Since the beginning of 2019, the A-share market has entered a technical bull market for 18 months, which has been the longest bull market in China in the last decade. If it is extended to a longer time, from June 6, 2005 to October 16, 2007, the index has risen from 998 to 6214 points, up 513%. This round of market prosperity has lasted for more than 24 months.
However, in the view of top fund managers, no matter how long the market can last, bull market or bear market, the investment opportunities and investment methods of A-share market will not change. Bull stocks often exist, but bull markets do not often. This is the truth. Without the background of bull market, a large number of big bull stocks have increased more than five or even 10 times in recent five years, which shows that seizing high-quality stocks is better than seizing bull market and stepping on it The rhythm of quasi market style is more definite.
As of June 30, 2020, eight top fund managers with different styles in China have managed nearly 300 billion yuan of funds. At the same time, they have adopted the strategy of diluting position control and attaching importance to individual stock investment, that is, risk control does not take the height of stock position as the measurement logic.
For example, in the A-share market in 2011, although the A-share index fell by more than 20%, some of the funds operating with high positions outperformed the market perfectly and achieved good positive returns. At the same time, some funds with low positions in the A-share market fell in the process of allocating fewer stocks, but the allocated stocks were all falling industries and individual stocks. Therefore, the low position operation resulted in large losses The situation.
Because it is rare to precisely avoid systemic risk by reducing positions for a long time, and the structural characteristics of the market are very prominent, which means that the operation of high position is not directly related to whether the fund manager is optimistic about the market. The quarterly reports of the eight top fund managers also show that the strategy focuses on structural individual stock selection, avoiding potential market risks through high-quality individual stocks. As a result, high stock positions are still maintained at the end of June. A considerable proportion of fund managers have positions of more than 80% or even 90%, and some top fund managers only have 10 stocks, accounting for more than 70%. The shareholding concentration is high and the purpose of holding shares is clear u3002
Zhang Kun, deputy general manager of e Fonda
The total scale of funds under management is 52.2 billion
In terms of individual stocks, we still hold high-quality companies with excellent business model, clear industry structure and strong competitiveness. Chinas economy is facing transformation. From the experience of Europe and the United States, when the economic growth rate slows down, the competition pattern of the industry is usually improved, the capital expenditure will be more cautious, the asset turnover rate and the return on capital of enterprises will generally increase, the expectation of entrepreneurs will be more reasonable, and excellent enterprises will usually obtain greater competitive advantages.
Especially in the era of mobile Internet, the speed of information transmission is faster and faster. Compared with the past, the time, speed and intensity of competitive advantage of head enterprises are stronger. In this era, we are expected to witness the continuous growth of a number of excellent enterprises in various industries. We hope to be able to select some of them, accompany and share the business results of these excellent companies.
The total scale of funds under management is 11.2 billion
Wang Zonghe, general manager of Equity Investment Department II of Penghua Fund
The total scale of funds under management is 44 billion
In March, the whole world suffered from the impact of the epidemic, which led to a systematic recovery in the whole market in the second quarter. Among them, our bottom-up selection of these varieties has been more recognized by the market in the process of the fall and recovery, and the stock price recovered faster.
Therefore, the yield of the whole second quarter is relatively good, and the layout of consumption, medicine and other industries has achieved relatively good results. Looking forward to the future, we still select individual stocks from bottom to top, adhere to our own ideas and methods, conduct in-depth mining and research in companies with long-term value creation, and strive to bring better returns to investors.
Liu Gesong, general manager of growth and Investment Department of GF fund
The total fund under management is 82 billion yuan
In the second quarter of 2020, the domestic epidemic situation will gradually ease and be controllable. Enterprises will orderly promote the resumption of work and production, and all economic indicators will show an obvious rebound trend. The policy of the NPC and CPPCC has been adjusted throughout the year. For the first time, no GDP growth target has been set. The intensity of fiscal policy has been significantly increased, and the monetary environment has remained loose as a whole. Although the overseas epidemic continues to ferment, the global central banks have worked together to resolve the liquidity crisis, and asset prices, which have been hit hard in the early stage, have rebounded. With the gradual opening of major economies and the bottom of the economy, global asset price performance began to switch from liquidity driven to profit recovery driven.
With the alleviation of the epidemic situation, the hot spots of the market began to shift from the industry with relatively definite short-term performance to the industry of profit recovery. In the second quarter of 2020, the market differentiation is obvious, and the performance of medicine and science and technology is better. The fund focuses on the allocation of medical services, semiconductor, computer-based growth industries. We believe that with the alleviation of the domestic epidemic situation, the advantage of consumer goods is gradually weakening. At the same time, with the alleviation of overseas epidemic situation, the sustainability of economic recovery or the recovery of overseas economy, the foreign demand chain will also enter the recovery period.
Liu Yanchun, general manager assistant and research director of Jingshun Great Wall
The total scale of funds under management is 34.6 billion
Different from the previous ways to deal with the crisis, this round of counter cyclical policy is more based on the supply side, helping enterprises to actively resume work and production, and relatively restraining at the demand side. It emphasizes precision drip irrigation, which provides unprecedented support to small and medium-sized enterprises. In terms of investment, it also pays attention to precision and effectiveness, and new infrastructure such as 5g, data center and artificial intelligence have become key investment fields.
From the perspective of policy effect, since March, Chinas economic indicators have shown signs of repair. In May, PMI of service industry and manufacturing industry both rose to above 50 prosperity and withering line. Infrastructure investment, real estate sales and real estate investment rebounded rapidly. Exports exceeded expectations, in part because of the high export of epidemic prevention materials and the transfer of orders from countries with severe epidemic situation to China. The rapid economic rebound has proved that the necessity of strong stimulus is very low. It is expected that the policy direction of the second half of the year will continue in the first half.
The most relaxed stage of funds has passed. The main purpose of monetary marginal tightening is to crack down on the idling of funds in the financial and physical fields. The policy keynote is still to reduce the financing cost of entities and guide funds into the entities. It is expected that more measures will be introduced to promote direct access of funds to entities in the future. At this stage, the investment in manufacturing industry is low, the price is low, and the employment pressure is great. It is expected that the policy will continue to be friendly in stages.
The trade friction between China and the United States and the new epidemic situation have a short-term impact on Chinas economic operation, but they are likely to accelerate the development of Chinas science and technology industry. The trade friction between China and the United States makes us give up our illusions and accelerate the substitution of domestic products; the epidemic situation accelerates the process of digitalization and intellectualization of Chinas traditional industries. China is still the most dynamic economy in the world, the urbanization rate continues to increase, and the industrial upgrading is accelerating. Science and technology can enhance efficiency, change can always bring investment opportunities, and equity investment has a bright future.
Zhu Shaoxing, deputy general manager of Wells Fargo fund and general manager of equity investment department
The total scale of funds under management is 14.2 billion
The main macro factors affecting the market are the control of domestic epidemic situation and loose liquidity. The differentiation of market structure continued to increase in the second quarter. The valuation of epidemic benefit stocks and core assets with outstanding long-term competitiveness has reached new highs. At this stage, it is necessary to make a more in-depth study on the company quality and the corresponding valuation rationality. High quality stocks and well-known star stocks should not be the same concept.
Were focused on screening high-quality stocks. We do not have the reliable ability to accurately predict the short-term trend of the market. Instead, we focus on patiently collecting the stocks of excellent companies with great prospects, waiting for the realization of the companys own value creation and the periodic return of market sentiment at some point in the future.
At the level of individual stock selection, they prefer to invest in enterprises with good corporate gene, perfect corporate governance structure and excellent management. We believe that such enterprises have a greater probability of obtaining high-quality growth in the future. It is the best way for growth funds to share the capital market income brought by their own growth.
Dong Chengfei, deputy general manager of Societe generalfund
At present, the fund under management is 36 billion yuan
In the second quarter, the continuous deterioration of the overseas epidemic situation has become the main reason for the impact on the global economy. Although overseas work and production are gradually resumed, the economy is still subject to a greater impact. In this context, global interest rates accelerate downward and liquidity continues to be abundant.
From the domestic situation, we still emphasize the positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and the overall economic situation of this year can not be underestimated. However, with the abundant liquidity, the market has gradually shown positive feedback, and the new development fund has also continued the hot phenomenon in the first quarter. The enthusiasm of market participation has gradually increased, and the valuation of core assets has also further increased. We have maintained close attention to this.
The fund still adheres to the principle of fundamental orientation, focusing on companies with increasing long-term competitiveness and emerging growth industries, and pays attention to the matching degree of valuation and performance, so as to achieve a balance between safety margin and aggressiveness, so as to create medium and long-term value for investors.
Feng Mingyuan, joint investment director, Cinda Bank of Australia
The technology competition between China and the United States will become increasingly fierce in 2020, and Huawei will become the focus of competition between China and the United States. As the worlds most advanced country in information technology, the United States has a very strong control over the global information industry chain, and China still has a long way to go.
The fund focuses on emerging industries, and properly allocates some companies in traditional industries. It mainly invests in communication, electronics, computer, new energy vehicles, equipment, new materials, household appliances, food and beverage, traditional cycle and other fields. Looking forward to the future, the fund managers believe that after the outbreak, the application of 5g will flourish, new energy vehicles will enter thousands of households in the future, and science and technology will continue to be the driving force to promote the progress of human society.
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