The GDP of 29 provinces in the first half of the year was announced, and the most resilient provinces have these characteristics

category:Global
 The GDP of 29 provinces in the first half of the year was announced, and the most resilient provinces have these characteristics


Wenyuxiong Zhi

After a year and a half, its time to summarize and sort out. Especially affected by the epidemic situation, the economic performance in the first half of this year has attracted much attention.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, Chinas GDP was 45661.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.6% compared with the same period of last year. At the same time, all over the country have published their report cards. As of July 22, a total of 29 provinces have released economic data for the first half of the year. Only Hebei and Heilongjiang provinces have yet to disclose.

So, what is the specific performance of these 29 provinces? Under the epidemic situation, which provinces showed strong resistance to pressure?

The GDP growth rate of 16 provinces is positive, among which Hunan is the most resistant

In terms of economic volume, compared with the whole year of 2019, the position of the top six did not change in the first half of this year, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan and Sichuan in descending order.

Last year, Hubei, which ranked seventh in terms of economic aggregate, was hit hardest by the epidemic and was overtaken by Fujian, Hunan and Anhui. In addition to Hubei, the main changes include Jiangxis anti overtaking of Liaoning, Guizhous anti surpassing of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiangs anti surpassing of Tianjin.

Under the influence of black swan, the ranking rate of GDP among provinces will change this year. The changes here are not only in the above-mentioned regions, such as Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guangxi, whose GDP is more than one trillion yuan, and the gap between them is only about 100 billion yuan, which may be caught up and overtaken at any time.

In terms of growth rate, among the 29 provinces, there are 16 provinces with positive GDP growth in half a year, and the remaining 13 provinces have negative growth. Among them, Tibet, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Gansu, Hunan, Ningxia and Qinghai are seven regions with a growth rate higher than 1.0%. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year is lower than (- 1.6%) in Guangdong, Hubei, Shanghai, Beijing, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin and Hainan.

These fast-growing regions are not big economic provinces, and Hunans highest GDP can only rank eighth in China. It is also because of the small volume, under the impact of the epidemic situation, we can adjust the response flexibly.

However, in a large economic province like Guangdong, or in key first and second tier cities such as Shanghai and Tianjin, the impact of the epidemic has affected all aspects, and it is more difficult to return to work and production. More factors have been taken into account, and the short-term recovery capacity is lower and slower.

Each province has its own advantages

During the epidemic period, enterprises stopped production and the economic order was seriously affected. Whether it is epidemic prevention and control, or return to work and production, it is a great test for all parts of the country.

For example, Tibet and Xinjiang are relatively independent geographical units, and the economic level is relatively less dependent on the external division of labor. On the premise that the epidemic situation blocks the market circulation, this economic development model can ensure the continuity of production.

Moreover, due to its population size and density, which are smaller than most provinces, the impact of the epidemic is relatively small, and it is not surprising that the growth rate leads the country.

Ningxia, Qinghai and even Gansu also have relatively light epidemic pressure factors. In fact, the growth rate of the three regions last year was not much higher than the GDP growth rate (- 1.6%) in the first half of the year.

Look at Guizhou again. As a typical investment driven Province, Guizhou has been a growth star in the past few years. In the first half of the year, fixed investment decreased by 4.9%, and total tourism income decreased by 75.2%, but GDP growth still reached 1.5%. This is because the performance of the four pillar industries of coal, electricity, tobacco and wine is eye-catching, and the growth rate is not low. For example, the tobacco product industry grew by 7.6%.

Compared with Guizhou and other provinces with low GDP ranking, the contrast of Guangdong, the largest economic province, is somewhat obvious. In the first half of this year, GDP dropped by 2.5% year-on-year.

The reason is that, on the one hand, Guangdong, which has a large number of migrant population, had a high risk of import in the early stage, which led to great pressure on prevention and control. Until now, there is still a heavy pressure on international epidemic import. This will more or less delay the progress and effect of returning to work and production.

On the other hand, Guangdongs dependence on foreign trade is very high. Under the dual pressure of international epidemic situation and Global trade environment changes, foreign trade has been greatly affected, and the total import and export volume in half a year has decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. Due to the blocked circulation of goods and personnel, many foreign trade enterprises can not normally receive orders.

Source: Beijing News

Compared with Guangdong, Zhejiang, which is also a big economic province, grew by 0.5% in the first half of the year. One important reason is that Zhejiangs digital economy is relatively developed, and many enterprises can work remotely. In addition, Zhejiang, which has many e-commerce companies, is also the main beneficiary of the switch from offline consumption to online consumption caused by the epidemic.

As for Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Hainan and other places, they are in the transition period and are facing various development problems. For example, Liaonings industry is aging, population outflow, Hainans real estate dependence is too heavy. Facing the impact of the epidemic, there are inevitably signs of further decline.

We have to mention Hubei. In the first quarter, Hubei decreased 39.2% year-on-year, 19.3% in the first half of the year, up 19.9 percentage points. It can be said that the recovery speed is still quite fast.

Economic structure affects the resilience of provinces

If we analyze the regional distribution of the provinces with strong pressure resistance and lower than the GDP growth rate in the first half of China, we can find that the economic performance under the epidemic situation has a strong regional law.

For example, most of the 16 provinces with positive GDP growth in half a year are located in the South; most of the 13 provinces with negative GDP growth are in the north.

This is in line with the previous judgment that the real gap in Chinas economy lies in the north and south, not in the East and the west. In fact, it is not only the provincial level comparison, but also the city level. In the first half of the year, Tianjin fell by 3.9% year-on-year. No accident, it will be reversed by Nanjing, and it will fall out of the top 10 GDP of China. At that time, Beijing will be the only city in the north of the GDP top 10.

On the whole, the private economy in the south is more developed, the north is more dependent on resource-based industries, and the proportion of state-owned enterprises is relatively large. This economic structure will affect the resilience of various provinces in the epidemic situation.

On the other hand, we can also see that under the epidemic situation, the economic growth of inland provinces is obviously faster than that of coastal areas. For example, the regions with GDP growth of more than 1.0% in half a year are all located inland.

In fact, not only during the epidemic period, but also after the financial crisis in 2008, coastal industries began to move inland. With the large amount of fixed investment, coupled with the gradual improvement of infrastructure such as high-speed rail, inland provinces ushered in a period of rapid industrialization, with the growth rate exerting pressure on Coastal provinces.

During the outbreak, this growth momentum continued. In addition to the relatively light pressure of prevention and control and the more significant effect of investment pull, it is more that some existing development disadvantages have turned into the advantages of anti falling.

Source: Beijing News

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }For example, compared with Guangdong and Zhejiang, many provinces in the central and western regions are net outflow areas, and the employment groups are mostly local or peripheral population. In the stage of returning to work after the epidemic, when the coastal provinces charter flights and special vehicles to pick up people and return to work, the employees in these areas can easily return to their jobs, and the difficulty of returning to work is much less. Therefore, the positive economic growth in the first half of the year can reflect a certain degree of pressure resistance, but this pressure resistance may not be due to the solid foundation of economic development. The change of growth rate does not necessarily mean a new situation. What it reflects is the short-term reshaping of competition logic by the epidemic situation. Therefore, the inland provinces with good performance in the first half of the year should not be confused by the performance of headwind growth. With the end of the epidemic, some development problems covered up by the rapid growth of the epidemic will still appear again. In order to continue the growth momentum, these provinces should realize transformation and upgrading as soon as possible. Source: Wang Ning, editor in charge of Beijing News_ NB12468

For another example, compared with Guangdong, Zhejiang and other migrant population gathering areas, many of the central and western provinces are net population outflow areas, and the employment groups are mostly local or surrounding population. In the stage of returning to work after the epidemic, when the coastal provinces charter flights and special vehicles to pick up people and return to work, the employees in these areas can easily return to their jobs, and the difficulty of returning to work is much less.

Therefore, the positive economic growth in the first half of the year can reflect a certain degree of pressure resistance, but this pressure resistance may not be due to the solid foundation of economic development. The change of growth rate does not necessarily mean a new situation. What it reflects is the short-term reshaping of competition logic by the epidemic situation.

Therefore, the inland provinces with good performance in the first half of the year should not be confused by the performance of headwind growth. With the end of the epidemic, some development problems covered up by the rapid growth of the epidemic will still appear again. In order to continue the growth momentum, these provinces should realize transformation and upgrading as soon as possible.