Xu Xianchun: it is very important to realize positive economic growth in the whole year

category:Finance
 Xu Xianchun: it is very important to realize positive economic growth in the whole year


Chinas economy has recovered significantly

But at present, the existing data in the second quarter show that Chinas economy is showing an obvious recovery trend.

From the perspective of production, the growth rate of industry and service industry showed an obvious recovery trend in April and may. The added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.9% in April, 5% higher than that in March; the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.4% in May, 0.5% faster than that in April.

The added value of industries above scale accounts for more than 90% of the total industrial added value, so its growth rate largely determines the industrial growth rate, and industry accounts for about 3% of GDP, so it has a great impact on GDP. Xu Xianchun said.

At the same time, the service industry production index increased by 1% in May, reversing the decline before April.

From the perspective of demand, the total retail sales of social consumption increased by 2.8% year-on-year in May, and the decline rate was 4.7 percentage points lower than that in April. The decline rate in June will continue to narrow, maybe turn to positive growth. Xu Xianchun said.

From January to April, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, 5.8% lower than that in the first quarter; from January to may, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, 4% lower than that in January April.

Whether from the perspective of production or demand, Xu Xianchun said that the economy is expected to recover better in June, so the total economic volume in the second quarter may be roughly the same as that in the same period in 2019. It is to maintain a growth rate of about 0, with a slight increase but not a high growth rate, or a slight decrease but not a big decrease.

Xu Xianchun believes that the national economy is still negative growth in the first half of the year, and the realization of positive economic growth in the whole year depends on the third quarter and the fourth quarter. From the current situation, from the perspective of various policies and current trends, the economy will continue to recover in the third and fourth quarters, especially the recovery trend in the third quarter will be more obvious, and the fourth quarter will tend to be stable. Positive growth in the second half of the year, offsetting the negative growth in the first half.

On July 11, the Institute of advanced research of Shanghai University of Finance and economics released the mid year report on the analysis and forecast of Chinas macroeconomic situation in 2020. According to the report, the real GDP growth rate in 2020 will be about 1.2%, consumption growth will be - 0.7%, investment growth will be 1.7%, export growth will be - 4.3%, and import growth will be - 9.0%.

In Xu Xianchuns view, Chinas economic development also presents new opportunities under the new crown epidemic prevention and control.

For example, Chinas high-tech manufacturing industry maintained a rapid growth. In April, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 10.5%, realizing double-digit growth. In May, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.9%, maintaining a rapid growth.

In the first quarter, the added value of the first industry decreased by 3.2%, the second industry by 9.6%, and the third industry by 5.2%.

In the tertiary industry, the impact of the new epidemic on the wholesale and retail industry, transportation, storage and postal industry, accommodation and catering industry was prominent. Among them, the value-added of accommodation and catering industry decreased the most, by 17.8%, 14% and 35.3%, respectively. However, due to the development of new economy and new kinetic energy, especially the development of information transmission, software and information technology services, the decline in the added value of the tertiary industry has been slowed down to a certain extent.

The new economic momentum has played an important role in hedging the downward pressure of the traditional economy and slowing down the downward speed. Xu Xianchun said that although the new epidemic has brought serious negative impact on production, it has provided development opportunities for new industries, new business forms and new business models as the new driving force of the new economy, and formed a reverse mechanism for Chinas industrial upgrading. The new economic and new kinetic energy will play an increasingly important role in the future social and economic development.

From the perspective of consumption, due to travel restrictions, online consumption is booming. With the normalization of Xinguan epidemic prevention and control and the enhancement of peoples awareness of epidemic prevention and control, the new consumption pattern is accepted by more and more people, which may release huge economic growth momentum.

From January to April, Chinas online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.6%, 24.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. From January to may, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.5%, achieving double-digit growth, 25 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. From the perspective of investment, the new infrastructure has also become a new opportunity presented during the new epidemic. In this years government work report, the construction of two new and one heavy has been taken as an important measure to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development. Xu Xianchun believes that the demand for traditional investment has declined during the epidemic period, so it is of great significance and necessity to take new infrastructure investment as the future direction of infrastructure construction. Under the background of epidemic prevention and control, it provides a powerful grasp for investment, stabilizes economic expectations and plays an important role in promoting economic growth. Source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of Finance and Economics_ NB12679

From January to April, Chinas online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.6%, 24.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods. From January to may, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.5%, achieving double-digit growth, 25 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods.

From the perspective of investment, the new infrastructure has also become a new opportunity presented during the new epidemic. This years two important measures of accelerating the implementation of the strategy of accelerating the development of domestic demand have been taken as two important measures of the government.

Xu Xianchun believes that the demand for traditional investment has declined during the epidemic period, so it is of great significance and necessity to take new infrastructure investment as the future direction of infrastructure construction. Under the background of epidemic prevention and control, it provides a powerful grasp for investment, stabilizes economic expectations and plays an important role in promoting economic growth.