its shares at such a high price. However, it is not common in the A-share market, and it is becoming increasingly unpopular in the world. After all, stock splitting may cause investment and irrational speculation risks. As a high price King of A-share market, we have to consider a series of advantages and disadvantages brought about by stock split.

Because of the above reasons, combined with high-quality performance, Guizhou Maotai is sought after by investors, and the stock price rise has become a probability event.

If the scope of stock selection is enlarged, the return on net assets in the past 10 years is greater than 15%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is greater than 0. In addition, the net profit in the first quarter of this year has continued to grow. After screening, there are only 10 A-share markets. In addition to Guizhou Maotai, there are also pianzai Huang, Hengrui medicine, China Merchants Bank, etc. Among them, Dahua shares and Enhua pharmaceutical achieved growth. In terms of market performance, from the beginning of 2010 to the latest closing date, except for the Bank of Guizhou, the remaining 9 stocks were all up. The stock price of pianzheng rose more than 20 times, the shares of Hengrui pharmaceutical, Guizhou Maotai and Dahua rose more than 10 times, and the shares of Enhua pharmaceutical, China Merchants Bank and Ningbo bank all doubled.

A hundred yuan stock is rare for more than 3700 A shares. Data treasure statistics show that as of the latest closing date, there are 104 100 Yuan stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and there are 77 stocks without considering the new shares listed this year. Are the performance and valuation of these 77 100 Yuan stocks match the higher stock price?

First of all, from the perspective of valuation, the valuation of 100 yuan shares is at a high level as a whole, with an average p / E ratio of 121 times. There are 54 stocks lower than the average value, accounting for more than 70%. There are only three stocks with P / E ratio less than 30 times, including Yanghe shares, Yunnan Baiyao shares and Tianyu shares. Among them, Tianyu shares, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and other 7 shares are all lower than the industry level. At the end of last year, the P / E ratios of Tianyu, Jiangshan oupai and Yingke medical were less than 20 times.

From the performance of last year and the first quarter of this year, there are 70 performance growth stocks in 2019 and 46 stocks with continuous growth in the first quarter of this year, accounting for nearly 60%. Among them, Wentai technology, Weiwei shares and shuoshi biological 3 shares increased by more than 500% in the first quarter of this year.

It is not difficult to find that the above-mentioned 77 shares, whether in terms of company valuation, performance or investment return, have formed a great support for the stock price rise. According to data bank statistics, among the 77 high priced stocks mentioned above, the results of this years interim report are expected to be good. In 2019, a total of 10 stocks with a return on net assets of more than 20% are distributed in the three industries of pharmaceutical biology, electronics and media. Since the beginning of the year, these 10 stocks have all achieved a big rise, and 4 stocks, such as bear electric appliance and Kangtai biological Co., Ltd., have doubled. It is worth buying, Shennan circuit still has more than 20% growth space; Xinmai medical and Tianyu shares have more than 15% growth space.

Source: Securities Times editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF