Its been rising recently. Its six or seven yuan in two weeks, and its only a dozen yuan when its the cheapest in the last few months, a butchers boss who has been here for seven years told reporters, business is not easy at this time of year, because its off-season, but in previous years, at least we can afford to pay rent. At the beginning of this year, the price dropped for a while, but it rose quickly. Now most meat shops are paying for it.
With the rise of pork price, retailers and consumers at the end of the consumption chain are suffering. Its hard to put meat in high temperature in summer. This point has not been sold out. How dare we raise the price? I didnt have time to talk to you when you came this time. Now that the shops are on display, they can only barely support it. When will the price come down? The boss said.
The boss next door pointed to the empty shop, since last year, these two rows of meat shops have gone four, since the year before swine fever, pork prices have been abnormal.
(several pork shops in Shangsha farmers market are vacant for rent)
In fact, the rise in pork prices began in mid May. According to the latest data from the Shenzhen investigation team of the National Bureau of statistics, in June 2020, the CPI of Shenzhen increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and the prices of livestock and meat increased by 58.2%, of which pork prices increased by 71.9%.
Throughout the country, pork prices generally rose in mid May. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the average wholesale price of pork was 47.75 yuan / kg in July, up 101.92% year-on-year.
(the Ministry of Agriculture announced the wholesale price of pork in July nationwide, with the most expensive pork in Gansu Province reaching 54.81 yuan / kg)
Among them, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong and Hunan had the highest ex factory prices. The average monthly pork prices were 45.11 yuan, 44.80 yuan, 44.46 yuan, 44.25 yuan and 44.22 yuan per kilogram respectively, up 15.2%, 11.9%, 19.1%, 8.1% and 11.4%, respectively, up 117.7%, 100.4%, 90.8%, 100.0% and 103.8% year-on-year. Provinces with lower ex factory prices also showed an upward trend.
Why and when?
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Wang Yanan told the securities times that the rise in pig prices on the supply side was the main driving factor. At present, the market is in the low season of consumption, coupled with the high price of pork, which further inhibits consumption, so the boosting effect of demand side on meat price basically does not exist.
In previous years, the market should have dropped a little bit, but at this stage, there will be some seasonal shortage of pigs. Because of the high incidence of diseases such as diarrhea in winter, coupled with the poor appetite for pig food in summer, the slow growth of pigs, and more transportation damage, the supply will be reduced in a short time. Wang Yanan said.
One of the main observation points on the supply side is slaughterhouses. According to our daily monitoring data, the current operating rate has dropped by 40% to 50% compared with the same period last year. For example, a slaughterhouse that slaughters 3000-5000 pigs a day is good enough to kill 1000 pigs a day. Wang Yanan said.
Back to March and April this year, the price of pork had dropped for a period of time, and the lowest price in May had dropped to 38.93 yuan per kilogram. Wang Yanan explained that before the Spring Festival, some farmers were optimistic about the future market and deliberately suppressed some live pigs, but encountered the black swan incident of the new crown epidemic. After the outbreak, a lot of large pigs of 150 kg or even 200 kg were put on the market, leading to a downward trend in pig prices. However, in mid May, the basic pig price of 115-130 kg has not been recovered.
(Ministry of Agriculture: the average wholesale price of pork has fluctuated continuously since this year)
In addition, Wang Yanan said that the southern flood will lead to difficulties in the transportation of some areas, but there is no impact on the price at present. The import volume of pork this year is slightly larger than that in previous years. Although the import trade of some countries was banned due to the epidemic situation in June and July, the import volume of pork only accounts for about 4.4% of the total pork volume of the country, and the actual impact is not significant.
On July 21, huachu.com announced that on July 23, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments will organize the release of 10000 tons of central reserve frozen pork. According to the analysis, this is the 25th time in this year, and the cumulative amount will reach 460000 tons.
Since the outbreak of African swine fever, the supply of national reserve meat has become more and more intensive. Especially this year, there are news about the release every week, ranging from 10000 to 20000 tons. The state is trying to stabilize some pig prices through macro-control, which shows that there is no shortage of pork from the news Wang Yanan said.
It is worth noting that according to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the ex factory price of pork also dropped slightly last week (July 13-july 17), with an average of 50.24 yuan per kilogram, down 0.7% month on month. According to the announcement of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, colleges and universities in many places have taken vacations, the terminal consumption demand has been reduced, the difficulty of selling high-priced pork has been increased, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have been reduced; the large-scale farms have been put on the market orderly according to the monthly sales plan, and the market supply has increased temporarily. Affected by the negative effect of supply and demand, the average weekly price of pork fell slightly.
Yang Zhenhai, director of the animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said on July 13 that at present, Chinas pig inventory and piglet supply have been recovering for five consecutive months, indicating that the number of commercial pigs available for sale after July will gradually increase and the supply of pork market will continue to improve.
Pig futures will be listed soon
The price of domestic pigs fluctuates periodically for a long time, which has a profound impact on prices, production and life. The Research Report of Dongzheng futures pointed out that Chinas pig price has formed four cycles of cyclical fluctuations since 2006, and the major reason for the formation of a cycle is the substantial reduction of pig production capacity caused by diseases or environmental protection.
In April 2020, China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the development of pig futures trading. On July 10, Dalian Commodity Exchange launched the simulation trading of pig futures, including a short-term contract and a forward contract.
According to the Research Report of Dongzheng futures, the direct impact of the listing of pig futures on the pig cycle is not significant. However, referring to the experience of the American pig market, the degree of scale-up of pig breeding is the key to affect the length and amplitude of pig cycle. The listing of pig futures helps to promote the development of large-scale pig trading, improve the industrial concentration, thus prolonging the pig cycle and suppressing the fluctuation of pig price.
According to CITIC Futures Research Report, pig breeding enterprises can use the price discovery function of pig futures to iron out price and industrial fluctuations, and introduce long-term cooperative pricing contract model; through hedging function, upstream and downstream enterprises can use related futures to lock in upstream and downstream profits and expand their scale with capital leverage; most small and medium-sized farmers can establish futures through pig insurance mechanism+ Insurance function.
Some industry leaders have begun to lay out in the field of pig futures. Securities Times reporter noted that the recruitment notice issued by muyuan shares in April covered futures analysts (pig, grain, oil and oil), delivery manager and futures trading post. The recruitment scope basically covers the whole process of futures trading strategy, placing orders, risk control and delivery, with a monthly salary of more than 40000 yuan. Muyuan shares responded to investors on the interactive platform that at present, the subject matter of pig futures in Dalian Commodity Exchange is lean type commercial pigs, and the companys commercial pigs meet the delivery standards of pig futures. Another leading new hope interactive platform said that the company pays close attention to the policies related to pig futures and maintains close communication and interaction with relevant departments and market institutions of the big trading exchange. The company is preparing for future participation in pig futures. The most important thing is that pig futures provide a risk management tool for the company, through which the risk of pig price fluctuation can be avoided. Source: Securities Times net editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368
Some industry leaders have begun to lay out in the field of pig futures. Securities Times reporter noted that the recruitment notice issued by muyuan shares in April covered futures analysts (pig, grain, oil and oil), delivery manager and futures trading post. The recruitment scope basically covers the whole process of futures trading strategy, placing orders, risk control and delivery, with a monthly salary of more than 40000 yuan.
Another leading new hope interactive platform said that the company pays close attention to the policies related to pig futures and maintains close communication and interaction with relevant departments and market institutions of the big trading exchange. The company is preparing for future participation in pig futures. The most important thing is that pig futures provide a risk management tool for the company, through which the risk of pig price fluctuation can be avoided.