The first week of Shenzhen New Deal: the growth rate of second-hand housing online signings nearly cut off!

 The first week of Shenzhen New Deal: the growth rate of second-hand housing online signings nearly cut off!

New deal to cool down

According to the new deal, hot property lottery should give priority to those who have no housing and have long personal income tax or social security service. This also means that many new customers are holding high-quality housing tickets, which greatly improves their boarding opportunities.

Many qualified buyers said that they are also ready to take a chance in the new market. After all, there are not many people with room tickets in their hands, and it is not impossible to buy a red disk on the Internet.

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, a total of 873 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen from July 13 to July 19, a month on month decrease of 8.0%. It seems that the decline is not too much because of the release of transactions accumulated before. Zheng shulun, managing director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan real estate Co., Ltd., said that there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the new housing market, and the transaction volume was expected to decline significantly in a short time.

People are no longer keen on new, second-hand housing is more cool, the intermediaries have no business. Real estate agent Xiao Zhao said, usually weekend can sign two or three single, now just ask more. He believes that second-hand housing in the next few months turnover will significantly decline, business will become more and more difficult to do.

For example, in Nanshan District, some owners of Nords sun garden reduced the listing price from 9.6 million yuan to 9.9 million yuan on the day of the new deal; the owners of apple orchard in Baoan District originally quoted a price of 7.6 million yuan, which was reduced to 7.39 million the next day.

In this atmosphere, the second-hand housing market transactions bleak, online signings show a cliff type decline. According to the data of Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association, the number of second-hand houses online signed in Shenzhen was 5143 sets in a week after the new deal was released (July 13-19), a sharp drop of 48.7% month on month.

Many industry insiders in Shenzhen believe that in the short term, the market supply-demand relationship has changed significantly, the expectation that house prices will rise has been reversed, and the property market has begun to enter the buyers market.

Not once and for all

Boots fell heavily on the ground, bringing a lot of turbulence to the market. Everyone is concerned, where is the future of Shenzhen property market? Will house prices continue to strengthen?

Li Yujia predicted that Shenzhen property market transactions in the second half of the year will significantly cool down, and house prices will also decline, especially in the first half of this year. The adjustment period of this policy is as short as one month, and the longest is eight months. The total transaction volume of Shenzhen property market will drop by 70% at most, and can only reach 20% at least.

However, he pointed out that Shenzhen property market this round of regulation will affect the property market more in the short term, and the long-term still depends on the basic market.

Stability is always the main tone of the property market. For Shenzhen, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly stressed that Shenzhen should not only regulate but also stabilize the property market, which will test the wisdom of Shenzhen. Regulation and control is a short-term move. If the property market in the future obviously goes down, it is not ruled out that the policy will move in the opposite direction.

However, no matter how strict and frequent regulation is, the relationship between supply and demand ultimately determines the trend of the property market. In order to stabilize the real estate market, the Shenzhen government this year has started to solve the problem of insufficient housing supply.

In the first half of 2020, Shenzhen transferred 13 residential land with an area of 494500 square meters, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year. Shenzhen plans to supply 293.2 hectares of residential land this year, nearly double the 150 hectares planned last year.

In order to solve the problem of land scarcity, Shenzhens old urban reform is also expected. As of July 19, 2020, 891 projects have been listed in the urban renewal plan, and 509 projects have been approved by the special planning of urban renewal.

This means that nail households can be collected individually by the government, and the efficiency of the old reform is expected to be greatly improved.

Ding Zuyu, President of E-House China, believes that the implementation effect of the follow-up policies needs to be further observed, but it must be immediate in the short term, which will have a greater impact on the market. It is not a bad thing for the future development of Shenzhen to pour some cold water on the virtual high house price in Shenzhen, and it may be more conducive to the future development of Shenzhen.

In addition, the government should further consider how to increase supply, guide reasonable market expectations, and make the overall market balanced and stable. The introduction of this policy does not mean that it will be done once and for all. In the future, the government still has a lot of things to cooperate with.

Deng Zhiwang, an industry insider in Shenzhen, believes that in the long run, Shenzhen still needs to solve the problem of insufficient supply, such as accelerating the construction of metropolitan area, easing demand and planning adjustment, and increasing the supply of residential land.

Source: Yang Zeyu, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF6036