We have 100 days to go before the US election

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 We have 100 days to go before the US election


Point one: who will Bidens vice president partner be?

Biden had already said that he would announce the vice presidents partner by August 1, while in previous debates within the party, Biden said he would choose a woman. Of course, opinion polls show that almost all of the potential candidates Biden is examining are not well-known in the United States, some of whom have not even heard of in their own states. Although Biden himself led trump by a large margin in the polls, the choice of vice presidents partner should not be sloppy. At that time, Hillary Clinton did not choose a partner who could bring her some votes, but chose a partner who could help her to govern better. As a result, she lost the presidency.

What about Biden? The latest Pew poll shows that trump and Biden supporters vote for very different reasons. The vast majority of trump supporters vote because they support trump himself, and the vast majority of Biden supporters vote because they are against trump. In other words, not many people actually voted for Biden because they supported him. Bidens big lead in the polls now is that a number of anti trump camps are united behind Biden. The situation is favorable, but it is not stable. As a result, this obviously makes Biden more careful in his choice of vice presidents partner. He has to think about choosing a candidate who can excite his own camp, rather than making his coalition vulnerable.

Bidens choice of partner is also an important consideration, which strategy should cater to? The trend of the Democratic Party in recent years is that the strength of the radicals has been growing. In New York State, there have been cases in which the old leaders of the party have been elected by young people in the primary election. If we operate according to the traditional election strategy, Biden should pay more attention to the independent voters in the two parties and even some conservatives who dislike trump after winning the support of the party. After all, the ideological differences between the Democratic radicals behind him and his opponents are too big to vote for his opponent. According to this logic, Biden should choose a moderate (such as Harris). However, the lesson for the Democratic Party in 2016 is that although many radicals in their own camp will not vote for each other, they will not go out to vote for various reasons (for example, his favorite Sanders was actually sacrificed by the Democratic Leadership), while trump just activated the voting rate of his own basic round, especially the voters in the key swing states There was too much pandering to the middle and Democratic voters and won by a narrow electoral margin. According to this logic, Biden should choose a partner (such as Warren) who can activate the basic set of his own camp.

Point two: how is trump going to package Biden?

Trump has always said, we havent started yet. Dont worry.. Trumps campaign team has repeatedly said that it is still far from election day, and that anything can happen, we have a lot of room for improvement.. Trump did not forget to remind everyone that in 2016, the poll also said that he was a lot behind, but won in the end?

Trumps so-called promotion space, to a large extent, is his operation on what label to put on Biden, which is also his consistent practice during the election. Since the 2016 Republican primaries, trump has nicknamed almost all of his opponents, which is equivalent to creating a negative brand image for voters to dislike. At the beginning of this years primary election, trump nicknamed Biden as sleepy Joe to show that Biden is too old to be qualified for the presidency. Next, trump will continue to use his good packaging expertise to package Biden as a person who caters to the extreme left, ignores the law, is coerced by various interests, and is unable to govern. In recent days, trump has begun to work on key voters in the urban-rural fringe to instill some Biden related image into them.

Trump once called Biden sleepy Joe at the public opening

In the United States, to spread such a concept to package opponents, it depends on the media. Trump has always been an expert at manipulating the media. In 2016, he used to ignite the news cycle to obtain free media resources and enhance his exposure. Now, not only is trump still firmly focused on the media because of his identity as president, his re-election campaign team and the Political Action Committee related to him have spent $983 million - the number at this point in history. Not only that, Trumps team has plenty of cash on hand (almost 300 million at the beginning of July), and Trumps money is still more even in the unprecedented fundraising of Biden in July. A large part of this money will be used to advertise and package our competitors.

Point 3: is the poll credible?

The miscalculation of the results of the 2016 US election poll has led many people to wonder whether the traditional methodology for predicting the election results is still valid? One of the more common views is that many trump supporters are too shy to declare their true attitude in public, and some even lie to investigators, which leads to a large number of people who are not identical in appearance and appearance to vote for trump, which leads to the inconsistent results of civil reconciliation. Those who have such an idea will think that this situation still exists in 2016, and that it is a false impression that Biden leads by a large margin.

First of all, people who really understand the forecasting methodology dont think that the models that predict Hillary Clintons victory in 2016 are really wrong. Most models dont say that Hillary Clinton will win 100 percent, but some relatively rigorous scientific forecasters give a winning ratio - for example, the poll website 538 gave trump a 3:7 win ratio at that time, that is to say, according to the data of the poll, the probability of trump winning is 30%.

30% is not a small probability. Although it is less than 50%, it is closer to 50% than to 0. If your area has a 30% chance of a major geological disaster in the next week, wont you rush out? Moreover, these models for predicting electoral votes are often based on local data for each state, especially swing states. And all of these states have a margin of error. In the end, Trumps votes are basically within the frame error range. Therefore, we should not directly overthrow the methodology of the whole science just because the final result is not accurate. On the contrary, the methodology of those who based on the same data that trump is certain to win, or those who make subjective judgments without relying on any data, are less credible - even if the final result is correct.

Secondly, the social expectation error mentioned above, which is shy of publicly supporting trump, also has no data support. In 2016, almost all the states in which trump outperformed expectations were in red states and swing states, while Hillary Clinton also performed better than expected in blue states - which resulted in the final vote winning and voters losing. If this kind of error between the poll and the actual vote is classified as social expectation error, does it mean that Hillary Clinton has almost as many secret supporters as trump? Can secret supporters still be a major factor in the outcome?

Of course, the polls mathematical model is still credible, but it cant be superstitious. We are now living in a time when there is often a black swan incident. Sometimes there is a time difference between the people and the black swan incident. It is possible that the data can not reflect the sudden change at the last moment. For example, a few days before the election, COMEY suddenly announced that Hillary Clinton was still under investigation, which could affect many peoples voting choices, but might not be included in some models because it was too close to the election time (or it was too late to collect any more polls).

In addition, the analysis of future election results is largely based on the data modeling of previous election behavior, which may contain many assumptions about fixed effect, that is, some variables affecting election will be considered to have almost the same impact on some specific samples each year and will be assumed to be basically unchanged - after all, the model can not take all the worlds trust into account All interest will be included. This year is obviously a year with many special circumstances, including the new crown epidemic, economic shocks, ethnic demonstrations and so on. Even trump himself may be a special case. Therefore, it will be a great challenge for social science practitioners. Generally speaking, the predictions made by reliable professionals supported by data are more trustworthy than those made by purely subjective judgment without data support. However, what kind of prediction can be made by data model can not only depend on the results, but also learn to look at the prediction methodology itself, especially the error range and probability.

Point 4: how will the voting itself proceed?

The new crown epidemic will have a great impact on the entire voting process of the United States. A series of problems, such as how to register in advance and how to send out a letter vote, could have been solved through people to person interaction. Some non-governmental organizations also directly provided opportunities for voter registration and consultation in public places. Now, because of social isolation and other reasons, some people have no access to these non-governmental organizations at all. They may not register once they are lazy.

Targetsmart, a democratic data company, recently found that new voter registration dropped sharply during the new coronavirus pandemic, while voters registered in highly competitive states were whiter, older and less democratic than before. That is to say, although the number of democratic and Republican voter registration decreased significantly during the epidemic period, the decrease of Democratic Party was much greater. If this trend does not change, the 2020 general election may be a low turnout election. Its also an unexpected boon for trump.

Also, because of the new outbreak, the percentage of mail votes may be higher than before. In the United States, only Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington state all year round use letter voting as a voting option. Today, another 29 states allow the use of letters for absentee balloting without giving reasons. But voting by mail is still an unfamiliar way for the vast majority of Americans, and its hard to say how it will affect the election. But it is worth noting that this years election results may not come out the same night as in previous years, because the processing of letters takes a lot of time.

In addition to the above four points, there are still many areas worthy of attention, such as if trump loses, will he accept the result and transfer power peacefully, and whether the candidates themselves and important members of the team will withdraw due to the impact of the new coronavirus, and so on. But there is no doubt that this years election is far-reaching. For example, we will also focus on whether the Senate will eventually turn blue, because there are signs that the Democratic Party will continue to control the house of Representatives. Biden is in a good situation. Once the Democratic Party controls the White House and the house of Representatives, it will be much easier to push forward relevant policy issues - which may also affect the composition of the Supreme Court in the future. On the other hand, if the house and Senate are still dominated by different parties, then American politics will remain deadlocked.

When asked what to do if trump does not want to leave the White House after his reelection failure, Bidens answer is that the US military will escort him out of the White House

In addition, this years elections are not only important for the president and members of Congress, but also for grass-roots elections. The historic significance of the Democratic Partys defeat in the 2010 mid-term elections has been underestimated by many. That year is the census year, and the grass-roots government will directly participate in the demarcation of new constituencies (which is also an important factor affecting the electoral votes in the future). Today, the quantitative research of political science is more and more developed. Drawing a political map that is extremely beneficial to the party through Jerry salamander can lay the advantage for a whole decade - that is why Republican candidates always lose votes but win electoral votes in recent decades. This year is another year of population census, so the election of grass-roots government is also very crucial.

And for us, it is also crucial for us to see who will be president and who will stay in Congress in the end, whether Sino US relations can return to rationality and get rid of the various uncertainties at present. At present, we cant arbitrarily say that Bidens election is more conducive to Sino US relations than Trumps election. I have concluded from the text analysis of the presidents state of the Union speech of 42 years ago that the change of attitude towards China in Washington policy circle began around 2006. In fact, trump, to a certain extent, played cards in a disorderly way to disrupt the influence of Washingtons policy circle on China Hard rhythms play a moderating role - but when Biden is elected, we can at least know that bilateral relations will be more rational and crises will be more controllable.

What do you think of the next 100 days?

This article is from Dafeng, which only represents the viewpoint of we media of Dafeng.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source: observer.com editor in charge: Yuan Yijiao_ NB14956