Market participants pointed out that the strength of public funds to continue to launch new funds above 3300 may come from cheap Hong Kong stocks. Since this year, new equity funds have raised 770 billion yuan, most of which are not pure A-share funds. A considerable proportion of new funds are allowed to invest in Hong Kong stocks, with a proportion of no more than 50% of their stock positions. This has become the main source of southward funds, which is allocated by some star fund managers According to the calculation of the proportion of Hong Kong stocks accounting for about 35% of the fund assets, it is roughly estimated that about 200 billion funds can be invested in Hong Kong stocks since this year.
According to the stock holding data at the end of June, a number of star fund managers shifted their heavy positions from a shares to Hong Kong stocks, and some fund managers increased their holdings of Hong Kong stocks by more than 15 points. Some institutions believe that the structure of the Hong Kong market is undergoing positive changes, and the number of growth investment targets is increasing. On the whole, compared with the A-share market, the price advantage of Hong Kong shares is still there.
Will the new fund turn southward and give priority to Hong Kong stocks?
Chinese reporters of securities companies have noticed that as the A-share market index continues to rise, fund managers core stock positions have generally begun to bias towards Hong Kong stocks.
This explains the question of what to buy or how to build a position in a series of hot new fund products issued above 3300?
A fund manager in South China told Chinas securities dealers that the new fund set up near 3300 will probably give priority to buying Hong Kong stock companies with higher cost performance. He stressed that many of the new funds include Hong Kong stock positions, not just A-shares, so 3300 wont worry high-level funds.
Since most of the new fund products issued this year have designed the positions of Hong Kong stock investment, when the new fund products issue record, it also means that the scale of southward funds continues to surge. Wind statistics show that since this year, the scale of equity fund raising has exceeded 770 billion yuan, exceeding 769.1 billion yuan in 2015, the highest in the same period in history.
Chinese reporters from securities companies have noted that among the 770 billion equity funds mentioned above, a considerable proportion of fund products are allowed to invest in Hong Kong stocks, up to 50% of the stock positions
Both the harvest vision select fund, which sold out on July 20, and Penghua ingenuity select fund, which attracted 130 billion subscription funds, all include positions in a shares and Hong Kong stocks. Taking harvest vision select fund as an example, its stock assets account for 60% - 95% of the fund assets, and the proportion of stocks invested in the Hong Kong stock pass accounts for 0-50% of the stock assets.
Penghua ingenuity fund, which has raised 26.6 billion yuan, is also a fund of A-shares and Hong Kong shares. According to the fund prospectus, Penghua carefully selected the stock assets of mixed funds, accounting for 60% - 95% of the fund assets. Among them, the proportion of stocks invested in the Hong Kong stock exchange standard does not exceed 50%.
With the A-share index standing at 3300 points and the huge increase accumulated in a short period of time, the funds set up near 3300 points, in the view of some market participants, may choose to enter the Hong Kong stock market during the warehouse building period, and these funds may become the main force of southward funds. According to wind data, as of July 22, the total net inflow of southbound funds was HK $3.383 billion, including HK $658 million in Shanghai Stock Exchange and HK $2.725 billion in Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In addition, Tencent holdings, meituan review and other leading companies in Hong Kong stocks have been net bought by southward funds for three consecutive days.
Southward funds may be new funds in the building period. When these new funds were established, the A-share index was already above 3000 points. A private equity fund manager in Shenzhen commented that the funds short of the fast bull market of a shares and the funds established relatively late may choose the Hong Kong stock companies with higher cost performance, which is a more intelligent strategy for building positions.
The low price of Hong Kong stock market not only facilitates the establishment of new fund positions above 3000 points. At the same time, it has indeed become the preferred allocation direction of many star fund managers in the second quarter, such as Liu Yanchun, Zhang Kun and Shi Bo.
The positions of these fund managers in the second quarter all highlight Hong Kong stock companies, which is different from the traditional impression that mainland fund managers are equal to A-share fund managers.
At the end of the first quarter of this year, among the top 10 stocks in the fund managed by Liu Yanchun, only 3 stocks were Hong Kong stocks, namely meituan review, Yaoming biology and Tencent holdings, with a total position proportion of 15.38%.
The above information means that during the second quarter of this year, Liu Yanchun reduced his position in heavy stocks from a shares and increased his positions in Hong Kong stocks, adding more than 15 points in total.
Star fund manager Zhang Kuns strategy is similar, focusing more on the balance of a shares and Hong Kong stocks. Chinas securities companies have noticed that by the end of June 2020, five of the top ten stocks of the e fund blue chip fund managed by Zhang Kun were listed companies in Hong Kong stock market, with a total position proportion of 36.65%. Moreover, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has become the largest heavy position stock of the fund managed by Zhang Kun, while Tencent has become the second largest heavy position stock, which shows that Zhang Kun attaches great importance to Hong Kong stocks Look.
According to the information disclosed by China Southern Ruihe fund, the market value of Hong Kong stocks invested by the fund through the Shenzhen Hong Kong stock exchange trading mechanism at the end of March 2020 is RMB 156 million, accounting for 10.94% of the net asset value of the fund. After a few months, as of the end of June 2020, the market value of Hong Kong stocks invested by China Southern Ruihe fund through the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect trading mechanism was 104 million yuan, accounting for 5.93% of the net asset value of the fund; the market value of Hong Kong stocks invested through the Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect trading mechanism was RMB 209 million yuan, accounting for 11.91% of the net asset value of the fund.
It is worth mentioning that if the Hong Kong stock positions of star fund managers generally account for more than 30% of the net asset value of the fund, it is roughly estimated that the scale of equity funds since this year has exceeded 770 billion, and the funds invested in Hong Kong stocks in the above-mentioned new funds can reach 200 billion.
Hong Kong stock valuation advantage is the main temptation
Cheap is the absolute principle, which is still the main factor that Hong Kong stock market gains the attention of fund managers.
As early as the end of March this year, Chen Guangming stressed the need to pay attention to the valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks and stressed that Hong Kong stocks have good investment opportunities. According to the second quarter report disclosed by Ruiyuan balanced value fund, the fund does allocate a large proportion of Hong Kong stocks.
Star fund manager GUI Kai also stressed in a recent media interview that he is optimistic about investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market in the future. Related to this, the new fund managed by Guikai started to issue on July 20, when the A-share index was at 3300.
Guikai stressed that, on the one hand, as an offshore market, Hong Kong has always had valuation discounts in the past. In recent years, the number of funds going south has been increasing. Most of the newly issued public funds can invest in Hong Kong stocks, and institutions will maintain the trend of investing in Hong Kong stocks in the future. On the other hand, Hong Kong shares have advantages in valuation. With the return of China capital stocks, Hong Kong stocks will become the main market for investment in China concept stocks, especially technology stocks.
According to a report of Guojin securities, after the rebound of US stocks, the performance price ratio has fallen down, and the global liquidity is still in a large easing cycle, prompting the return of funds to Hong Kong stocks with valuation advantages and stable performance. Secondly, as more and more emerging industry companies, led by meituan and kangsinobio, choose to list in Hong Kong, the structure of the Hong Kong market is undergoing positive changes. The increase in the number of growth investment targets is expected to enhance the markets medium and long-term activity.
According to the report, the current valuation of Hong Kong shares is in the bottom range. During the period from the end of May 2005 to the end of May this year, the average PE (TTM) of Hang Seng index was 12.0 times, the mean u00b1 double standard deviation was 15.2 times and 8.8 times. At present, PE is 9.4 times, slightly higher than 1 times of standard deviation downward, which is in the historical quantile of 21.5%. In terms of Pb, the period average is 1.6 times, and Pb mean u00b1 1 times standard deviation is 2.2 times and 1.1 times respectively. At present, Pb is around 0.9 times, below 1 times standard deviation and historical The quantile is at a very low level of 0.2%. From the perspective of mean regression, there is limited space for the current Hong Kong stock valuation to continue downward, while the upward elasticity of valuation is relatively large, and it has strong allocation value in the medium and long term.
In addition, in terms of premium rate, after a fall in 2018, ah share premium index has rebounded again since 2019, showing a volatile trend since this year. At present, the premium index of Hang Seng Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen Stock Exchange has risen to around 127 points. On the whole, compared with the A-share market, the price advantage of Hong Kong shares is still there.
According to the latest data, from April 1 to July 22, the stocks with the largest number of additional positions were Tencent holdings, China Construction Bank, Xiaomi group-w, Weigao shares, China flying crane, Pingan good doctor, China Resources beer, Hong Kong stock exchange, meituan review-w and Anta sports. Based on the average transaction price during the period, southbound capital increased the positions of Tencent holdings, China Construction Bank and Xiaomi group-w The fund exceeded 10 billion yuan.
Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368