In the first half of the year, the supply of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities was 219.66 million square meters, while the turnover was 223.92 million square meters. Generally speaking, the supply was less than the demand, but the inventory scale of 100 cities still increased by 6% compared with the same period of the previous year. The inventory sales ratio of newly-built commercial residential buildings, that is, the period of inventory elimination is 12.8 months, which also means that the time for the market to digest the inventory is more than one year. The data of de inventory cycle in the first half of this year showed an upward trend, and obviously exceeded the low level of 2016-2019.
At the time of the half year examination, there is obvious differentiation among cities. The report shows that the inventory risk of third and fourth tier cities is gradually accumulating. Among the top 10 cities in the first half of the year, except Wuhan, the remaining nine cities are third and fourth tier cities, which indicates that such cities are facing high de stocking pressure. For example, the destocking cycle of Zhangzhou, Rizhao, Sanya, Xianghe and Baotou exceeded 40 months, while that of Yantai, Jingdezhen, Wuhan, Wuhu and Quanzhou exceeded 30 months.
In contrast, the de stocking cycle of Ningbo is only 2.3 months, Ganzhou and Hangzhou are less than 4 months, Chengdu, Qingyuan, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Maanshan are all within 6 months, and Dalian is 6.1 months.
Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Real Estate Research Institute, told the daily economic news, there are many reasons, some cities have bad market transactions, some cities have recently increased supply, for example, Sanya has been strict restrictions on purchasing, the investment demand has been reduced, so the cycle ratio of going to chemical is longer; Wuhan is obviously impacted by the epidemic, and some cities will improve as the epidemic weakens Some cities will continue to be under pressure.
Xianghe has obviously entered the era of stock housing, new housing supply needs to be particularly vigilant. Yan Yuejin said.
In some cities, retaliatory recovery is particularly fast. In March of this year, the epidemic situation was slightly effective, and all sales offices in Ningbo resumed the appearance of xiaoyangchun. Li Xingzeng, a high-end real estate real estate consultant in Haishu District of Ningbo, told reporters, there are so many people looking at houses, and the weekend is very lively. At ordinary times, one or two sets of transactions are completed every day, and more than ten sets can be traded on weekends. In this way, 80 ~ 90 sets of transactions can be completed in a month. Last years little spring market, the monthly turnover was 120 sets.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, the price of new houses in Ningbo rose by 6% year-on-year in June, and the second-hand houses ranked among the top 10, 8.6% and 1.2% respectively. In addition to Ningbo, among the cities with the lowest deposit to sales ratio, Hangzhou and Chengdu also showed a strong recovery momentum in the first half of the year, and even appeared the scene of ten thousand people lottery.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that generally speaking, the decontamination cycle is a measure of a markets digestion capacity. If the cycle is too short, it means that the citys property market is overheated and it is necessary to prevent the rise of speculation; if the cycle is too long, it will do harm to the market, so we should put De stocking in the most critical position.
Guard against capital inflow into second tier property market
It is worth noting that in 100 cities, 61 cities have a year-on-year positive growth in inventory. Inventory in some second tier cities increased significantly, including Hangzhou, Hohhot, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Nanning, etc.
The reporter noted that in some cities where the inventory has risen rapidly, the rise of house prices is also very active. According to the price changes of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities released by the National Bureau of statistics on July 16, Hohhot ranked fourth in China with a year-on-year increase of 12%, while Nannings house price rose by the sixth and eighth place respectively.
According to the weft housing index of the Institute of financial strategy of the Academy of Social Sciences, funds have begun to flow into the property market of the second tier cities. Among the 27 second tier cities in June, only 5 cities showed a month on month decline in house prices. In addition to Ningbo, Nantong and other cities increased significantly, Dongguan, Wuxi and other cities also maintained a relatively high growth rate.
Under the loose monetary environment, the market credit interest rate is rapidly reduced, and the difficulty of loans is significantly reduced. A large number of low-cost credit funds are looking for a way out in the capital market. The housing big data group of the Academy of Social Sciences analyzes the reasons and believes that this indirectly injects a stimulant into the sluggish property market in some cities.
The housing big data group predicts that in the second half of 2020, in order to avoid fund speculation on housing prices in some cities, especially in the second tier cities, under the background of loan restriction failure, more cities will follow the upgrading of the purchase restriction policy in Shenzhen.
However, kerrui believes that with the gradual release of the accumulated demand for house purchase due to the epidemic situation in the early stage and the adjustment and upgrading of some overheated markets such as Ningbo, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, it is difficult to continue the market heat in the short term. In the future, the overall supply and demand will be stable. The inventory scale will continue to increase steadily in July, and the inventory digestion cycle is expected to fall slightly Projects are piling up, and supply exceeds demand. The current cool third and fourth tier cities in Central China will gradually accumulate inventory risk, and the market as a whole is under pressure.
Related links Ningbo out of control new deal: no house family priority subscription
Which city is the most in demand of new houses in China? It is not Hangzhou, nor Shenzhen, but Ningbo, Zhejiang Province.
The inventory sales ratio of new houses is only 2.3 months. In Ningbo, which is still hot, not only the price of new houses increased by 6% year-on-year, but also the second-hand houses also ranked among the top 10 in China, accounting for 8.6% and 1.2% respectively. The market forecasts that after Hangzhou and Shenzhen, Ningbo and other hot areas will introduce regulatory policies.
On July 22, the boots landed. Ningbo housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau and other departments issued the notice on further improving the sales behavior of commercial housing and effectively protecting the residents self housing demand. The notice specifies that families who have no housing in the administrative areas of Haishu District, Jiangbei District, Zhenhai District, Beilun District, Yinzhou District and Fenghua District of Ningbo City and meet one of the following conditions may give priority to subscribe for one set of commercial housing according to the requirements of this circular.
The transfer will take five years
The notice gives a detailed interpretation of the houseless family. Firstly, one of the family members (both spouses and minor children) has household registration in six districts of the city; secondly, it has paid social insurance for 24 months or more continuously in the six districts of the city in recent three years; thirdly, the person or his spouse belongs to the top talents, excellent talents, leading talents, top-notch talents and senior talents introduced by the city The above three types of families are collectively referred to as houseless families.
The official account of Ningbos housing construction WeChat has interpreted three types of families:
Example 2: Xiaozhaos family is registered in Cixi, but they have been working and living in Yinzhou District for three years, social security has been paid for 24 consecutive months, and the social security payment place is also in Yinzhou District. Xiao Zhao, his wife and minor children have no housing in the six districts of the City, so Xiaozhao belongs to the second type of family.
Example 3: Professor Chen is a senior talent introduced into Hangzhou Bay New Area. Professor Chen and his wife and minor children have no housing in six districts of the city. Professor Chen belongs to the third type of family.
At the same time, the reporter also noted that the policy stipulates that the real estate ownership certificate must be obtained before it can be transferred for commercial housing with priority of non housing families.
50% of housing resources for priority subscription
According to the inventory report of 100 cities issued by E-House Research Institute, the inventory sales ratio of newly-built residential buildings in Ningbo is only 2.3 months, which is the lowest in 100 cities in China. The cycle is too short, indicating that the citys property market is overheated, and it is necessary to prevent the rise of speculation. Yan Yuejin pointed out.
In this context, the new purchase policy of Ningbo clearly states that for the commercial residential projects or batches in line with the sales conditions within the six districts of the city, the real estate development enterprises should randomly select no less than 50% of the saleable residential housing resources (calculated according to the number of units) under the supervision of the notarial agency for the priority subscription of non housing families. Before the sale of the project or batch of houses, the real estate development enterprises should organize the families without houses to subscribe first.
If the number of households without housing participating in the preemptive subscription exceeds the number of pre-sale housing units that should be provided, the real estate development enterprise shall adopt the public lottery method to determine the purchase object, and the notarization agency shall notarize the whole process of the lottery.
In order to prevent the speculation of housing resources, the policy also limits the object of lottery. Families without housing who participate in the priority subscription are not allowed to participate in the registration of purchase intention of any other project from the date of registration of purchase intention to the end of the priority subscription activity of the project.
The real estate development enterprises should allow the non housing families to participate in the purchase of the remaining housing resources if they fail to win the bid in the priority subscription. If the ratio between the number of intention to buy a house and the number of remaining houses exceeds 2:1, the real estate development enterprise shall also adopt the public lottery method to determine the purchase object, and the notarization agency shall notarize the whole process of the lottery. Real estate development enterprises shall, within 3 days from the date of confirming the buyers, upload the list of buyers (including families without houses) to the municipal real estate trading network for social supervision. Such policies in Ningbo can be used for reference in some cities where the inventory has been removed too quickly, and at least it can help to reduce the pressure on just needed houses. Through the combination of purchase restriction and preferential purchase policy, it is helpful to implement the policy guidance of housing without speculation and supporting reasonable housing demand Yan Yuejin said. Source: Daily Economic News Author: Bao Jingjing, editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF
The real estate development enterprises should allow the non housing families to participate in the purchase of the remaining housing resources if they fail to win the bid in the priority subscription. If the ratio between the number of intention to buy a house and the number of remaining houses exceeds 2:1, the real estate development enterprise shall also adopt the public lottery method to determine the purchase object, and the notarization agency shall notarize the whole process of the lottery. Real estate development enterprises shall, within 3 days from the date of confirming the buyers, upload the list of buyers (including families without houses) to the municipal real estate trading network for social supervision.
Such policies in Ningbo can be used for reference in some cities where the inventory has been removed too quickly, and at least it can help to reduce the pressure on just needed houses. Through the combination of purchase restriction and preferential purchase policy, it is helpful to implement the policy guidance of housing without speculation and supporting reasonable housing demand Yan Yuejin said.