Expert: the United States has carefully calculated the choice of embassies and consulates

category:Global
 Expert: the United States has carefully calculated the choice of embassies and consulates


On the afternoon of July 23, U.S. time, U.S. Secretary of state pompeio delivered a speech at Nixons former residence, saying that the contact strategy with China had failed, and encouraged the free world to join hands to fight against Communist China.

Zheng Yongnian (photo source: Internet)

1. Xiake Island: Recently, we are very concerned about the tense diplomatic relations between China and the United States. The US side ordered the Chinese Consulate in Houston to be closed within 72 hours without warning. This is a very serious political provocation. Today, the Chinese side also informed the United States to close its Consulate General in Chengdu and counterbalance with each other. Some people say that this is an unprecedented grim situation in the history of Sino US diplomacy in more than 40 years. What do you think?

Zheng Yongnian: looking at Sino US relations now, we should look beyond the past 40 years and take a longer dimension. From a long historical perspective, we would not be surprised by these events, and we would expect to see more serious events in the future.

As far as Sino US relations are concerned, in the 30 years since the 1980s and 1990s, the United States has on the one hand accepted China, on the other hand, it has Hope that China will become the country that the United States hopes for. Now the United States has given up the idea, because China can not become the country the United States wants. This is very, very important.

Last time we talked about identity politics in the United States. You see, all the terms used by the US side are Communist Party of China, not China. From the Bush administration to Obama, the so-called hardliners, anti China activists and Neo conservatives have never stopped suppressing China, but the formal crackdown is still within the so-called contact framework of the United States.

But last year, the United States issued a national strategy report, declaring that China is the number one competitor and enemy. Its not the same. When you are the third and the fourth, when you are poor and when you are the number one competitor, the nature of Sino US relations is totally different.

The relationship in the past 40 years has also been phased, but it is only a relatively long stage, and now it has entered a new stage. Its easier to understand. At that time, how did the British Empire fight against those countries, whether they were European or not, that thought they were harming the interests of the Empire? How did the United States target the Soviet Union? From George Kennans 8000 word telegram to the beginning of the cold war, there was not much time. Once the United States has a new judgment on China, its China policy will inevitably undergo qualitative changes.

Therefore, from the perspective of the general trend, you may not know what means the United States will use to suppress China, but you know it will. Therefore, we should not underestimate the determination of the United States and the west to target and suppress China. When you were not strong, they didnt take you seriously. Now they do.

2. Xiake Island: thats right. Pompeio said when he went to Europe, he made China a top priority agenda. Pompeio delivered a speech at Nixons former residence yesterday, declaring that the policy of engagement with China has failed, and put forward the strategy of no trust and verification (in those years, it was trust but verification to the Soviet Union), and at the same time, he encouraged the free world to join hands to fight against Communist China. If not for the fact that this administration has reached the end of its term of office, many people would think that this is the new cold war declaration.

Zheng Yongnian: This is what we said last time. We tried to engage in identity politics defined by ideology in the world, divide Chinas internal relations, and divide Chinas relations with the world, and form an American alliance. The situation in this respect is far more severe than the US Soviet relations during the cold war. In the view of the United States, the Soviet Union and the West belong to the same white civilization, while China belongs to different civilizations.

But this time, he pointed more clearly and directly to the Communist Party of China and called on the Chinese people to overthrow the Communist Party. This is obviously the wrong person and does not understand China at all. Behind him are some people who are extremely hostile to the Communist Party of China. As we said last time, it is very irrational to base a countrys diplomatic interests on the personal hatred of some people. It is impossible to make a practical foreign policy beneficial to the United States.

Chinese Consulate General in Houston

Zheng Yongnian: This is calculated carefully. Although it is a diplomatic crisis, the crisis is quantifiable and controllable, and the US side believes that it can achieve its goal.

In the view of the U.S. government, closing a Chinese consulate is nothing more than tit for tat. The consequences can be predicted. But what about the electoral effect? Can show their tough attitude towards China, in the basic plate plus points. You see what China China as like as two peas in the US, and what China has done in the past is not the same as foreign trade, but it is just like the rhetoric of trade war.

In contrast, the South China Sea issue is much more uncontrollable. The US Defense Secretary recently said that he is willing to go to China to talk about the South China Sea issue. Why? It is because there are too many uncontrollable factors in the South China Sea that it is easy to develop into a firefight or even a local war, which puts great pressure on the United States.

There are several forms of relations between countries, including politics, diplomacy and war. Politics is the most important. Diplomacy is the continuation of politics, and war is another form of politics. Now there is no political trust. In terms of diplomacy, the United States has closed its Consulate without a word or discussion before. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, there has been basically no negotiation and contact. Will that lead to the third way? Be very careful. No one can rule out this possibility.

In addition to the consulate, there are many wrong things against foreign students and scholars. In the eyes of the United States, these are small things. How did he target Japan during World War II? How was it directed against the Soviet Union during the cold war? How many scientists died during the cold war? Its cruel, but history is. Therefore, we should not only look at the Sino US relations from the perspective of 40 years, but also from the perspective of great power politics and power competition among great powers.

4. Xiake Island: you talked about crisis management last time. From now on to January next year, it may be a period of turbulent and unpredictable major events, and there may be more friction. How to do crisis management in this period of time?

Zheng Yongnian: distinguish controllable and uncontrollable factors. It is impossible for China not to respond to the consulates and its influence can be controlled. At the same time, it should avoid more direct confrontation and external uncontrollable factors. During the cold war, there was no direct confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union except for the confrontation of nuclear weapons. The expulsion of diplomats and scientists is controllable. Agent war is not direct confrontation. When it comes to the internal relations between the two countries, it is a controllable counterattack.

If Hong Kong in the United States under the one country, two systems is over, what about Taiwan? Will it take more risks? Mr. Fu Gaoyi recently said that it is easy not to say that the United States will not send troops for Taiwan. Once there is a conflict between the two countries, even if it is a local war, it will fall into the logic of war, which is different from the logic of politics and diplomacy.

The U.S. Defense Secretary said that he wanted to talk to China about the South China Sea. It was not a compromise, it was about crisis management. If there is a direct conflict during this period, it will not be good for the election. But this stance kills two birds with one stone: it not only manages the crisis, but also mobilizes other countries, such as Australia, to put pressure on China.

CCTV live broadcast of US Consulate General in Chengdu

5. Xiake Island: people have seen the fragility of the so-called international laws and regulations in this consular incident. They also see that the United States uses any excuse, even if it is not related to diplomacy at all. There are also some people with rhythm on the Internet, saying that the relevant decision was made by the United States because China asked US diplomats to do nucleic acid testing and prevent them from returning home. What do you think?

Zheng Yongnian: they are all excuses. All wars start with little things or even excuses. These are not essential things.

The United States regards itself as the embodiment of international law. It has never properly abided by international law, but only asked other countries to abide by it. Therefore, in practice, international law becomes the international law of the weak. The United States has been arguing about the South China Sea arbitration, but it has not acceded to the Hague Conventions, including the UN Convention on the sea.

So why are you talking about it? It is to moralize and justice ourselves and to shape our opponents into demons. Youre the devil. Ill do everything right. Not only in the South China Sea and in trade, the United States is stigmatizing and demonizing China at all levels.

For example, intellectual property, which is also part of identity politics, is to shape China into a thief image. Actually? Think about the past 40 years, we sacrificed cheap labor, land costs, environmental costs and other costs in exchange for rapid development, how can we become thieves? Normal technology diffusion, how is stealing?

Xiake Island: Ren Zhengfei has said before that you dont have 5g technology. Where can I steal it? In 2018, the United States held a trade hearing, in response to the 301 investigation, dozens of Chinese and American enterprises were invited. At the meeting, American enterprises were always asked whether you were forced to transfer technology and stolen intellectual property rights in China. As a result, several American enterprises honestly replied that they did not.

Zheng Yongnian: Yes, both economically and technically, we should not only scold, but also pay attention to collecting evidence. Didnt the United States always say that the virus originated in China? Later, the scientific community found that the virus appeared in some countries earlier than in China. As a result, the United States has been saying that it has become the climate. Nowadays, universities and companies in the United States seem to say that Chinese are thieves, which is very bad and unfair. But the so-called identity politics is to say no as have in order to work.

6. Xiake Island: now we are very worried about whether the situation will be tense again in the next few months. How do you predict?

Zheng Yongnian: no matter what the election result is, Sino US relations will enter another pattern. Dont fantasize, dont nostalgia, just look forward.

Last time we talked about avoiding hot war and suppressing the cold war, which does not depend on Chinas unilateral. If the United States wants to intensify the tension, China will respond, but when responding, it should consider the degree of risk control and its own long-term interests. If the United States and the West talked about containing China only on paper in the past, now it is obviously implemented in action. We should make full ideological preparations for this.

In the future, we should avoid world polarization. If there is a polarization between China and the west, this is very unfavorable. It is still necessary to promote multipolarization and find more partners in multipolarization.

This requires a long-term strategy. In the past few decades, we used to say period of strategic opportunity. Now it is different rules of the game and different framework of thinking. When you were poor, others despised you, sympathized with you, and even helped you. Now that you are so big that you cant hide, what should we do if the United States takes you as the number one enemy? You have to be strong.

The worse the situation is, the less useful the mood is. The contest between great powers is a contest of calm rationality, not of emotion. Emotion can not hurt the United States, how to deal with the United States with reason is the most important. Our country is big enough and has enough capacity. If we use it well and respond well, I think we can avoid hot war and moderate cold war.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }Source of this article: Lin Qihui, editor in charge of overseas website_ NB13068