After three years of settlement and social security, about 30% of house buyers have lost their qualification, and market visits and transactions have declined significantly. Whats more, the expectation of rising house prices has been reversed, the logic of property market operation has been changed, and many speculators have been blocked out by the new policy. Those who hold housing tickets have confidence. The real estate market has entered the buyers market, moving from fanatical to calm.
But the new deal will not let Shenzhen once and for all. Strict regulation and control can curb the expectation of rising house prices in the short term, but only by starting from the root causes and solving the problem of insufficient housing supply in Shenzhen, can stabilizing the real estate market be realized.
New deal to cool down
Wake up and have no qualification to buy a house, the biggest blow to the market from the new deal is that the number of people who buy houses suddenly decreases.
In the new housing market, Huaqiang City, phase IV of China Resources City, Shajing coastal city, and Zhonghai Huanyu times are all visiting or sweeping customers before the emergency inventory to see how many purchase places there are.
Wu Jing is a fried tenant, in order to hit the new, she added several purchase groups, and two friends at the same time pay attention to several online Red plates. The original goal of the plan was to go ocean. After the new deal came out, the two friends had no quota, and their down payment was not enough.
According to the new deal, hot property lottery should give priority to those who have no housing and have long personal income tax or social security service. This also means that many new customers are holding high-quality housing tickets, which greatly improves their boarding opportunities.
People who just need to buy a house can finally be proud. On the day of the new deal, a buyer in the discussion group of the fourth phase of China Resources City said: yesterday, I was dissuaded by runsi and I was afraid to run with me. Today, I suddenly feel that I have a good chance. There was a joy in the tone.
Many qualified buyers said that they are also ready to take a chance in the new market. After all, there are not many people with room tickets in their hands, and it is not impossible to buy a red disk on the Internet.
According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, a total of 873 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen from July 13 to July 19, a month on month decrease of 8.0%. It seems that the decline is not too much because of the release of transactions accumulated before. Zheng shulun, managing director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan real estate Co., Ltd., said that there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the new housing market, and the transaction volume was expected to decline significantly in a short time.
People are no longer keen on new, second-hand housing is more cool, the intermediaries have no business. Real estate agent Xiao Zhao said, usually weekend can sign two or three single, now just ask more. He believes that second-hand housing in the next few months turnover will significantly decline, business will become more and more difficult to do.
The owner of the second-hand house, which is full of bull spirit before, lowered his posture. Zhongyuan Real Estate Agency Xiao Zhang told reporters that before the new deal came into effect, after customers took a fancy to the house, many owners would temporarily counter price. It is common to see 200000 or 500000 yuan increase in price, as well as the collective price increase of community owners. But now, a lot of second-hand housing owners have voluntarily lowered the price of housing.
For example, in Nanshan District, some owners of Nords sun garden reduced the listing price from 9.6 million yuan to 9.9 million yuan on the day of the new deal; the owners of apple orchard in Baoan District originally quoted a price of 7.6 million yuan, which was reduced to 7.39 million the next day.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, points out that there will be a high price diving. For example, investors who bought houses with leverage in the early stage still have considerable floating profits on their books. They are pessimistic about the future market and want to take advantage of high prices to ship. Since last year, the average price of Shenzhens house price has increased by 10000 yuan. The price reduction of hundreds of thousands of millions, the surface of the loss is very big, in fact, squeeze water..
In this atmosphere, the second-hand housing market transactions bleak, online signings show a cliff type decline. According to the data of Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association, the number of second-hand houses online signed in Shenzhen was 5143 sets in a week after the new deal was released (July 13-19), a sharp drop of 48.7% month on month.
Many industry insiders in Shenzhen believe that in the short term, the market supply-demand relationship has changed significantly, the expectation that house prices will rise has been reversed, and the property market has begun to enter the buyers market.
Boots fell heavily on the ground, bringing a lot of turbulence to the market. Everyone is concerned, where is the future of Shenzhen property market? Will house prices continue to strengthen?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that the policy had a strong impact on investment demand, and it was expected that some investors would start to leave the market. If the policy is strictly implemented in terms of fees, house purchasing qualifications and credit loans, Shenzhen is expected to enter an adjustment cycle.
In the past, Shenzhens property market is ahead of Beijing and Shanghai, and the market will come to an end. It is expected that in the next six months, the investment proportion will plummet, and the house price will start a round of obvious downward adjustment, with a decrease of more than 5%.
Li Yujia predicted that Shenzhen property market transactions in the second half of the year will significantly cool down, and house prices will also decline, especially in the first half of this year. The adjustment period of this policy is as short as one month, and the longest is eight months. The total transaction volume of Shenzhen property market will drop by 70% at most, and can only reach 20% at least.
However, he pointed out that Shenzhen property market this round of regulation will affect the property market more in the short term, and the long-term still depends on the basic market.
Stability is always the main tone of the property market. For Shenzhen, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly stressed that Shenzhen should not only regulate but also stabilize the property market, which will test the wisdom of Shenzhen. Regulation and control is a short-term move. If the property market in the future obviously goes down, it is not ruled out that the policy will move in the opposite direction.
However, no matter how strict and frequent regulation is, the relationship between supply and demand ultimately determines the trend of the property market. In order to stabilize the real estate market, the Shenzhen government this year has started to solve the problem of insufficient housing supply.
In the first half of 2020, Shenzhen transferred 13 residential land with an area of 494500 square meters, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year. Shenzhen plans to supply 293.2 hectares of residential land this year, nearly double the 150 hectares planned last year.
In order to solve the problem of land scarcity, Shenzhens old urban reform is also expected. As of July 19, 2020, 891 projects have been listed in the urban renewal plan, and 509 projects have been approved by the special planning of urban renewal.
This means that nail households can be collected individually by the government, and the efficiency of the old reform is expected to be greatly improved.
Ding Zuyu, President of E-House China, believes that the implementation effect of the follow-up policies needs to be further observed, but it must be immediate in the short term, which will have a greater impact on the market. It is not a bad thing for the future development of Shenzhen to pour some cold water on the virtual high house price in Shenzhen, and it may be more conducive to the future development of Shenzhen. In addition, the government should further consider how to increase supply, guide reasonable market expectations, and make the overall market balanced and stable. The introduction of this policy does not mean that it will be done once and for all. In the future, the government still has a lot of things to cooperate with. Deng Zhiwang, an industry insider in Shenzhen, believes that in the long run, Shenzhen still needs to solve the problem of insufficient supply, such as accelerating the construction of metropolitan area, easing demand and planning adjustment, and increasing the supply of residential land. Source: responsible editor of 21st century economic report: Guo Chenqi_ NBJ9931
Ding Zuyu, President of E-House China, believes that the implementation effect of the follow-up policies needs to be further observed, but it must be immediate in the short term, which will have a greater impact on the market. It is not a bad thing for the future development of Shenzhen to pour some cold water on the virtual high house price in Shenzhen, and it may be more conducive to the future development of Shenzhen.
In addition, the government should further consider how to increase supply, guide reasonable market expectations, and make the overall market balanced and stable. The introduction of this policy does not mean that it will be done once and for all. In the future, the government still has a lot of things to cooperate with.
Deng Zhiwang, an industry insider in Shenzhen, believes that in the long run, Shenzhen still needs to solve the problem of insufficient supply, such as accelerating the construction of metropolitan area, easing demand and planning adjustment, and increasing the supply of residential land.