On the one hand, the hot new and second-hand housing transactions, on the other hand, the sharp increase in the number of second-hand housing listing, which does not avoid peoples divergence on the market direction. According to the monthly turnover of more than 10000 units in April and may this year, it will take 12 months to complete the removal of 120000 sets of second-hand houses without any increase in listing, and 18 months will be required according to the average monthly turnover of more than 6600 sets (79600 sets of second-hand houses online signed) in 2019.
According to shells website, there are 137000 houses on sale in Chengdu.
According to the website of shell looking for a house and I love my home, about 92000 and 71000 second-hand houses are currently on sale in Beijing. Guo Yi, chief analyst of Hewlett Packard, told China News Jingwei client that although the listing data on some real estate trading platforms have been beautified, the general trend can be seen. Compared with last year, the number of listed houses in Beijing has increased by 20000 sets.
The increase of house supply is only single digit
Combing the media reports earlier, the changes in the number of second-hand housing listing are mostly based on the data of one or more real estate trading platforms, and it can be concluded that there is or will be a sell-off tide in the market. Is that really the case?
Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of shell house search, told Zhongxin Jingwei client that he had noticed that some media had used the data of shells house sales sources in their reports, but there may be some misunderstanding in the use of the data. It is reported that the data of shell house search is compared with that of lianjia.com, but the data of these two dimensions are not comparable, because shell house search is a platform, and Lianjia is only a merchant on the platform, and the number of second-hand houses on shell house search is higher than that of Lianjia.
Take Chongqing as an example. At present, there are about 160000 second-hand housing units on shell house hunting, among which 67000 are chain houses. If we compare shell house hunting with chain houses directly, we can draw the conclusion that the number of housing resources has doubled. Therefore, we should pay attention to these conclusions. Xu Xiaole also said that the chain familys current data has been adjusted to keep consistent with the amount of listing on Shells house.
However, due to reduced trading volume and longer listing time, the listing volume of second-hand housing in some core first and second tier cities did rise slightly. According to the shell Research Institute, in June this year, 11 of the 18 cities under its key monitoring had a year-on-year increase in inventory of second-hand houses. In the first half of 2020, transactions of second-hand houses in key cities generally declined year-on-year, in sharp contrast to the general increase in inventory. Xu Xiaole stressed: the current inventory has a temporary increase, which can be seen, but the growth rate is relatively weak, the growth rate is within a single digit.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that the overall amount of second-hand housing listing in the first and second tier cities did not change significantly, and there was no so-called substantial growth. At the same time, even the data on the mainstream real estate trading platform are not completely reliable. When the property market regulation policy is strict, some high unit price houses can not be displayed to the public, but with the loosening of the policy, they can be displayed again. These factors will affect the change of listing quantity of real estate trading platform.
In addition, the increase of second-hand housing in some popular cities is also related to the composition of the main body of house purchase. Zhang Dawei said that Hangzhous market has been relatively hot, and there are a large proportion of investors in the group of house buyers. After the house is delivered, such buyers will soon list their houses for sale. There are also investors who just hang out their houses so that they can know the price trend and market temperature at any time, so as to make a decision on whether to continue to hold or sell.
China new Jingwei client has reported that a large number of houses were sold on the real estate trading platform shortly after delivery of some real estate projects bought by lottery in Hangzhou. A real estate agent near the store also confirmed that the property owners are basically investors.
Sell? It doesnt exist!
Hangzhou is a residential area. Photo by Xue Yufei
Since a substantial increase in the listing of second-hand housing in the first and second tier cities does not exist, the so-called selling tide has no basis. Zhang Dawei said that the change of listing volume is affected by many factors. It is not accurate to use this figure to predict the market trend. Whether the market is cold or hot depends on the volume and transaction price.
Guo Yi also analyzed that the increase in the number of listing will make house prices fluctuate. There are more people selling houses, but there is no increase in the number of people who buy houses. The owners must be flexible in the price. In recent years, Beijings real estate market has entered the housing market. In some areas and suburbs with poor education resources in the urban area, the housing prices have dropped by 15% - 20%, but this decline is completed in a relatively slow process.
As for the future, Guo Yi believes that with the entry of some high-end new housing projects in the urban area of Beijing, the housing prices in the core areas, especially the prices of second-hand houses, will form a support. Due to the large inventory of new houses and second-hand houses in the peripheral market, the second-hand housing prices outside the Fifth Ring Road will maintain a stable or steady downward trend.
Xu Xiaole said that at present, the listing prices of most owners are going down, but the decline is not large. In 18 cities monitored by shell house hunting, the price of second-hand houses dropped by about 3% in June, which belongs to a normal bargaining price, and there is no substantial sale.
For the market trend in the second half of the year, the above research institute judged that the performance of the core city was better than that of the non core city, the core area was stronger than the suburb, and the improved residential product was stronger than the rigid demand product.