Dont rush to refuel! The agency expects that the price adjustment rate of this round of refined oil will run aground

category:Finance
 Dont rush to refuel! The agency expects that the price adjustment rate of this round of refined oil will run aground


On the face of the news, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on the 22nd that US crude oil and distillate oil stocks increased unexpectedly last week, and fuel consumption was hit by the surge of new crown infections, which led to a decline in us fuel demand.

However, leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union reached an agreement on a fiscal stimulus plan to combat the impact of the new epidemic and revive the European economy in the early morning of the 21st, agreeing to invest 750 billion euro to aid the affected Member States. At the same time, a number of enterprises spread positive data on early vaccine trials, and the agency believes that the above news gives the crude oil market confidence support.

At the beginning of this pricing cycle, the crude oil market also presents a state of intertwined multi space factors. OPEC announced on July 15 that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries agreed to reduce production to 7.7 million barrels per day from August. However, Saudi Arabias energy minister, Abdel Aziz bin Salman, also said that the actual oil production reduction in August will exceed 7.7 million barrels a day due to compensation from countries that have not completed the production reduction quota in the first three months.

Wang Xueqin, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information, said that during the pricing period, there was no clear direction guidance on the news of the crude oil market, so the crude oil price showed a trend of high volatility.

Light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $0.02, or 0.05%, to $41.90 a barrel as of the early morning of Beijing time, market data showed. London Brent crude for September delivery fell $0.03, or 0.07%, to $44.29 a barrel.

According to the principle of one adjustment in ten working days, a new round of domestic oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on July 24. According to Jin Lianchuangs calculation, as of the ninth working day on July 23, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 43.21 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of 1.42%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel oil should be increased by 40 yuan / ton. Jinlianchuangs subscription number issued a paper on the 22nd, saying that the international oil price may maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the near future, and the retail price of refined oil in this round is expected to rise for three consecutive times.

However, analyst Wang Xueqin said on the 23rd that the change rate of crude oil in this pricing cycle has always been at a positive low level, and the corresponding increase in retail price limit of refined oil has never exceeded 50 yuan / ton. Therefore, the probability of domestic product oil retail price limit grounding at 24:00 on July 24 is relatively high.

Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong information, also told Zhongxin Jingwei clients on the 23rd that the comprehensive change rate of crude oil as of July 22 was 1.60%, with an increase of 40 yuan / ton. At present, it is the ninth working day of the price adjustment cycle. It is difficult to adjust the price by more than 50 yuan / ton. The grounding of this ship is a high probability event.

In addition, Zhongyu information said on the 23rd that, as of the 9th working day of the pricing period of the current round of refined oil, the estimated crude oil change rate was 2.38%, with an estimated value of 42.745 US dollars / barrel, corresponding to an increase of 39 yuan / ton. It is temporarily estimated that the zero price limit of refined oil will not be adjusted at 24:00 on July 24.

According to the statistics of China New Zealand Jingwei client, since this year, domestic refined oil prices have experienced 13 adjustments, including 8 grounding, 3 downward adjustments and 2 upward adjustments. Gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 1630 yuan / ton and 1570 yuan / ton respectively. Among them, the six rounds of adjustment from March 31 to June 11 were stranded because the crude oil price in the international market was lower than US $40 / barrel. If the current round of oil product price adjustment is stranded, the domestic oil product price adjustment in 2020 will present a pattern of two rises, three falls and nine grounding.

The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 7, 2020. Li Yan believes that the negative factors in the international crude oil market have begun to strengthen in the near future, and it is expected that the next round of price adjustment of refined oil will be more likely to be lowered. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)