Chinese aunt to silver! Eight institutions look forward to asset allocation

category:Finance
 Chinese aunt to silver! Eight institutions look forward to asset allocation


But this time, the older sisters (Chinese aunts) did not continue to invest in gold, but turned to silver.

On July 23, gold rose rapidly in the plate, conquered the key 1880 pass, getting closer to the historical high.

Jindian raised prices seven times in July

Affected by the continuous rise in international gold prices, the prices of gold ornaments in gold shops have also increased repeatedly, and have now risen to a historical high.

In addition, according to the daily economic news report, the sales of gold jewelry have increased rather than decreased due to the recent rise in gold prices. On the one hand, it is the driving effect of consumption recovery after the epidemic situation is degraded. On the other hand, the psychology of buy up but not buy down makes consumers more interested in bracelets, rings, pendants and other types of goods. Among them, antique gold and 3D hard gold with more exquisite craftsmanship are especially popular It is sought after by consumers.

Yu Guiying, general manager of Beijing Sun gold store, said that in addition to the recovery of gold jewelry consumption, as the gold price continued to rise, investment gold bars also began to sell well in the near future. After a sharp fall in international gold prices in mid March, gold prices rebounded by nearly 20% in the following three months. Moreover, at present, the gold price has continued to rise momentum, thus driving the enthusiasm of investors. The sales data of Guohua shopping malls also show that the sales volume of gold investment products has increased significantly recently. Many consumers are optimistic about the growth space of gold in the later stage, and now they choose to buy. It is expected that the gold price will challenge a new high from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.

Silver is more dazzling

Silver has always been the heart of Wall Street tycoons. The price of silver has risen by more than 27% this year, most of which have been recorded in the past three days. On the 21st and 22nd, silver has risen by 7% and 8% respectively, which is more eye-catching than gold. Silver is known as the gold of the poor, and its volatility is often higher than that of gold, and the volatility of silver mining stocks is also higher than that of gold stocks.

However, silver prices adjusted on Thursday. COMEX silver futures closed 1.64% lower at $22.765/oz.

Buddhist silver counter attack

On the one hand, it was forced out by the big brother of gold under the high ratio of gold and silver; on the other hand, the fear of shrinking silver supply from the fundamentals also boosted the current round of rise.

Zhao Xiaojun, precious metal analyst of CUHK futures, said that the recent rise of silver was stronger than that of gold. On the one hand, the gold price was at the key node of historical high and faced with great pressure, while silver had a large profit space after the collapse. The continuous inflow of CFTC fund positions reflected the expectation that the value of silver would supplement gold. On the other hand novel coronavirus pneumonia is affecting the supply side, especially the main producing area. The epidemic situation in Latin America is deteriorating further. The demand and supply side is aggravated by the sharp restoration of industry and finance.

Wang Jianqing, assistant chief analyst of master gold, said that golds surge was based on risk aversion, while silvers surge was driven by inflation. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is slowly recovering in the global economy, and slow growth in demand for the electronics industry has slowly restored the overcrowding of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in South America. Many silver mines and copper mines have been shut down or shut down, and the silver supply side has been affected. Because of the strong industrial attribute, the story of the supply side of the commodity market also has imagination space, which is the consistent pattern of market speculation logic.

Gold investors switch to silver

Under the counter attack of silver, the eyes of the older sisters (Chinese aunts) who ride the wind and waves are also attracted. Since then, he has been trading in Beijing Baiming bank for several years. Since the beginning of this year, the income of his investment in silver has reached 20%. On July 22, his investment in paper silver rose by 5.89%.

The investor said that they had a silver investment group. In the past, everyone was engaged in (paper) gold and (paper) crude oil, but this year they began to do silver trading. Gold has risen too much, but silver has not risen much before, with lower risks and higher returns, he said.

Wang said that the position of the worlds largest silver etfishares silver trust has been increasing since late March this year, with almost 5400 tons of silver purchased. The position change of silver ETF has become the driving force behind the rise of silver price. As long as the silver ETF continues to increase its holdings in silver, the silver price will generally maintain an upward rhythm.

Eight institutions look forward to asset allocation

See precious metals fly from the sky, many investors began to heart, at this time can you start? Under the current situation, how to do our asset allocation?

Stock

According to the analysis of the report, at present, domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, precious metals, crude oil and other major categories of assets have entered a period of relative balance, while various disturbing factors, such as the escalation of overseas epidemic situation, the pace of global economic recovery, the fluctuation of US capital market and Sino US friction, have not been eliminated. Under this scenario, tactical flexibility may be more promising in the coming months.

According to the report, based on the risk and long-term valuation level, the current low price to book ratio stocks are expected to repair the long-term discount. On the other hand, resource stocks with low price to book ratio, especially precious metal stocks, are expected to continue to benefit from high volatility expectations and high inflation expectations in low inflation and low volatility markets.

According to GF Securities research paper, the direction of internal and external economic recovery is relatively determined, and it is recommended to over allocate A-shares; the valuation advantage of Hong Kong shares is still obvious, and the improvement of Hong Kong stock structure brought by the return of China capital stock is the main logic and direction of Hong Kong stock investment in the second half of the year. It is suggested to over allocate Hong Kong stocks, and the fluctuation of US stocks may increase after the outbreak of repeated large rebound, so standard allocation is recommended.

According to Dong zhongyuns Research Report of AVIC securities, when there is no significant change in fundamentals, the medium and long-term upward trend of a shares is good, and both high-quality value and core growth are stressed. In terms of investment strategy, it is suggested that both high-quality value and core growth should be paid equal attention.

Bond

CICC research report analysis, bond, pressure is greater than opportunity. Short end interest rates bottomed out and term spreads slowed down. The return of growth to normal is not achieved overnight, and expected differentiation brings trading opportunities. Credit bonds are better than interest rate bonds. High rating bonds look for opportunities from the relative attractiveness of interest spreads, and high-yield bonds examine the risk of default. In the medium and long term, the long-term interest rate center will move down.

According to GF Securities Research Report, based on the reversal of the epidemic situation and economic expectations, the bond trend opportunity is no longer, and the most relaxed time point of policy has passed. However, before tightening, the central bank still has room to cut interest rates. After the sharp correction since May, the value of bond allocation reappears, which helps to prevent the economic recovery from being less than expected.

According to the analysis of AVIC Securities Research Report, fundamentals are still the gravity of the bond market. The current adjustment is in the same direction but not synchronized with the fundamentals. However, the low rate of interest rate has appeared in this round, and the rebound should be more involved in trading thinking.

Alternative assets

CITIC Securities research paper reminds that commodity assets that benefit more from the recovery of global demand may perform better, focusing on non-ferrous metals and adhering to the strategic allocation of precious metals. Among them, the gold silver ratio may continue to return to the long-term central level. In the medium and long term, silvers odds ratio and elasticity are higher than golds.

Guangfa Securities Research Report believes that under the uncertain political and economic environment, the global currency is expected to continue to loose, the US dollar index weakens, and gold still has a certain allocation value. With the continuous recovery of demand, crude oil enters the standard allocation range.

According to the analysis of AVIC Securities Research Report, the supply and demand of crude oil improved, and the oil price rebounded to the bottom in a V-shaped manner, but the subsequent upward pressure was greater. Considering that the epidemic is still spreading and the second rebound has already occurred, the uncertainty of the production reduction agreement, and the strategic need to suppress the shale oil industry in the United States, further oil price rise will face greater pressure.

CICC research report analysis, alternative assets and overseas, the role of gold risk diversification in the second half of the year is more prominent. Crude oil benefits from a global resonance recovery, and the risk is that supply will increase faster than demand improves. After China, the overseas resumption of work and production is behind that of China, but the policy is more relaxed than that of China, and the risk asset elasticity may be greater, but the volatility is also high.

In terms of alternative assets, precious metals can earn better returns under the global zero interest rate environment, iron and steel and nonferrous metals have the potential to reverse the cycle and have the characteristics of leading the recovery cycle. Therefore, the agricultural products can hedge the impact of overseas epidemic situation to a certain extent, and the proportion of allocation proposed at the beginning of the year is also increased. Judging that the short-term risk of crude oil is too large, considering the investment tools and transaction structure, it is not recommended to carry out game on crude oil assets.

Institutional outlook

CITIC Securities had previously looked forward to the investment strategy of the second half of the year, believing that the business cycle in the second half of the year may gradually turn from the recovery stage to the prosperity stage. It is expected that the performance of major categories of assets will be ranked as follows: commodities > stocks > bonds. According to the results of the comprehensive model and the logic of each major asset class, the market may be divided into two stages: from June to September, it is suggested that the allocation should be relatively balanced; in the fourth quarter, stocks should be the main allocation; and the allocation logic of gold and crude oil runs through the two stages, and the overall recovery is achieved.

According to the Research Report of Zhu Qibings team of BOC securities, Chinas economy is still in the recovery channel in the second half of 2020, and the overall policy remains restrained. The order of asset allocation is: stock > commodity > bond > currency.

According to the report, in the second half of 2020, the trend of global epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertainty, the global economy is recovering slowly, and the monetary policy of major global central banks continues to be loose. Overseas funds continue to flow into China, but the severe external environment needs attention.

In the second half of 2020, Chinas economic growth is still in the recovery channel, GDP growth rate rises quarterly, and the production side is better than the demand side. In the demand side, infrastructure investment is a relatively certain growth support. In the second half of the year, CPI gradually fell down year-on-year, PPI rose, year-on-year decline narrowed, RMB exchange rate was strong, two-way fluctuations.

According to the Research Report of song Xuetao of Tianfeng securities, the global epidemic situation will spread at least until the end of the year and the first half of next year. In developed countries, the early resumption of work and protests in the United States make the epidemic return, which will bring uncertainty to the slope of economic recovery at this stage. It is expected that the recovery rate of the US economy will slow down in the second half of the year, and the next stage of demand will replace supply as the key to restricting the recovery.

In terms of asset allocation, U.S. stocks are still volatile with downward risk. U.S. debt fluctuated between 0.6% and 1.0%. The credit spread is likely to remain close to the current position, so investors can choose clo if they want to bet on the credit market. The US dollar index is weak because of the huge amount of easing in the United States. Gold is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Crude oil fluctuates in the range limited by the supply of shale oil in the United States. According to the Research Report of GF Securities, in terms of epidemic situation, the development of epidemic situation in different regions of the world is quite different. However, based on the optimistic progress of vaccine research and development and the rich experience of major economies in response to the epidemic situation, the risk of secondary outbreak of global epidemic is small, and the epidemic situation is no longer the main constraint of the market in the second half of the year. In terms of economy, the current domestic economy may slow down after a rapid rebound, but the recovery trend is relatively clear. After a short-term shock in developed economies, the economy has restarted and the recovery process has accelerated. (wind synthesizes China Securities Journal, daily economic news, etc.) source: Wind Information Editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368

According to the Research Report of GF Securities, in terms of epidemic situation, the development of epidemic situation in different regions of the world is quite different. However, based on the optimistic progress of vaccine research and development and the rich experience of major economies in response to the epidemic situation, the risk of secondary outbreak of global epidemic is small, and the epidemic situation is no longer the main constraint of the market in the second half of the year.

(wind synthesizes China Securities News, daily economic news, etc.)