Last month, major German media wrote articles and analyzed that external pressure from the United States would not change Germanys attitude towards Huawei.
(the picture shows a comment by Stephan Scheuer, a reporter from German business daily, who thinks Huawei will still participate in the construction of 5g in Germany.)
Last summer, German Minister of economy, artmeier, visited China twice in a short period of time, and had a long one-on-one conversation with Ren Zhengfei, President of Huawei, which was widely interpreted as a kind of promise of the German government to Huawei.
Many media and experts have written a lot about the prediction and Prospect of Germanys future 5g development plan by the bizarre geopolitics of Asia, Europe and the United States. The 5g issue has been highly politicized and has long been a consensus in the industry. The author has no intention to add the argument of snakefoot. Only from the perspective of the internal demand power of German communication equipment suppliers and operators and the social and political structure, this paper will explain why Germany will develop in the future 5g construction may only be more and more tied to Huawei, not the opposite.
Germany -- fast horse in the cabal
As a country whose industry accounts for more than 20% of the total economy, Germany has gradually consolidated its position as the economic leader of the European Union in the past ten years. In the 2G and 3G era, Germany has played a very important role in the development of mobile communication in the whole European continent. However, after the advent of the 4G era, it has been subject to a series of macro policies such as the value orientation of regulatory policies and the development cycle of network investment The European Union, represented by Britain, France and Germany, has significantly reduced its sense of presence in the global mobile communication market. A prominent feature is that it has not incubated influential mobile Internet enterprises in the world.
Taking Germany as an example, the investment and innovation capacity of the three major telecom operators, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone and Telefonica Deutschland, have obviously lagged behind East Asia and North America in terms of investment and innovation capacity in new technologies. As a result, it is still unable to stably cover 4G network in the subway of Berlin, the capital of Germany, and a large number of mobile communication blind areas in first tier cities let Germany face Facing the 5g wave, there is a funny sense of overtaking on the curve in the third world countries. After all, the countrys current mobile broadband penetration rate is only 58th in the world.
But relatively speaking, Germany is still a fast horse in the overall 5g construction of the European sector. First of all, the German Federal Office for information security (BSI) and the German Federal Network regulatory agency (bnetza) have gradually explored a set of relatively mature legal and regulatory framework on a series of issues such as 5g license negotiation and Internet information security review. For example, Huawei Matex became the first 5g mobile phone to obtain the official EU certificate, which is the third-party inspection, inspection and certification agency in Europe In addition, Germany is the first big country in Europe to auction 5g spectrum successfully, while Britain and hesitant France have not yet auction 5g spectrum due to epidemic situation and other reasons Put the sale on the agenda, stand up.
Hans riding the wind and waves -- Germany has completed 5g spectrum auction
In my opinion, whether the 5g spectrum allocation or auction can be completed effectively is one of the milestone events to measure whether the 5g construction in a country can be truly implemented. We can regard the 5g spectrum game between governments and communication operators as a kind of Leviathan social contract. The former issues business licenses to the latter, provides threshold protection, formulates industry standards, and divides various Entrances. Several major operators stand on the wind, recruit and open their doors in the form of protection fees.
By the end of the first half of 2019, after nearly three months of deliberation and planning, the 5g spectrum auction in Germany has come to an end. Through the auction, it has raised 6.55 billion euro, which is much more than the industrys estimated 5 billion euro. In fact, from the moment the hammer fell at the meinz barracks auction, it means Huawei has officially entered the fast lane of 5g construction in Germany. This is mainly due to the following reasons:
1u3001 The 5g spectrum auction means Huawei has officially passed Germanys potential security risk review. So that all sectors of the German society can only stay at the superficial level of public opinion about whether Huawei has a back door of technology and whether it cooperates with the Chinese government to steal secrets. After the auction, the major communication operators must fulfill the regulatory and operational obligations set by the German government, all of which are based on the approval of the mobile communication infrastructure behind them. Otherwise, the spectrum auction will lose the significance of contracting between Party A and Party B. both Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone have extensive cooperation with Huawei. Without Huawei, they will continue for 5g days For example, Deutsche Telekom plans to provide 5g coverage for 50% of the German population with the bandwidth of 2.1GHz. Without the hardware support of Huawei, the mobile equipment supplier, all plans can not be carried out.
2u3001 The high cost of 5g spectrum bidding makes the major operators miserable, leaving Huawei a lot of operation space. What is the cost performance of 5g spectrum auction in Germany? A other can see clearly. Last July, Ericssons chief executive, borje ekholm, denounced European governments for taking advantage of financial incentives to harvest major telecom operators by killing chickens and laying eggs, expressing the voice of Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone. Deutsche Telekom made a bid of 2.17 billion euro and obtained 13 bands of spectrum. However, their business executives complained bitterly about the South Germany daily and Le Monde, believing that the price was too high compared with Switzerland and Austria, and even 45% higher in some frequency bands. The profit seeking nature of capital makes them only cut back in cost control, so Huawei is definitely the most appropriate choice. Huawei not only has nearly 2800 5g related patents, but also its equipment price is 20% - 30% lower than its competitors. Moreover, Huawei is already familiar with the construction of 3G and 4G in Germany. Therefore, it is almost the only way out for them to continue to strengthen cooperation with Huawei.
The German government owns a 31% stake in Deutsche Telekom, and their path can partly represent the direction of German politics (@ SDB)
3u3001 After the UK announced the divestiture of Huawei 5g construction, let us recognize Huaweis dominant position in spectrum allocation once again. The lack of spectrum resources and lack of base station equipment are the old difficulties of 4G construction in old Europe. After the UK announced 5g construction and Huaweis separation, several major operators in the country were even more distressed. Because Huaweis equipment is the worlds best in handling fragmented spectrum, this capability is not possessed by Nokia or Ericsson, which threatens to replace Huawei. Overall speaking, it is worth mentioning Dafeng begged the British government to allocate rather than auction 5g spectrum. Behind its humble gesture, there is a hard to say cost. At present, the cost calculation caused by splitting up with Huawei is far from the problem of tens of billions of pounds, because the British regulatory authorities believe that it is almost impossible for operators to conduct spectrum trading with each other after auction. Spectrum fragmentation will increase the cost of terminal equipment and hinder Nokia or Ericsson from further stepping into the British Isles.
In contrast, major German telecom operators have already divided their sites and at least have 5g construction goals for the next three or four years. For example, the general manager of Deutsche Telekom has stated that half of the German population will be able to use 5g by the end of the year. In terms of cooperation with Huawei, Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone have formed a situation of competing for favor.
Huaweis German version of rural Encircling Cities
Most of Germanys population lives in rural and suburban areas. Due to historical reasons, the economic integration of East and West Germany is still in progress for more than 30 years since reunification. Under political pressure, several major German telecom operators still reserve Huawei to some extent, and tend to exclude Huawei from the core networking functions. But Huaweis overall layout in Europe and its internal layout in Germany have a taste of rural Encircling Cities.
Proportion of rural population in German states and 4G signal coverage
Huawei has 24 branches in Europe, 14 of which are located in central and Eastern Europe and Northern European countries. Warsaw is Huaweis second capital in the European Union. As a base, it eastwards to Brandenburg and other places in Germany to open up new territory in many 5g base station blind areas. This is a backhand of Huawei in Germany, because Deutsche Telekom uses dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS) technology at 2.1GHz frequency After 5g deployment, the CBD business districts in Berlin, Munich, Hamburg and other big cities take a relatively pure upper route, but take less care of the rural areas (laendlich). Therefore, East Germany and rural areas are exactly the ingenious layout of Huaweis slightly cold stove. Only when we have a deep understanding of this, can we deeply understand why Germanys 4G construction is bound to be unable to leave Huaweis 5g construction.
On Germanys backhand
In addition to the above reasons, Germany is also familiar with the resource allocation game theory of eggs cant be put in the same basket. Therefore, the regulatory authorities and the German federal government have left a special backhand to reserve a unique 5g frequency band (mainly 3.7-3.8ghz) for industrial applications. This frequency band does not occupy the commercial frequency band previously auctioned out in Germany. According to the current major German According to the news disclosed by the media, the main partner of 5g band for industrial application in Germany is Ericsson, an old brand telecom equipment manufacturer in Sweden.
In any case, Huawei will continue to face a new round of close combat between operators and equipment suppliers in Germany. Germany, which completed the 5g spectrum auction in 2019, can be regarded as the first year of 5g. All the past is a preface, but if the writer of the preface cant get rid of the old demons of Huawei, then all the prefaces are nothing but the past.