Economic semiannual forecast: infrastructure leads fixed investment growth to rise further

category:Finance
 Economic semiannual forecast: infrastructure leads fixed investment growth to rise further


The growth rate of fixed investment continued to improve

According to the survey results of chief economist of first finance and economics, economists expect the average growth rate of fixed asset investment from January to June to be - 3.03%, 3.27 percentage points higher than the figure released by the Bureau of statistics in May.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to may 2020, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, 4.0% and 9.8% lower than that in January April and the first quarter, respectively. From a month on month rate, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.87% in May.

Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan bank and member of Academic Committee of China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed with first finance and economics reporter that since June, rain weather in many places in southern China has continued, which has affected the construction progress of the project to a certain extent. High frequency data also show that the consumption of rebar in June has declined on a month on month basis, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment has risen or slowed down. It is expected to be from January to June The investment in fixed assets of the whole society decreased by about 3% year on year.

Low investment in manufacturing industry

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of new era securities, said that there is room for further repair of manufacturing investment, but considering the impact of the epidemic on profits, foreign demand and the willingness of enterprises capital expenditure, it will take time to recover, and the recovery speed of investment growth in manufacturing industry may continue to slow down and linger at a low level for a long time.

In terms of real estate investment, from January to may, the investment in real estate development decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 3% lower than that of January to April, and the residential investment remained unchanged year on year. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 6.1%, and the decline rate narrowed by 4.3 percentage points. The decrease rate of newly started housing area of real estate development enterprises narrowed by 5.6 percentage points.

Huang Jianhui, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said real estate development investment is expected to increase by 1.5% in the first half of the year, better than - 0.3% in the previous five months. The commercial housing transaction data of 30 large and medium-sized cities show that the transaction of commercial housing in June has turned warm, and the improvement of the epidemic situation makes the backlog demand in the early stage continue to be released; the decrease rate of land transaction in 100 large and medium-sized cities has expanded, and real estate enterprises are competing for hot land in hot cities, and the trend differentiation of various cities is intensified. In the short term, with the support of construction and installation investment and land purchase cost, the growth rate of real estate development investment will turn positive, but the positioning of housing and housing not speculation remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited.

Pan Xiangdong believes that the logic of infrastructure repair has not changed, but some marginal changes in June may slow down the pace of infrastructure investment and repair. In June, the issuance scale of special bonds decreased significantly. The Ministry of Finance mentioned to appropriately reduce the issuance of general treasury bonds and local bonds in June and July to make room for the issuance of special treasury bonds. The high temperature and rainy season have a negative impact on infrastructure construction, and the epidemic situation in Beijing may have a certain impact on the infrastructure construction in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. In addition, the seasonally accumulated stocks of rebar and the price of cement decreased seasonally, and there was no over seasonal performance in June.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, infrastructure investment is still an important engine of macro-economy. Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with the first finance and economics reporter that infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is likely to start. Infrastructure investment is an important grasp of counter cyclical regulation and the main force of macroeconomic growth after the epidemic. All indicators of PMI of construction industry are in a high position. With the governments support for infrastructure investment, we should be optimistic about the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year. Ding Yong, chief statistician of the investment department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that with the obvious effect of the stable investment policy, the investment in new projects continued to show a positive trend. The total investment of new projects from January to May increased by 7.9%, 6.8 percentage points faster than that from January to April. From the perspective of relevant indicators, the production and sales of construction machinery products were booming in May. The output of excavation, earth moving machinery and concrete machinery increased by 62.1% and 42.2% respectively, and the sales volume of excavators increased by 68% year on year. All of these indicate that investment is expected to continue to pick up in the future. Source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of Finance and Economics_ NB12679

Ding Yong, chief statistician of the investment department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that with the obvious effect of the stable investment policy, the investment in new projects continued to show a positive trend. The total investment of new projects from January to May increased by 7.9%, 6.8 percentage points faster than that from January to April. From the perspective of relevant indicators, the production and sales of construction machinery products were booming in May. The output of excavation, earth moving machinery and concrete machinery increased by 62.1% and 42.2% respectively, and the sales volume of excavators increased by 68% year on year. All of these indicate that investment is expected to continue to pick up in the future.