Some small and medium-sized banks are still expected to cut interest rates after the peak period of bond issuance

category:Finance
 Some small and medium-sized banks are still expected to cut interest rates after the peak period of bond issuance


MPA assessment indicators of some small and medium sized banks relaxed

It was reported last week that in order to encourage small and medium-sized banks to speed up lending, local regulators have offered a helping hand. According to media reports, some banks in East China have recently received a notice from local regulators that they can apply to local branches of the central bank to reduce some of the assessment parameters of MPa. They can be set up as soon as July, so as to eliminate the worries of small and medium-sized banks failing to meet the assessment standards.

It is true that some banks have received notification from local regulators that they can start to apply for adjustment of tolerance parameters and alpha parameters this year. A city commercial bank asset management department of the first financial reporter said.

For example, the regulatory department of Jilin Province issued an opinion that the evaluation results of local legal person financial institutions whose capital adequacy ratio is not up to standard due to rapid loan growth but whose other assessment items are up to the standard will be upgraded from grade C to grade B. For the local legal person financial institutions whose appraisal result is grade A, but the loan in the evaluation period is less than that in the same period, the evaluation result is lowered to grade B.

In terms of lending capacity, the three major policy banks, six state-owned banks and 12 joint-stock banks account for more than 60% of the total amount of credit in China, and the profits account for about 70%. However, these banks have the advantage of serving local small and medium-sized enterprises and are not fully covered by large banks.

According to the reporters understanding, the current relaxation is still local. A senior official of a large state-owned bank told reporters that no similar notice had been received. There are also some large-scale joint-stock banks and city commercial banks said, did not receive notice.

Previously, the financial statistics released by the central bank showed that from January to June this year, RMB loans increased by 12.09 trillion yuan, and the scale of social financing increased by 20.83 trillion yuan. During the Lujiazui forum, central bank governor Yi Gang said, looking forward to the second half of the year, monetary policy will also maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. It is expected that RMB loans will be increased by nearly 20 trillion yuan in the whole year, and the increment of social financing scale will exceed 30 trillion yuan. From this point of view, in the first half of this year, 60% of the target of the whole year has been achieved in credit supply and 69% in social financing.

In the second half of the year, monetary policy laid stress on structure and lowered prices

As far as the monetary policy in the second half of the year is concerned, Lian Ping also believes that it is no longer necessary to take measures as frequently as when the epidemic was serious at the beginning of the year. The combination of broad currency + heavy structure + price reduction of monetary policy may not change, but in view of the reasonable and abundant liquidity, the second half of the year may focus more on restructuring + price reduction.

On the one hand, by innovating monetary policy tools and grasping the policy strength, focus and rhythm, we can more effectively support the real economy, especially small and medium-sized enterprises; on the other hand, we will further significantly reduce the financing interest rate of the real economy by lowering the refinancing interest rate, MLF (medium-term loan facility) and LPR (loan quotation interest rate).

Lian Ping told reporters that the reason why the recent interest rate cut has always been absent may be because we have to wait for the end of the debt issuance peak and the successful issuance of anti epidemic special treasury bonds, and then further reduce the interest rate. In order to make the peak of bond issuance smooth, the interest rate should not be too low, which also helps to improve the allocation enthusiasm of banks.

Institutions expect that after July, the peak of bond issuance will come to an end. Liu Jie, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered, told reporters that 60% of the government bond issuance will be completed by the end of July, which means that the average monthly net issuance from August to December is 670 billion yuan, lower than the expected monthly average of 737 billion yuan from January to July.

In Lian Pings view, it is unlikely that interest rates will be lowered again before the issuance of anti epidemic special treasury bonds is completed. In the middle and later period of the third quarter, interest rate may be reduced once or twice and interest rate will be reduced by 20-30 basis points (BP). In view of the strong recovery of Chinas economy and the fact that Chinas economy has achieved positive growth throughout the year, there should be no room for a substantial decrease in financing interest rates. In addition, the possibility of further comprehensive or structural reduction of 50-100bp is not excluded. He believes that in the second half of the year, RMB loans may increase by about 8 trillion yuan, and the increase in social financing scale may reach about 10 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of broad money M2 may maintain a high level with the increase of the scale of RMB credit and social financing, and may run in the range of 11% - 11.5% in the whole year. Extended reading: 6.819 billion! The day after the lifting of the ban, eight companies on the science and Technology Innovation Board will reduce their holdings of Ping An Property Insurance by 17 billion and acquire 26% of the equity of auto home. Ministry of Commerce: urging the us to stop its countervailing investigation into the so-called undervalued exchange rate. Source: Zhong Qiming, editor in charge of the first finance and Economics_ NF5619

In addition, the possibility of further comprehensive or structural reduction of 50-100bp is not excluded. He believes that in the second half of the year, RMB loans may increase by about 8 trillion yuan, and the increase in social financing scale may reach about 10 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of broad money M2 may maintain a high level with the increase of the scale of RMB credit and social financing, and may run in the range of 11% - 11.5% in the whole year.