According to the data of transparent house sales network, the number of second-hand houses listed in Hangzhou City exceeded 100000 units in November 2019, exceeded 110000 units in April this year, and officially exceeded 120000 units on June 17. In November 2018, only 40000 sets of second-hand housing were listed in Hangzhou, which nearly tripled in more than a year and a half. According to the client-side inquiry of Zhongxin Jingwei, about 75000 and 68000 second-hand houses in Hangzhou are currently on sale on Shells website and I love my home website.
On the one hand, the hot new and second-hand housing transactions, on the other hand, the sharp increase in the number of second-hand housing listing, which does not avoid peoples divergence on the market direction. According to the monthly turnover of more than 10000 units in April and may this year, it will take 12 months to complete the removal of 120000 sets of second-hand houses without any increase in listing, and 18 months will be required according to the average monthly turnover of more than 6600 sets (79600 sets of second-hand houses online signed) in 2019.
According to a Chongqing media report recently, the number of local second-hand houses is soaring. According to the report, according to the official data of chain house, in January 2019, Chongqing had about 48000 sets of second-hand housing, and in July 2019 it reached 90000 units. However, in July this year, the number of listing was close to 160000 units, making it the highest number of second-hand housing in China.
According to shells website, there are 137000 houses on sale in Chengdu.
According to the website of shell looking for a house and I love my home, about 92000 and 71000 second-hand houses are currently on sale in Beijing. Guo Yi, chief analyst of Hewlett Packard, told China News Jingwei client that although the listing data on some real estate trading platforms have been beautified, the general trend can be seen. Compared with last year, the number of listed houses in Beijing has increased by 20000 sets.
The increase of house supply is only single digit
Combing the media reports earlier, the changes in the number of second-hand housing listing are mostly based on the data of one or more real estate trading platforms, and it can be concluded that there is or will be a sell-off tide in the market. Is that really the case?
Take Chongqing as an example. At present, there are about 160000 second-hand housing units on shell house hunting, among which 67000 are chain houses. If we compare shell house hunting with chain houses directly, we can draw the conclusion that the number of housing resources has doubled. Therefore, we should pay attention to these conclusions. Xu Xiaole also said that the chain familys current data has been adjusted to keep consistent with the amount of listing on Shells house.
However, due to reduced trading volume and longer listing time, the listing volume of second-hand housing in some core first and second tier cities did rise slightly. According to the shell Research Institute, in June this year, 11 of the 18 cities under its key monitoring had a year-on-year increase in inventory of second-hand houses. In the first half of 2020, transactions of second-hand houses in key cities generally declined year-on-year, in sharp contrast to the general increase in inventory. Xu Xiaole stressed: the current inventory has a temporary increase, which can be seen, but the growth rate is relatively weak, the growth rate is within a single digit.
As far as Beijing is concerned, in addition to the decrease in turnover and other reasons, Guo Yi also pointed out that most of the owners listing for sale of second-hand houses have the need to change their houses and improve their houses. Due to the need to meet the requirement of a higher down payment ratio, sell one to buy one is no longer possible, and two for one needs to be sold two for one, which also leads to an increase in the number of second-hand houses listed for sale.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that the overall amount of second-hand housing listing in the first and second tier cities did not change significantly, and there was no so-called substantial growth. At the same time, even the data on the mainstream real estate trading platform are not completely reliable. When the property market regulation policy is strict, some high unit price houses can not be displayed to the public, but with the loosening of the policy, they can be displayed again. These factors will affect the change of listing quantity of real estate trading platform.
In addition, the increase of second-hand housing in some popular cities is also related to the composition of the main body of house purchase. Zhang Dawei said that Hangzhous market has been relatively hot, and there are a large proportion of investors in the group of house buyers. After the house is delivered, such buyers will soon list their houses for sale. There are also investors who just hang out their houses so that they can know the price trend and market temperature at any time, so as to make a decision on whether to continue to hold or sell.
China new Jingwei client has reported that a large number of houses were sold on the real estate trading platform shortly after delivery of some real estate projects bought by lottery in Hangzhou. A real estate agent near the store also confirmed that the property owners are basically investors.
Sell? It doesnt exist!
Hangzhou is a residential area. Photo by Xue Yufei
Guo Yi said that judging from the performance of the Beijing market, there is no selling. The listing price is also an imaginary number . In the process of trading, both the buyer and the seller will negotiate. In the past, when it was the sellers market, the negotiation moved up. Now it is the buyers market, and the bargaining price must move down. Some people may be in a hurry to change houses, or need money urgently, so that the price will be lower, so as to sell them more quickly.
Guo Yi also analyzed that the increase in the number of listing will make house prices fluctuate. There are more people selling houses, but there is no increase in the number of people who buy houses. The owners must be flexible in the price. In recent years, Beijings real estate market has entered the housing market. In some areas and suburbs with poor education resources in the urban area, the housing prices have dropped by 15% - 20%, but this decline is completed in a relatively slow process.
Xu Xiaole said that at present, the listing prices of most owners are going down, but the decline is not large. In 18 cities monitored by shell house hunting, the price of second-hand houses dropped by about 3% in June, which belongs to a normal bargaining price, and there is no substantial sale.
Second hand housing owners of the market confidence is also insufficient. According to the data of the Research Institute, in the second quarter of 2020, in addition to Shenzhen and Shanghai, the number of times for owners to adjust the price is less than 30%, of which 9 cities have adjusted the proportion below 20%. The expectation of owners is weak, and the average price may fall slightly.
For the market trend in the second half of the year, the above research institute judged that the performance of the core city was better than that of the non core city, the core area was stronger than the suburb, and the improved residential product was stronger than the rigid demand product.
Source: editor in charge of Sino Singapore Jingwei: Yang Zeyu_ NF6036