Some small and medium-sized banks are still expected to cut interest rates after the peak period of bond issuance

category:Finance
 Some small and medium-sized banks are still expected to cut interest rates after the peak period of bond issuance


MPA assessment indicators of some small and medium sized banks relaxed

It is true that some banks have received notification from local regulators that they can start to apply for adjustment of tolerance parameters and alpha parameters this year. A city commercial bank asset management department of the first financial reporter said.

In terms of lending capacity, the three major policy banks, six state-owned banks and 12 joint-stock banks account for more than 60% of the total amount of credit in China, and the profits account for about 70%. However, these banks have the advantage of serving local small and medium-sized enterprises and are not fully covered by large banks.

It makes sense to make some adjustments. At present, the external environment of bank operation has changed a lot. In order to support the development of small and micro enterprises, some reasonable adjustments can be made to the MPA assessment of small and medium-sized banks, otherwise the development of small and medium-sized banks will be restricted. Lian Ping said. He also mentioned that the adjustment should not be too large and should be based on reality.

According to the reporters understanding, the current relaxation is still local. A senior official of a large state-owned bank told reporters that no similar notice had been received. There are also some large-scale joint-stock banks and city commercial banks said, did not receive notice.

Before the semi annual report, we did rush to release a batch of loans at the end of June, but the preferential policies within the bank were collected in July. At present, I have not heard that MPa assessment is relaxed. It is estimated that after the loan volume in the first half of the year, the growth rate of corporate loans will slow down in the second half of the year. The person in charge of corporate business of a stock bank told reporters.

Since 2016, the central bank has upgraded the dynamic adjustment mechanism of differential reserves to MPa, which has become an important part of the financial regulatory policy framework of monetary policy + macro Prudential policy. MPA extends its focus on narrow loan to broad credit. The scope of broad credit includes loan, bond investment, equity and other investment, repurchase of resale assets and deposit of non deposit financial institutions (excluding the buy back sale between deposit financial institutions). Afterwards, off balance sheet financing is included in the broad credit scope.

Previously, the financial statistics released by the central bank showed that from January to June this year, RMB loans increased by 12.09 trillion yuan, and the scale of social financing increased by 20.83 trillion yuan. During the Lujiazui forum, central bank governor Yi Gang said, looking forward to the second half of the year, monetary policy will also maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. It is expected that RMB loans will be increased by nearly 20 trillion yuan in the whole year, and the increment of social financing scale will exceed 30 trillion yuan. From this point of view, in the first half of this year, 60% of the target of the whole year has been achieved in credit supply and 69% in social financing.

In the second half of the year, monetary policy laid stress on structure and lowered prices

As far as the monetary policy in the second half of the year is concerned, Lian Ping also believes that it is no longer necessary to take measures as frequently as when the epidemic was serious at the beginning of the year. The combination of broad currency + heavy structure + price reduction of monetary policy may not change, but in view of the reasonable and abundant liquidity, the second half of the year may focus more on restructuring + price reduction.

On the one hand, by innovating monetary policy tools and grasping the policy strength, focus and rhythm, we can more effectively support the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises; on the other hand, we will further significantly reduce the financing interest rate of the real economy by lowering the refinancing interest rate, MLF (medium-term loan facility) and LPR (loan quotation interest rate).

Lian Ping told reporters that the reason why the recent interest rate cut has always been absent may be because we have to wait for the end of the debt issuance peak and the successful issuance of anti epidemic special treasury bonds, and then further reduce the interest rate. In order to make the peak of bond issuance smooth, the interest rate should not be too low, which also helps to improve the allocation enthusiasm of banks.

Institutions expect that after July, the peak of bond issuance will come to an end. Liu Jie, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered, told reporters that 60% of the government bond issuance will be completed by the end of July, which means that the average monthly net issuance from August to December is 670 billion yuan, lower than the expected monthly average of 737 billion yuan from January to July.

In Lian Pings view, it is unlikely that interest rates will be lowered again before the issuance of anti epidemic special treasury bonds is completed. In the middle and later period of the third quarter, interest rate may be reduced once or twice and interest rate will be reduced by 20-30 basis points (BP). In view of the strong recovery of Chinas economy and the fact that Chinas economy has achieved positive growth throughout the year, there should be no room for a substantial decrease in financing interest rates. In addition, the possibility of further comprehensive or structural reduction of 50-100bp is not excluded. He believes that in the second half of the year, RMB loans may increase by about 8 trillion yuan, and the increase in social financing scale may reach about 10 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of broad money M2 may maintain a high level with the increase of the scale of RMB credit and social financing, and may run in the range of 11% - 11.5% in the whole year. Extended reading: 6.819 billion! The day after the lifting of the ban, eight companies on the science and Technology Innovation Board will reduce their holdings of Ping An Property Insurance by 17 billion and acquire 26% of the equity of auto home. Ministry of Commerce: urging the us to stop its countervailing investigation into the so-called undervalued exchange rate. Source: Zhong Qiming, editor in charge of the first finance and Economics_ NF5619

In Lian Pings view, it is unlikely that interest rates will be lowered again before the issuance of anti epidemic special treasury bonds is completed. In the middle and later period of the third quarter, interest rate may be reduced once or twice and interest rate will be reduced by 20-30 basis points (BP). In view of the strong recovery of Chinas economy and the fact that Chinas economy has achieved positive growth throughout the year, there should be no room for a substantial decrease in financing interest rates.

In addition, the possibility of further comprehensive or structural reduction of 50-100bp is not excluded. He believes that in the second half of the year, RMB loans may increase by about 8 trillion yuan, and the increase in social financing scale may reach about 10 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of broad money M2 may maintain a high level with the increase of the scale of RMB credit and social financing, and may run in the range of 11% - 11.5% in the whole year.