Net red Musk openly calls for nickel nonferrous metals to rise in the night

category:Finance
 Net red Musk openly calls for nickel nonferrous metals to rise in the night


On July 23rd, the novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed 15 million cases and the cumulative death rate was nearly 620 thousand. The three novel coronavirus pneumonia cases in the world are the United States, Brazil and India.

As of the end of the morning, the US S & P 500 index fell 1.23%; Europes stoxx50 index rose 0.09%; the US dollar index fell 0.20%; WTI crude oil fell 1.98%; Brent crude oil fell 1.95%; Luntong copper rose 0.45%; gold rose 0.73%. US soybean increased by 0.56%, soybean meal by 1.32%, soybean oil by 0.46%, sugar by 1.10%, cotton by 1.17%, CRB by 0.26% and BDI by 5.77%. Offshore RMB CNH rose 0.10%; Deutsche Bank x-trackers harvest Shanghai Shenzhen 300 China A-share ETF rose 0.09%.

Net red Musk named nickel, overnight non-ferrous metal futures rose collectively

Tesla CEO Elon Musk called out to suppliers on July 23 during the second quarter earnings call: if youre mining nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will give you a big, long-term contract. Affected by this news, the domestic futures market night non-ferrous metal plate collective rise, Shanghai nickel opened 1.6%, closed up 3%.

Analysts believe that although it may take several years for the supply to fall short of demand, the existing businesses of some miners are difficult to make profits, so nickel prices may need to rise sharply to stimulate future supply.

Colin Hamilton, managing director of commodity research at BMO capital markets, said nickel prices dont need too many factors to get excited on their own. I was rather bearish on nickel, but I do think a real raw material constraint is starting to run through the chain. He said.

By the end of the morning, LME nickel rose 4.2% to $13689 a ton, the third rise in four days, the biggest since August 30 last year.

Nickel is the key component of battery cathode for electric vehicle, and its price is relatively low. Musks words, let the market for high nickel battery attention again. However, market participants believe that the news has limited impact on the disk. In the long run, although nickel demand continues to repair, there is little room for nickel prices to continue to rise in the second half of the year. Tu Licheng, nonferrous analyst of Jinrui futures, believes that on the one hand, the demand loss caused by the epidemic situation is not much different from that of other basic metals. However, with the repair of domestic real estate and the concentrated release of consumption brought by project acceleration, stimulating the V-shaped reversal of demand, consumption will continue to recover in the second half of the year, but the domestic real estate policy is mainly stable, or it is difficult to exceed the expected performance, The social inventory of stainless steel continued to decline in the second quarter, but the current overseas epidemic situation is still not improved, the domestic market has entered the consumption off-season, and the terminal consumption has also slowed down after the release in the early stage. However, the output of domestic stainless steel row is high, which is equal to that of the same period last year, and the market accumulation is expected to increase. It is estimated that the growth rate of consumption in the second quarter will be about 4%, and the growth rate of consumption in the whole year will drop slightly. At the same time, the impact of overseas epidemic is mainly concentrated in the second quarter, with consumption growth rate of - 9% in the first half of the year. There is a risk of a second outbreak in the second half of the year. Consumption growth is difficult to reverse and is expected to maintain negative growth.

From the supply side, the NPI decreases internally and increases externally, and the increment still comes from Indonesia. According to Tu Licheng, 35 units are planned for the second phase of Indonesias Delong, and 15 sets have been completed. Five sets of ignition have been ignited in the first half of the year. In addition, 15 units in phase I will be put into production. It is expected that new furnaces will be put into operation in the third quarter, and all 15 units in phase II will be put into operation by the end of the year. At the end of last year, 28 furnaces were in production in morowali, Castle Peak, Indonesia. As of June, 36 furnaces were in production. Four sets (Ehrman) have been put into operation in Indonesias Qingshan weidabei Industrial Park, four sets of Zhenshi will be put into operation from June to July, four sets from shengtun Huayou are planned to be put into operation from July to August, and 24 sets are planned to be put into operation in weidabei Industrial Park, and the production capacity is expected to reach 12 units this year. According to the calculation of the current production and production progress, the incremental value of ferronickel in Indonesia this year has been revised upward by 210000 tons of metal.

U.S. stocks closed lower, the NASDAQ fell more than 2%

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell collectively, with the Dow down more than 350 points, while technology stocks suffered heavy losses. Apple and Microsoft both fell more than 4%, while Tesla fell nearly 5%. As of now, the Dow is down 353.51 points, or 1.31%, the NASDAQ is down 2.29%, and the S & P 500 index is down 1.23%.

At a White House briefing, trump called on Congress to pass $105 billion for school construction as part of the next epidemic relief bill. He said the money would be used to support small classes, set up teaching assistants, control social distance and wear masks. But if the school is not open, the money should follow the students so that parents and family can make their own decisions.

Trump said it was important to reopen schools so that parents could return to work and that families should make the most appropriate decision, adding that reopening schools was not political.

I hope that local governments will give priority to the overall health and well-being of students and make the right decisions for children, parents and teachers, rather than making political decisions. It has nothing to do with politics.

US Treasury Secretary mnuchin: new unemployment benefits may be based on 70% salary

U.S. Treasury Secretary manuchin said on July 23 that the trump administration will take the 70% wage replacement rate as the basis for unemployment protection, which will become the basis for negotiations between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. At present, the specific number of benefits has not been confirmed, after a source said that the Republican Party is considering reducing unemployment benefits to $100, but has not reached a final decision.

In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary nuqin said that the size of the relief bill will be about $1 trillion, and further assistance is not ruled out.

On July 23, the ninth auction of temporary storage corn was undoubtedly the most dazzling Star in the domestic grain and oil futures spot market. The higher the auction price, the more important the discussion between investors and industry insiders. At the same time, boosted by the rising auction price of temporary storage corn, the futures price of Dalian corn rose greatly, and the markets bullish enthusiasm was strengthened again. The main contract period price of that day rose by 53 yuan / ton at the end of the day, reaching a new high since mid September 2015.

According to the ninth auction of corn in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning and other provinces announced by the national grain trading center, the highest premium per ton reached 600 yuan, which is really surprising. In recent years, more than 40 million tons of policy oriented corn has been auctioned, and has entered or is entering the market. It is really a bit crazy for the ninth auction of temporary storage corn to have a premium of 600 yuan.

On July 23, the ninth auction of Lincang corn surprised the market, with the transaction price of 2290 yuan / ton at a premium of 550 yuan. It is understood that the highest premium on that day appeared in the first-class corn of Bayannaoer warehouse Co., Ltd., the central reserve grain of southern Mongolia. The trading volume was 3534 tons, and the initial quotation was 1780 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was 2380 yuan / ton, with a premium of 600 yuan / ton.

Analysts believe that the key factor of corn price rise is psychology, and supply is not enough.

From April to May this year, the price of high-quality and strong gluten wheat in China once soared. Among them, the highest purchase price of Xinmai 26 in some areas of Shandong and Hebei reached 2900 yuan / ton. At that time, the domestic price of common wheat and sub high-quality wheat 979 also went up all the way. For example, the ex warehouse price of 979 wheat in Xiping County of Henan Province reached 2640 yuan / ton. Since the new wheat was listed in June 2020, due to the overall decline of domestic wheat prices, the state has launched the wheat lowest price purchase plan. Zhang Xiaojuan, a Henan wheat and corn trader, told the futures daily that the current situation of the corn market is similar to that of the wheat market from April to May this year. When the market supply is normal, it is due to the great fluctuation in the market psychology that the price has risen sharply.

Zhang Xiaojuan said that since April this year, driven by the rising prices of wheat and other grains, stimulated by the increase in the number of live pigs and the rise in pork prices, as well as the postponement of auction time of temporary storage corn this year, especially due to the large decline in the total inventory of temporary storage corn, the domestic corn market has produced optimism such as insufficient inventory, insufficient production and demand, strong demand and rising prices Emotions. After entering may, the market again appeared hoarding and hoarding, rush purchase and replenishment. After the auction of temporary storage corn started this year, the continued high transaction rate and high premium situation ignited the enthusiasm of the market. However, at present, Chinas corn market supply is very normal, and even the slightly tight supply pattern in the early stage has been constantly improved. For example, the information about selling corn in the wechat group of several corn traders she works in is obviously increased.

According to the reporter of futures daily, about 36 million tons of supply will be provided to the market after the nine auctions of temporary storage corn. In addition to the bidding sales of one-time reserved corn in all parts of the country and the delivery of other policy stocks of corn, the total amount is estimated to be about 45 million tons, which can completely make up for the supply and demand gap predicted by the domestic corn market in the current year. At the same time, the news of the increase in the number of imported corn, sorghum, barley, etc., coupled with the increasing substitution advantages of wheat, rice, wheat bran and other places, the market estimates that the price of corn has been crazy to the end.

New supply of corn and its substitutes is on the way

First, the delivery of all kinds of policy oriented corn was accelerated. At present, in addition to the 4 million tons of temporary storage corn sold by fixed auction every week, relevant institutions have also increased the efforts of various policy oriented corn to enter the market. The reporter found that entrusted by the Henan Branch, Inner Mongolia Branch, Yunnan branch, Xian Branch, Beijing Branch, Guangxi branch and Chengdu Branch, the e-commerce platform of CSGC will organize special corn auction sales on July 24 and July 28. The annual output of corn will be 59000 tons in 2017 and 2018 respectively, with the production areas of Hebei, Henan and Shanxi In the west, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, the target storage is distributed in Anyang, Hebi, Jiaozuo, Luohe, Shangqiu, Pingdingshan, Xinxiang, Xuchang, Zhengzhou and Zhumadian of Henan Province; in 2016, the annual output of corn is 68000 tons, which is produced in Inner Mongolia, and the target storage is distributed in Tongliao, Chifeng and Ordos; in 2017, the annual output of corn is 9132 tons, and the producing areas are Yunnan, Xinjiang and Jilin In 2016 and 2017, 33382 tons of corn were produced in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin and Shanxi; Weinan, Pucheng, Yulin, Yanan and Xianyang were stored in Weinan, Pucheng, Yulin, Yanan and Xianyang; in 2016, the annual output of corn was 10300 tons, with Jilin and Heilongjiang producing areas, and the target storage was distributed in Zhangjiakou, the central grain reserve It is directly under the jurisdiction of the warehouse Co., Ltd.; in 2017, the annual output of corn is 1224 tons, and the production area is Inner Mongolia, and the target storage is distributed in Hezhou City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; in 2016, the annual output of corn is 4061 tons, with the production area of Heilongjiang Province, and the target storage is distributed in Xichang City, Sichuan Province.

Second, imports of corn and corn substitutes increased. According to the reporter of futures daily, in June this year, Chinas total import of sorghum was 680000 tons, a three-year high, an increase of 410000 tons compared with 270000 tons last month. In June, the total import of barley was 500000 tons, up 117.39% year on year. The total amount of corn imported in June was 880000 tons, an increase of 240000 tons compared with 640000 tons last month.

In addition, it is understood that the current domestic minimum purchase price of rice and wheat is huge. In the face of severe floods in the south, some of the rice stored for a long time are in urgent need of delivery, and they can completely replace a large number of corn as feed raw materials with a larger price advantage. It is worth mentioning that market participants believe that the probability of temporary storage corn eventually losing auction also exists. It has taken less than two months for the auction of state-owned reserve soybeans from being snapped up to yesterdays auction. At a time when the growth of corn in the new season is very good, and there is a high probability that the yield will be greatly increased by sufficient rain, the temporary storage corn may not always be regarded as a treasure in the future. Laohu, a corn trader in Shaanxi Province, told reporters that in fact, the transaction rate of policy oriented corn auction sales in some regions has begun to decline. For example, the transaction rate of 7394 tons of corn sold by Lanzhou Branch of CSSC on July 23 was 73%, and that of 5604 tons of disposable reserved corn sold by CSSC Chengdu Branch on July 22 was only 28%. Source: futures daily editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368

In addition, it is understood that the current domestic minimum purchase price of rice and wheat is huge. In the face of severe floods in the south, some of the rice stored for a long time are in urgent need of delivery, and they can completely replace a large number of corn as feed raw materials with a larger price advantage.

It is worth mentioning that market participants believe that the probability of temporary storage corn eventually losing auction also exists. It has taken less than two months for the auction of state-owned reserve soybeans from being snapped up to yesterdays auction. At a time when the growth of corn in the new season is very good, and there is a high probability that the yield will be greatly increased by sufficient rain, the temporary storage corn may not always be regarded as a treasure in the future. Laohu, a corn trader in Shaanxi Province, told reporters that in fact, the transaction rate of policy oriented corn auction sales in some regions has begun to decline. For example, the transaction rate of 7394 tons of corn sold by Lanzhou Branch of CSSC on July 23 was 73%, and that of 5604 tons of disposable reserved corn sold by CSSC Chengdu Branch on July 22 was only 28%.