10 years of continuous loss of new crown vaccine

category:Finance
 10 years of continuous loss of new crown vaccine


Source: kanghno official account

Recently, kangxinuo issued the letter of intent for initial public offering and listing on the science and technology innovation board, which determined the initial inquiry time as July 28, and planned to issue 24.8 million shares.

Since it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March 2019, consinor has become one of the most brilliant vaccine stocks in Hong Kong stock market. As of the close of July 24, the share price of conconor bio-b (hk06185) was HK $215 / share, with a total market value of HK $478.70, up 604.92% since its listing.

This return to the scientific and technological innovation board listing, kangxinuo is expected to become the first a + H vaccine stock.

In an interview with time finance on July 24, the relevant person in charge of kangxinuo said that listing on the science and technology innovation board was in line with the strategic planning of the companys development, and also in line with the interests of global shareholders.

The benefits of new crown vaccine are hard to predict

A novel coronavirus vaccine (Ad5-nCoV) developed by Conchino and the Institute of biotechnology of the Academy of Sciences (TheLancet) published the latest phase II clinical trial data 3 days ago. It was published in the authoritative journal of the global medical journal. The results showed that the vaccine was safe and a vaccination could induce a significant immune response, and support the vaccines effectiveness in phase III.

This is the first phase II clinical trial data of the new crown vaccine published in the authoritative journal in the world. After the worlds first human clinical trial data of the new crown vaccine was published in the lancet on May 22, kangxinuo once again led the research and development of the new crown vaccine.

The reason why conchino can run acceleration can be traced back to the Ebola virus vaccine in 2017.

It was with the development of Ebola virus vaccine that kangxinuo became famous in the first World War. On October 20, 2017, the State Food and Drug Administration announced that it approved the new drug registration application of kangsinol recombinant Ebola virus vaccine (Ad5 EBOV), which was the third Ebola vaccine in the world and the first in Asia to enter human clinical practice. Consinor became famous from this.

Like the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (Ad5 ncov), this Ebola vaccine is also produced by kangxinuo and the team of academician Chen Wei of the Academy of Military Sciences. It adopts the technical route of adenovirus vector, and the selected adenovirus vector is also ad type adenovirus vector.

It is with the early accumulation of adenovirus vaccine technology that kangxinuo has won the starting line in the global new crown vaccine research and development competition.

However, neither Ebola vaccine nor new crown vaccine is likely to become the main product of conconor in the future.

At present, concolors Ebola vaccine is only available for emergency use and national reserve arrangements, only under the guidance of regulatory agencies. Moreover, Ad5 EBOV Ebola vaccine has not yet passed the WHO pre certification, so it is uncertain to enter the international reserve.

In addition, limited by the scale and frequency of Ebola virus outbreak, the global and Chinese Ebola vaccine reserve market size is about 200 million yuan, and there will be no significant growth in the next 10 years.

As for the expected profit of new crown vaccine Ad5 ncov, konshino told time finance that it is too early to talk about how much profit the new crown vaccine can bring to the company. The new crown vaccine is still in the clinical research stage, and the corresponding planning will not be made until it is really approved.

10 years of continuous loss

If the vaccine market is compared to a quagmire, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, MSD and Sanofi are the leading players. Even with the two star products of Ebola vaccine and new crown vaccine, the 10-year-old kangxinuo can only be regarded as the new generation.

Up to now, consinor has 16 kinds of vaccine products, covering 13 disease areas, and its product line can be called gorgeous. However, none of the more than ten vaccines has been commercialized.

Over the past 10 years, kangxinuo has been in a state of continuous loss, and its operating income is even less than a fraction of the loss. From 2017 to 2019, the operating revenue of conconor is no more than 3 million yuan, which is 187200 yuan, 2811900 yuan and 2283400 yuan respectively, and the amount of loss is 64.45 million yuan, 138 million yuan and 157 million yuan respectively.

However, consinor does not intend to stop burning money. With the expansion of R & D pipelines, the R & D investment of conconor is also increasing.

From 2017 to 2019, the R & D expenses of conconor were 68.1 million yuan, 113 million yuan and 151 million yuan respectively, with an accumulated investment of 332 million yuan in three years.

Founder Securities predicted in the research report that the net profit of Kangxi Nuo from 2019 to 2021 can reach - 142 million yuan, 09 million yuan and 225 million yuan respectively, and it is expected to basically achieve balance of revenue and expenditure in 2020.

However, the outbreak seems to have put consino a step further away from profitability.

According to the prospectus, with the existing R & D projects gradually entering the clinical trial stage, the company will continue to invest in the salary of R & D personnel, consumables, instruments and equipment, inspection and testing. It is estimated that RMB 900-1.2 billion will be invested in the next three years (2020-2022), and the R & D investment will continue to increase the operating loss.

In the risk warning, Kangxi Nuo specially pointed out that according to the relevant provisions of the Listing Rules of Shanghai Stock Exchanges science and technology innovation board, if the audited non net profit is still negative and the revenue is less than 100 million yuan (including retroactive restatement), it may trigger delisting conditions.

This means that in the next four years, product sales will be particularly important for consino.

Despite the reputation of Ebola vaccine and new crown vaccine, it is difficult to become the driving force of consinos performance growth.

According to the prospectus, in addition to the two star products mentioned above, the two conjugate vaccines mcv2 (proposed trade name: Menethil) and MCV4 (proposed trade name: manhaixin) for meningitis prevention are the two products that can be approved for market in 2020.

Meningococcal vaccine can be divided into two types, namely meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine (mpsv) and meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV).

At present, mpsv has been replaced by MCV in developed countries, but mpsv polysaccharide vaccine is still the most common in China.

According to the data of China Academy of food and drug control, the total batch issuance of meningococcal vaccine in China in 2019 is 61.04 million, of which 41.45 million are mpsv2, accounting for 67.9%.

However, polysaccharide vaccine can not produce immune memory, and the immune duration is not good for infants under 2 years old. However, the conjugate vaccine can form immune memory after vaccination, and can produce immune response again. The immune duration is long, and the use is not restricted by age.

Zhang Wenze, vice president of Junlian capital medical investment, said in an interview with the times finance and Economics on July 24 that the combined vaccine will definitely replace the polysaccharide vaccine and become the mainstream of meningitis vaccine in the future.

According to the prediction of the burning knowledge report, the domestic meningococcal vaccine market is expected to increase significantly from 2.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 7.7 billion yuan in 2030. The growth is mainly due to the higher unit price of non immunization program meningococcal vaccines (mainly mcv2 and MCV4), which are more applicable to a wider population than polysaccharide vaccines, and the overall sales volume is larger.

In the next 5 to 10 years, Chinas market demand for mcv2 and MCV4 will increase significantly.

The competition is fierce and the road ahead is hard to predict

But in fact, the market competition that consino will face is very fierce.

At present, Zhifei biology, Watson biology and Luoyi biological products have been approved and listed in China. At the same time, mcv2 products of Wuhan Biological Products Institute, OULIN biology, Hualan biology, Chengdu Biological Products Research Institute, Chengda Tianhe Biological Products Co., Ltd. and mcv2 Hib joint seedlings of OULIN biology and Zhifei green bamboo are under research.

Although Kangxi Nuo is expected to win the first approved MCV4 product in China, there is a fierce comer in MCV4 market - MCV4 products of minhai biology, Zhifei biology, Lanzhou Institute of biological products and Watson biology have entered the clinical trial stage. It can be predicted that the market competition will be the same fierce in the future. Among the 15 products that are still under development, only the new crown vaccine Ad5 ncov, pneumococcal vaccine PBPV and tuberculosis enhanced vaccine ad5ag85a are global innovative varieties. Other products have competitive products, which have been approved and listed at home or abroad, forming a relatively mature market. At this stage, the main mode of vaccine innovation enterprises, including kangxinuo, is the domestic substitution mode of imported vaccines. The cost of completely innovative vaccine research and development is estimated in the billions of dollars, and it will take more than ten years to invest. Ordinary enterprises are hard to bear the huge cost, so they hope to realize domestic substitution first. Zhang Wenze said. Source: time finance editor: Guo Chenqi_ NBJ9931

Although Kangxi Nuo is expected to win the first approved MCV4 product in China, there is a fierce comer in MCV4 market - MCV4 products of minhai biology, Zhifei biology, Lanzhou Institute of biological products and Watson biology have entered the clinical trial stage. It can be predicted that the market competition will be the same fierce in the future.

Among the 15 products that are still under development, only the new crown vaccine Ad5 ncov, pneumococcal vaccine PBPV and tuberculosis enhanced vaccine ad5ag85a are global innovative varieties. Other products have competitive products, which have been approved and listed at home or abroad, forming a relatively mature market.

At this stage, the main mode of vaccine innovation enterprises, including kangxinuo, is the domestic substitution mode of imported vaccines. The cost of completely innovative vaccine research and development is estimated in the billions of dollars, and it will take more than ten years to invest. Ordinary enterprises are hard to bear the huge cost, so they hope to realize domestic substitution first. Zhang Wenze said.