How about the recovery of auto market after bottoming out and rebounding?

 How about the recovery of auto market after bottoming out and rebounding?

After the bottom rebound in the second quarter, whether Chinas auto market can continue to recover strongly and whether the annual auto sales volume can reduce the decline rate as much as possible is a question lingering in the heart of the whole industry.

Selling cars is the top priority

What is different from the past is that the number of new cars in the exhibition is relatively small, and most brand owners are also focusing on the promotion of listed models.

According to the 21st century economic report, luxury brands have contributed to the appearance of most of the new models, including Mercedes Benz, Audi, Land Rover, Lincoln, Weilai and other luxury brands have released or listed their new models.

Among them, BMW has brought a new 4-series and a mid-term version of minicountryman, both of which are on pre-sale, while the cla / CLA hunting edition of Mercedes Benz has been launched on the market. Among the second-line luxury brands, the hardline SUV guard of Land Rover was officially launched, while Lincoln appeared with the brand-new Lincoln aviator. Weilai, a new luxury brand of electric vehicles, has launched a medium-sized pure electric suvec6 benchmarking Tesla modely. Ec6, which originally planned to sell at the price of modely, was the first to give the market answer.

In comparison, joint venture brands and independent brands have fewer new models.

Among the joint venture brands, Dongfeng Citroen released its first new energy vehicle, Tianyi c5aircross PHEV. Among the independent brands, Great Wall Motor has the biggest battle, and all four of its major brands have participated in the exhibition, and they have showcased the new Euler black cat, white cat and es11, the third generation of Haval H6, haver dog and tank 300. In addition, the red flag of FAW Group also displayed its flagship model H9 of H series, but it is expected to be officially launched in August.

However, it is difficult to distinguish the degree of care of each brand to the market. It is understood that although many brands have not released new models, they are still actively participating in the exhibition. On the one hand, they have launched new models released this year, on the other hand, they have also displayed their best-selling models and given promotional discounts. After all, this is the first large-scale auto show since the epidemic, and no one wants to miss this opportunity.

Slow recovery of auto retail

The overall situation of the automobile market, especially the passenger car market, is still not optimistic.

According to the data recently released by the passenger Federation, in the first half of this year, the retail sales volume of narrow sense passenger cars was 7.704 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5% -- higher than that of wholesale sales of the automobile industry. According to the data of CAAC, the sales volume of automobiles in the first half of the year was 10.257 million, down 16.9% year on year.

The reason for the gap is that the recovery progress of passenger car market is weaker than that of commercial vehicle market, and the recovery of retail sales volume is also weaker than that of wholesale sales.

Driven by infrastructure investment, the sales volume of commercial vehicles increased by 8.6% in the first half of this year to 2.384 million units. Especially in June, the sales volume of commercial vehicles increased by 63% year-on-year to 536000 units, setting a new record after April this year. In contrast, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in the first half of the year was 7.66 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%.

The retail market, which is close to the average consumer, has recovered slowly - although car sales have picked up in the past two months, retail pressure remains. According to the data of China Automobile Circulation Association, in the latest June, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of national automobile dealers was 1.74, up 26.1% year-on-year and 12.3% month on month. The inventory level is above the warning line. This is also the inventory coefficient for two consecutive months after a rebound.

Mainly due to various activities and policy subsidies in April and may to stimulate consumption, overdraft market demand. In the report, the Circulation Association said that at the wholesale end, due to the increase of sales promotion activities such as automobile exhibitions in many places and promotion in the middle of 618, automobile enterprises further increased the pressure on Dealers - both ends were squeezed, and inventory pressure soared. The association reminds that in the case of oversupply, dealers are prone to trade in quantity for the completion of assessment tasks, which eventually leads to the reduction of their own profits.

Can the V-shape trend continue?

In the second half of the year, will the market continue to recover the upward trend?

The preliminary performance in July may be used as a reference. Although there is a certain decline, but the overall trend is relatively stable. According to the latest data of the Federation of passenger cars, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars in the first three weeks of July was 32174, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a month on month decrease of 7%; while from the wholesale sales of major manufacturers, the average wholesale sales volume of the first three weeks was 36918, an increase of 8% year-on-year, but a decrease of 11% month on month.

The Association expects that the retail market will show a seasonal decline in July, but it still shows a slight growth due to the low market base in the same period last year.

According to the analysis, the effect of local stimulus policy weakened in July, and the promotion activities of automobile enterprises and dealers also entered the adjustment period after experiencing the peak at the end of June. Meanwhile, the restrained consumption demand during the epidemic period was basically compensated in the second quarter, which made a very limited contribution to the sales volume in the second half of the year. In addition, the recent flooding in many places will also have an impact on the production, logistics and terminal sales of automobiles.

However, the SFC also pointed out that in the medium and long term, the external environment of the auto market will continue to improve, and the confidence in automobile consumption will gradually improve.

For the prediction of the whole years car market, the cooperation of China Automobile Co., Ltd. has made two dimensions of optimistic and pessimistic forecasts. If the global epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the automobile market will continue to show stable development, and the annual automobile sales volume is expected to drop by about 10%; however, if the overseas epidemic situation continues to spread and has not been effectively controlled, the annual automobile sales decline may be about 20% Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said it remains to be seen whether the car market can maintain a double-digit positive growth trend in May and June this year in the second half of this year.

Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Guo Chenqi_ NBJ9931