In the second half of the year, the domestic auto market will enter a relatively stable development process, basically the same as last year. If the market recovers well in the second half of the year, the decline rate of the automobile market may recover to less than 10% Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said.
Photo source: Photo Gallery
According to the passenger Association, with the comprehensive control of the epidemic situation in Beijing and the gradual reduction of the response level, marketing activities around the country will gradually resume. This years Chengdu auto show was held at the end of July for the first time, and the release of new cars in summer will be relatively early. The strong new product communication will promote the automobile market to strengthen in the second half of the year. At the same time, the reduction of resource prices brought about by the international epidemic situation is also good for automobile enterprises to reduce costs. With the improvement of enterprise operation, the automobile enterprises have more resources to promote the market strength in the second half of the year.
Combined with the calculation of recent automobile consumption stimulus policies, it is estimated that the sales volume of domestic passenger cars will increase by 6.7% - 7% month on month in the third quarter, 3.7% - 4.2% year-on-year; 14% - 14.5% in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.0% - 1.1%; and the annual passenger car sales are expected to decline by 9.9% year-on-year. Liu Wenting, an analyst with Zhejiang securities, believes that in the second half of this year, the domestic auto market sales volume is expected to continue to grow month on month, and the industrys operating conditions will continue to improve compared with the first half of the year, with market sales picking up, discount stabilizing and inventory returning.
V type trend
Production and sales hit a new high in June
In June, the overall performance of Chinas automobile market continued the growth momentum of May and continued to show double-digit growth. At the same time, Chinas automobile production and sales in June also set a new record in the same month. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said in an interview with reporters from the daily economic news.
Photo source: CAAC
According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail sales of Chinas narrow passenger car market reached 1.654 million in June, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% and a month on month growth of 2.9%. The retail sales have been growing month on month for four months. The main reason for the year-on-year decline was the high retail base caused by the low price drop of national five models in some regions in June last year. From the month on month increase in June, the V-shaped trend of Chinas passenger car market sales in the first half of the year has become a foregone conclusion, which shows that the policy of promoting consumption after the epidemic has a good effect on guiding the market to recover. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the travel union, analyzed and said.
From the specific model point of view, SUV is still the main force of this round of car market recovery. In June, a total of 766000 SUVs were sold in China, with year-on-year and month on month growth of more than 1%, while cars and MPV models showed negative growth year on year.
The wholesale sales volume of new energy vehicles in June was 85600, a year-on-year decrease of 34.9%. Cui Dongshu believes that the downturn in the new energy vehicle market in the first half of 2020 is mainly affected by the high base in the same period. In June last year, subsidies for new energy vehicles dropped sharply, resulting in the sales of new energy vehicles concentrated in the first half of the year. However, the sharp drop in sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of last year will provide a favorable environment for the new energy vehicle market in the second half of this year.
It is worth noting that in the near future, the market share of the sales volume of more than 250000 yuan has continued to increase, while the market share of the sales volume of entry-level passenger cars has declined sharply. From 2017 to the first half of 2020, the market share of passenger cars below RMB 80000 is 28%, 25%, 19% and 16% respectively. The Association believes that this is mainly due to the gradual increase in the proportion of current exchange groups and the gradual upgrading of consumers purchasing power, showing a trend of higher average car consumption prices year by year.
According to the data from January to June, the automobile market was significantly affected by the epidemic situation in the first half of the year, showing a V-shaped trend. Finally, 7.704 million vehicles were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5%. According to the Federation, the decline in auto retail sales in the first half of this year was mainly due to the early spring festival and epidemic factors. According to the quarter, 2.08 million vehicles were lost in the first quarter and 170000 vehicles were lost in the second quarter.
Photo source: Travel Association
There are multiple factors behind the double-digit growth of car sales in June, such as the effective control of domestic epidemic situation, the sustained role of promoting consumption policy, the resilience of Chinas economy and the consumers enthusiasm for consumption. Chen Shihua said.
If the domestic and overseas epidemic situation is effectively controlled in the second half of the year, Chinas automobile market will continue to show stable development, and the annual automobile sales volume is expected to drop by about 10%; however, if the overseas epidemic continues to spread and has not been effectively controlled, the annual automobile sales decline may be about 20%. In general, CAAC is relatively optimistic about the automobile market in the second half of the year. Xu Haidong said.
The Council predicted that due to the early implementation of the national six emission standards last year, dealers dumped goods at low prices, and the price recovered after July, resulting in a decline in sales. In the first half of this year, the terminal price of Chinas automobile market is well maintained, and the market inertia in the second half of this year is expected to grow steadily.
In June, the domestic luxury car market was still unique.
According to the latest data of China Travel Association, in June, the domestic luxury car market sales volume was about 246200, with a year-on-year growth of 27% and a month on month growth of 9%, with a market share of 14.9%. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume of domestic luxury car market was about 1053400, with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, which was the only market in the three major market segments to achieve positive growth. Especially in the second quarter, the growth rate of luxury car market reached 29%, showing strong performance.
Cui Dongshu believes that the high growth of the domestic luxury car market is mainly due to the combination effect of the downturn in the car market caused by the shrinking purchasing power of entry-level consumers and the one up and one down driven by the upgrading of the purchase demand of former car buyers. At the same time, the growth of luxury brand demand of young groups also drives the rapid growth of luxury cars. In addition, under the epidemic situation, the purchasing power of the middle and low-end groups has further decreased, and the high-end purchasing power is strong, and the formation of differentiation is intensified; the real estate boom in the county and township markets diverts the purchasing power of ordinary consumers, and the luxury car groups suffer less damage; the policy supports the consumption of second-hand cars and exchange purchase, and promotes the high growth of automobile consumption.
From the perspective of market share, in the first half of this year, the sales of luxury cars accounted for 13.5% of the sales of passenger cars, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared with 6% of the total sales of passenger cars in 2015.
Photo source: Cui Dongshu official micro
Cui Dongshu predicted that with the gradual recovery of the overall car market, the downward trend of luxury car market products accelerated, and the gradual increase of new energy, the domestic luxury car growth rate will still be faster than the overall growth rate of the car market. At the same time, the penetration of luxury cars in the SUV market still has great potential, which will squeeze the space of joint venture brands and independent brands, and further intensify the market competition. In addition, imported luxury cars are affected by more and more external environmental factors, and it is an inevitable trend for domestic luxury cars to continue to strengthen.
According to the data, in the first half of 2020, the sales of imported cars accounted for 25% of the total sales volume of the domestic luxury car market, while in 2019, the sales volume of imported cars accounted for 28% of the total sales volume of the luxury car market. This means that the proportion of the sales volume of imported luxury passenger cars is decreasing year by year.
BBA (Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi) has become a big winner in the domestic luxury car market. The top ten domestic luxury car sales in June were all taken over by BBAs products. Among them, Benz ranked first in the first half of the year with 346000 vehicles, followed by BMW and Audi with 329100 and 311900 respectively. In the second half of the year, BBA has introduced new products into the market, such as BMWs first pure electric suvix3, Mercedes Benzs new glasuv and new generation E-class. At that time, the competition for BBAs annual sales in China will be more intense.
Photo source: provided by the enterprise
Volvo is another stable player in the second camp of domestic luxury cars. In June, Volvo sold about 15000 vehicles in China, up 14% year-on-year; from January to June, the cumulative sales volume of Volvo in the Chinese market was about 65600, a year-on-year decrease of 3.16%.
The sales of JLR in China in the first half of the year are also gradually picking up. According to the latest data, as of the end of June, the sales of both the Jaguar and Land Rover brands in China have achieved four consecutive month on month growth.
American Series ushers in growth period
Domestic passenger car market has achieved recovery growth for four consecutive months. In the view of the SFC, driven by various factors of policy and market, the sales volume of the car market in June achieved the expected effect, but the differentiation among brands is becoming increasingly obvious. Especially in the joint venture car enterprises, the leading role of German and Japanese car companies is increasingly apparent.
Photo source: Travel Association
According to the data of the travel Federation, the proportion of German car market has increased from 25% in 2019 to 26.8% in the first half of this year. In this process, the masses of the north and the South contributed a lot. FAW Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen ranked the top two in the sales list of passenger car enterprises in June, among which the sales volume of FAW-VW in June increased by 1.9% year-on-year.
In June, the performance of Japanese car companies was also eye-catching. Dongfeng Nissan, FAW Toyota, GAC Toyota, GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda accounted for half of the top ten passenger car sales in June, ranking fifth, seventh to tenth.
Photo source: Travel Association
Specifically, Dongfeng Nissan Xuanyi sold more than 50000 vehicles in June, and more than 200000 in the first half of the year, accounting for more than 40% of the total sales of Dongfeng Nissan, and became the only passenger car product to achieve this figure.
Dongfeng Nissan is closely followed by two joint ventures of Toyota. Among them, FAW Toyotas sales volume increased by 9.1% year-on-year in June, relying on the three main models of corolla, RAV4 Rongfang and Asian Dragon. GAC Toyota, relying on the tnga family of Camry, leiling, c-hr and willanda, achieved a 5.6% year-on-year increase in sales in the first half of the year.
In GAC Hondas report card, the car sector and SUV sector showed a balanced performance. In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales volume of sedan matrix exceeded 130000 and that of SUV matrix exceeded 145900. Dongfeng Honda, which is located in Wuhan, did not perform well in the first quarter because of the epidemic, but with the recovery in the second quarter, it achieved the average monthly sales of CR-V, civic and xr-v of more than 10000.
As for the strengthening of mainstream Japanese brands, some analysts think that due to economic fluctuations and other factors, the consumer market is generally worried about the reduction of disposable income, and the choice of vehicle models tends to be pragmatic and rational. The performance of Japanese cars in economy, stability and value preservation rate is more prominent, and therefore it is sought after. In the first half of this year, the market share of Japanese cars has increased from 21.9% in 2019 to 24.1%.
It is worth noting that the market share of American cars is also gradually increasing, from 8.5% in 2019 to 9.2% in the first half of the year, ushering in a long overdue outbreak.
Photo source: Cadillac official website
Among the three major brands of SAIC GM, Buick and Cadillac achieved year-on-year growth in June, while the Chevrolet brand experienced a double-digit year-on-year decline.
In terms of Ford Motor, with the launch of new Ford brand products and the promotion of Lincoln brand localization speed, Fords growth rate is obvious. According to the data released by Ford China, Ford sold 158000 new cars in Chinas automobile market in the second quarter, up 3% year-on-year and nearly 80% month on month.
In contrast, Korean cars and French cars perform poorly. Among them, the market share of Korean cars dropped to 3.9% in June, reaching the bottom in recent years. In the face of difficulties, Korean car companies hope to improve their market sales through personnel adjustment. According to incomplete statistics, Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Yueda Kia two Korean joint venture automobile enterprises have changed nearly 10 executives this year.
The performance of French cars is even worse. In June, the sales volume of French cars fell 68.1% year-on-year, and the sales volume in the first half of the year fell 73.3% year-on-year, and its market share also fell to the lowest 0.3% in recent years.
Independent brand opens share defense war
In the first half of this year, the life of independent brands was not easy.
However, it is worth noting that the top 15 ranking of comprehensive sales of passenger cars in narrow sense from January to June shows that the independent top three are all on the list. Among them, Geely Automobile ranked No.4, the same as last year, but its market share increased from 6.2% to 6.6%; Changan Automobile increased from No.10 to No.6 last year, and its market share increased from 3.6% to 4.8%; while Great Wall Motor fell from No.7 to No.12 last year, and its market share dropped to 3.7% from 4.1% last year.
Photo source: Travel Association
Specifically, Geely still holds the champion position of its own brands. In the first half of this year, the cumulative sales volume was about 530000 vehicles, achieving 38% of the annual sales target of 1.41 million vehicles. On June 17, Geely announced that it plans to return to the A-share sci tech innovation board, or it will boost its future sales performance.
Changan automobile has many bright spots in the first half of the year. According to the data, the sales volume of the main board was about 147000 in June, with a year-on-year increase of 37.1%. With the recovery of cs75, Changan Automobile Co., Ltd. increased by 4.1% in the first half of the year, becoming the only auto enterprise to achieve positive growth among the independent top three. Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. said in the research report analysis that the introduction of uni-t and Eason plus two incremental models in 2020 will drive the continuous growth of Changans independent sales.
In the first half of this year, the second runner up of its own brand was great wall motors. In June, the cumulative sales volume of Great Wall Motors was about 82000, an increase of 29.6% year-on-year; in the first half of this year, the cumulative sales volume of great wall motor was about 395000, increasing month on month for four consecutive months.
Photo source: Daily Economic News
Recently, Great Wall Motors has made a lot of moves. From the naming of its HUFFER big dog and Euler white cat to the micro film that Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, shot for great wall motor when he was just a man, has caused a lot of heated discussions in the industry. In the second half of the year, after the launch of the new generation of Haval H6, Great Wall Motors may have a better sales performance.
In the second independent camp, sales of SAIC passenger cars, Chery and BYD in the first half of the year were about 253000, 197000 and 157000, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, 23.7% and 30.2%. The launch of new models has become a magic weapon for them to increase sales, and even take the form of cash red packets to attract consumers to buy. For example, SAIC recently launched the third-generation mingjue 6, with an official price range of 93800-139800 yuan, and now you can enjoy 6000 yuan of listed cash red packets when you buy it; Chery Automobile recently launched Xingtu lx1.5t wind breaking version, with the official price range of 109900-116900 yuan, and now you can enjoy 10000 yuan of listed cash red packets when you buy; BYD has launched the blade battery of Han, bu The selling price range is 219800-279500 yuan.
SUV win in the middle school entrance examination
In June, SUV market continued to maintain a rapid recovery. According to the data of the Travel Association, the domestic SUV production in June was 828000, with a year-on-year increase of 26% and a month on month growth of 9.7%; the comprehensive sales volume was 766000 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% and a month on month growth of 1.5%. Compared with sedan and MPV, SUV market recovery is still ahead.
Drawing by sun Tongtong
From January to June, the cumulative output of SUVs was 3.543 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%; and the cumulative comprehensive sales volume was 3.567 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%. Although compared with the same period last year, the SUV segment market still outperformed the market in the first half of the year, and the production and sales performance were better than those of the car and MPV markets.
It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, SUV market share further increased to 46.3%. Based on the popularity of SUV market, accelerating the launch of new SUV models and upgrading of existing products have become an important task for automobile enterprises in the first half of the year. According to the incomplete statistics of the daily economic news reporter, in June alone, there were 38 new SUV models on the market, including new vehicle series, new models, medium-term modifications and other different categories.
Photo source: Geely Auto official website
From the perspective of product structure, the consumption of SUV market shows a trend towards high-end products. From January to June, the market of A0 class and A-class SUV market declined seriously, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.4% and 17.9%, respectively. The decline rate was higher than the overall level of SUV, while the market of class B SUV increased slightly by 0.9%.
From the perspective of brand countries, the trend of consumption upgrading is also very obvious. From January to June, the sales volume of independent SUV decreased by 26.3%, that of mainstream joint venture SUV decreased by 9.2%, while that of luxury SUV increased by 9.3%.
Although the independent SUV is facing great challenges, the top three sales of SUV in the first half of the year are still independently contracted, they are haver H6, Changan cs75 and Geely boyue.
Drawing by sun Tongtong
It is worth noting that among the top ten SUV sales in the first half of the year, Changan cs75 and BYD song grew faster. In fact, thanks to the support of cs75plus, since this year, Changan cs75 has begun to speed up its competition for market share and become a strong competitor for the SUV champion. At the same time, Changan Automobile also stepped up product upgrading, and the first model uni-t of its high-end product series was officially launched in June. At present, the order growth is fast, and it is expected to become the next popular model. BYD song became a black horse with the help of Pro version, and its sales volume increased by 331.9% in the first half of the year.
Mercedes Benz GLC has also become a big attraction. In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales volume of Benz GLC was about 76900, with a year-on-year increase of 15.03%, ranking the eighth in the list. As a representative of luxury brands, Mercedes Benz GLC also confirmed the trend of consumption upgrading.
In contrast, from January to June, Tiguans cumulative sales volume was about 79300, a year-on-year decrease of 40.6%, ranking the fifth place from the second place in the same period last year. In response to this decline, SAIC Volkswagen has stepped up the upgrade of Tiguan lphev this year, which is expected to bring new vitality to Tiguan.
It is worth mentioning that the domestic MPV market share is shrinking year by year in recent years. According to the data, the market share of MPV in narrow sense passenger cars in 2017 was 8.7%, 7.6% in 2018 and 6.7% in 2019, showing a downward trend. From January to June this year, the overall market share of MPV in narrow sense passenger cars was 5.6%, including 6.1% in the first quarter and 5.3% in the second quarter, narrowing by 0.8% as a whole. The MPV market is still showing a declining trend.
Photo source: Travel Association
In terms of specific models, Wuling Hongguang sold about 22100 vehicles in June, down 30.9% year-on-year; from January to June, the cumulative sales volume was 126800, down 33.2% year-on-year. At the same time, Baojun 730, Geely Jiaji, BYD song Max and other A0, A-class MPV models showed a year-on-year decline of more than double-digit.
On the contrary, the sales volume of medium and large MPV models represented by Buick GL8, Dongfeng Honda Allison, GAC motor gm8 and Mercedes Benz V-Class showed a good performance of double-digit year-on-year growth in June. Some analysts believe that this means that the future development of MPV market tends to be passenger oriented and high-end.
It is worth mentioning that as the most representative brand in the MPV market, SAIC GM Wuling and Buick GL8 have planned the road of layout upgrading and transformation in the first half of the year. SAIC GM Wuling has released the silver standard strategy, dividing its products into commercial and passenger parts, so as to get rid of the inherent cheap label; Buick GL8 launched the high-end model Avia, which continued to expand its product coverage through product series upgrading, so as to consolidate its leading position in the domestic MPV market.
Photo source: SAIC GM Buick official website
It is based on this, even if the domestic MPV market share is decreasing year by year, car companies are still pouring into this field to start layout. At the end of May, SAIC Volkswagen went public and entered the market segment of medium and large MPV. In addition, it is reported that the new generation of Toyota Senna will usher in a domestic version, divided into two models, which are expected to be put into production in FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota respectively.
From this point of view, the future MPV market will still have more medium and high-end models introduced to launch an impact on the head position. The middle and low-end models represented by A0 and a will continue to be under pressure, and they need to upgrade their products to enhance their market competitiveness.
Pain relief in post subsidy Era
New energy vehicle market expected to become regular in the second half of the year
The new energy vehicle market in the throes of post subsidy era is gradually recovering.
Cartographer: Li Xing
The Council predicted that the average monthly growth rate of new energy vehicle sales will maintain a positive growth trend in the second half of the year. With the end of the college entrance examination, Chengdu auto show, Beijing auto show and other exhibition activities are held in the second half of the year, and the promotion and publicity activities of automobile enterprises increase, the new energy vehicle market may achieve double-digit positive growth in the second half of the year. Cui Dongshu said.
Cartographer: Li Xing
In addition to the high-end new energy vehicles represented by Model3 and Weilai, the sales performance of A00 class vehicles represented by Chery EQ, Baojun E100 and Euler R1 was eye-catching in June.
Xu Haidong believes that in the future, the consumption of new energy vehicles will tend to two ends, one end is high-end models represented by Tesla and Weilai, and the other end is medium and low-end models suitable for urban and rural markets.
Four of the top ten sales models in this ranking are A00 class vehicles, namely Chery EQ, Baojun E100, Euler R1 and clareway clever. The reporter learned that clever is a new pure electric mini car launched by SAIC in March this year. Only two months after its launch, Klever overtook BAICs EU series with 2316 bicycles, ranking ninth on the list, becoming a dark horse in the new energy passenger vehicle market in the first half of this year.
In June, the production and sales of pure electric passenger cars and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles all showed a year-on-year decline. The decline rate of pure electric passenger vehicles was still higher than that of the industry, while the decline rate of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles was slightly lower than the industry level.
Cartographer: Li Xing
Different from independent brands focusing on pure electric vehicle market, mainstream joint venture brands prefer plug-in hybrid electric vehicle market. However, so far, the joint venture brand of new energy vehicle market sales have been tepid. Some analysts believe that this is mainly due to the high price of plug-in hybrid vehicles of joint venture brands and the lack of influence of science and technology.
Reporter notes: auto market in the second half of the year is worth looking forward to
Luxury car market share reached a new high, SUV models maintained a positive growth year-on-year, and new energy passenger vehicles continued to smile curve The off-season is not weak, which is the result of multiple factors driven by policy and market. In June, Chongqing auto show and other exhibition activities have been started normally. The continuous promotion of automobile consumption promotion policies in various regions, together with the improvement of production and sales of strong brands, have promoted the market retail strength. In the first half of the year, although the cumulative growth of automobile production and sales is still negative, the overall production and sales situation has been significantly better than expected, and the auto market is gradually recovering from the haze of the epidemic.
Reporter: Li Shuo Huang Xin Xu sun Tongtong
Source: Yang Zeyu, editor in charge of daily economic news_ NF6036