Why did the province achieve economic growth in the first half of this year?

category:Finance
 Why did the province achieve economic growth in the first half of this year?


16 provinces achieve positive GDP growth

Tibet has the highest GDP growth rate this year. According to the peoples daily, in the first half of this year, Tibets GDP reached 83.838 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year. The per capita disposable income of urban residents reached 20151 yuan, an increase of 8.8%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents reached 4425 yuan, an increase of 10.4%. Private investment increased by 63.7% year on year.

Xinjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, Ningxia, Hunan and Qinghai rank second to seventh in GDP growth, with GDP growth rates of 1% or more.

It is worth noting that except for Hunan, which is the central part of the country, all the regions with GDP growth of more than 1% in the first half of this year are all western provinces.

These areas are all areas with low urbanization rate. The proportion of the primary industry which is relatively low affected by the epidemic situation is relatively large, or the dominant industries are less affected.

In the same period of last year, Guizhous GDP increased by 7.95 billion yuan, compared with the first half of last year. In the first half of the year, the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery of Guizhou Province was 104.776 billion yuan, 5.4% higher than that of the same period of last year, and the growth rate was 3.0 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. In addition, in the first half of the year, Guizhous key industrial industries grew rapidly. The added value of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry increased by 7.0% over the same period of last year, coal mining and washing industry increased by 2.3%, tobacco product industry increased by 7.6%, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.0%, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.1%.

Hunans GDP in the first half of the year was 1902.64 billion yuan, up 1.3% year on year. In the first half of the year, the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Hunan was 154.78 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, 4.9 percentage points higher than that of the first quarter. The added value of large-scale industries in the whole province increased by 1.9%, 4 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. From the perspective of key industries, tobacco products industry increased by 3.1%, general equipment manufacturing industry by 6.8%, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry by 12.3%, and special equipment manufacturing industry by 16.8%.

Strong infrastructure

Driving the positive economic growth in these regions in the first half of the year, there is also a strong infrastructure.

According to the data released by the Tibet Statistics Bureau, in the first half of the year, Tibets investment in fixed assets increased by 18.5% over the same period of last year, and the investment in real estate development increased by 56.1% over the same period of last year.

In addition, infrastructure investment in Hunan increased by 5.2% in the first half of the year, up 9.7 percentage points from the first quarter. Infrastructure investment in Qinghai maintained a rapid growth, with a year-on-year growth of 21.0% in the first half of the year, and the growth rate was 16.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.

Zhongtai Securities pointed out that there are differences in economic recovery among different regions, which may be due to the rapid recovery of production investment and slow recovery of consumption in the domestic economy after the epidemic. Therefore, the provinces where the growth rate of fixed assets investment rebounded more in the second quarter, the economic growth rate also rebounded more in the second quarter, while the correlation between the recovery rate of consumption and the recovery rate of economic growth in each province was not strong.

This can also explain why the economic growth in some regions with developed economy and consumption is still negative in the first half of the year, because residents Consumption Willingness is in the process of recovery.

If we observe the rebound rate of infrastructure investment in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, some places are catching up. According to Zhongtai securities, Jiangsu recovered the fastest, infrastructure investment growth in the second quarter recovered by 32 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter, and Hubei, Anhui and Gansu also recovered more than 20 percentage points; Guangxi and Guizhou recovered slowly, only about 10 percentage points.

Table source: China Thailand securities and wind (Note: individual provinces use may accumulated to replace the second quarter) Guorong Securities said that in the medium term, GDP growth in the second half of the year will continue to rise, and the probability of economic normalization will increase. Consumption contribution is expected to increase. Alternative consumption such as automobiles and household appliances is expected to rebound. Offline consumption and services such as catering, tourism, aviation and entertainment are gradually recovering. Exports may be better than expected, and the dark moment of economic shock in Europe and the United States is passing. If epidemic prevention and isolation are gentle, foreign demand will continue to improve in the third quarter. Under the background of consumption and exports contribution to economic growth steadily increasing, the significance of real estate and infrastructure investment to the economy may be weakened. In this way, the economic recovery of the provinces in the second half of the year will present another trend. Among them, the regions with higher consumption are expected to usher in a stronger economic recovery. Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Guo Chenqi_ NBJ9931

Source: China Thailand securities, wind

Guorong Securities said that in the medium term, GDP growth in the second half of the year will continue to rise, and the probability of economic normalization will increase. Consumption contribution is expected to increase. Alternative consumption such as automobiles and household appliances is expected to rebound. Offline consumption and services such as catering, tourism, aviation and entertainment are gradually recovering. Exports may be better than expected, and the dark moment of economic shock in Europe and the United States is passing. If epidemic prevention and isolation are gentle, foreign demand will continue to improve in the third quarter. Under the background of consumption and exports contribution to economic growth steadily increasing, the significance of real estate and infrastructure investment to the economy may be weakened.