Looking back at the historical trend of A-share market, there are many signal signs before the bull market starts.
According to the team of Hu guopeng of Founder Securities, the upgrading of domestic demand to double expansion is an important observation signal of the opening of the bull market.
According to the analysis of the report, from 1998 when the strategy of expanding domestic demand was first proposed to 2015, a total of three complete cycles of upgrading domestic demand to double expansion were experienced, and these three times were accompanied by the bull market.
Lixing research paper of YueKai securities stressed that securities companies stocks are the wind vane of bull market over the years. Judging from the performance of recent bull market and rebound market of securities companies stocks in a shares, the start of securities companies generally precedes the overall market price.
According to the analysis of the report, before the bull market from 2005 to 2007, CITIC Securities, the leading securities trader, took the lead in breaking out. In April 2005, the securities sector rebounded first, rising by 24% in a single month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 25% in the same period. At the end of August 2007, the book to book ratio of securities companies reached 15.93 times, up 747% compared with 1.88 times of the initial valuation of the bull market.
1. Recent resumption: the downward trend of risk-free interest rate promotes the proportion of equity allocation, and the endogenous bull market of securities companies starts.
2. Style and microstructure change: the participation of investors has been greatly improved, and the style tends to be stable.
With the rise of securities companies, market sentiment has risen sharply, and the willingness of investors to participate has increased sharply. However, the market still presents the characteristics of relatively stable market low wave. Under the background of orderly attack of investors, the implied risk is small.
3. Capital flow: funds gather in medicine, finance and cycle sectors, and hot money switches quickly.
Beishang capital again entered 13.19 billion yuan last Friday, which played a significant bottom effect on the market. The financial sector, driven by securities companies, saw a substantial inflow of 14.9 billion yuan. Among them, the two financial institutions continued to reach a 16 year high (1.19 trillion).
Public offering institutions continue to increase the storage of medicine and consumption. More surprisingly, public funds continued to increase positions in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, and failed to participate in the rise of the financial sector. If the follow-up securities market continues to ferment, there may be further upward space in the short term.
4. Plate configuration: short view of securities companies, long-term view of science and technology growth.
Double market bull market plate rotation
Looking back on the bull market of A-share in 2015, according to the Research Report of Hu guopeng team of Founder Securities, the growth bull in 2015 was a dominant market with growth style under the environment of a big bull market. From the start of the market in July 2014 to the end of the price recovery market in December 2015, the growth style increased by 134% during the period, which was significantly superior to the increase of about 100% in other styles.
Specifically, the bull market in 2014-2015 can be divided into five stages, in which the growth bull market is mainly reflected in the third stage of bull market acceleration and the fifth stage of valuation repair rebound.
The second stage: the unexpected interest rate cut triggered the big financial market, and the financial sector was the only one with the lowest growth style. From late November 2014 to the end of 2014.
The third stage: the bull market accelerated to rise, and the growth style was dominant for the first time. From the beginning of 2015 to the middle of June 2015. At this stage, the growth style shows obvious style preference for the first time.
The fifth stage: rescue measures to bring valuation repair rebound market, growth style again dominant. From mid September 2015 to the end of 2015. In the previous stage, the bear market plummeted, rescue measures were introduced, the market ushered in valuation repair, and the growth style was dominant again.
The first paragraph (2014 / 1 / 1-2 / 24): gem is dominant, computer, semiconductor, new energy, etc. rise together, financial and real estate cycle falls sharply.
The second paragraph (2014 / 2 / 25-5 / 19): concerns about the expansion of the new third board and the increase in the issuance speed of the growth enterprise market superimposed on the performance announcement period. The market fell and the blue chip market resisted the decline, showing that financial real estate was dominant.
The third paragraph (2014 / 5 / 19-7 / 14): after the performance disclosure, the economic data was not satisfactory, the monetary policy was loose, the theme market came back, and the small cap dominated.
The fourth paragraph (2014 / 7 / 15-7 / 28): in the disclosure period of performance forecast, TMT, military industry, medical and other flexible sectors fell, while securities companies and nonferrous metals led the short-term rise of undervalued plates.
One belt, one road, and fifth sections (2014/7/29-10/14): monetary policy is more relaxed, and the theme of state-owned enterprise reform and belt road is the main line of investment.
The sixth paragraph (2014 / 10 / 14-12 / 31): in the performance forecast period, blue chips resist the decline. With the central banks comprehensive interest rate cut, the financial industry has risen. However, the dominance of undervalued value in this stage does not correspond to the improvement of corporate profits, but is more about theme investment fermentation.
According to the report, under the similar macro background, the style of a shares in 2014 and the first half of 2020 is similar. However, the differences determine that the second half of 2020 is not the same as the second half of 2014, which will present a round rise and mixed style.
With the start of the market, the market is more concerned about style switching.
Among them, in the second half of 2014, the market style changed from the growth led since 2013 to the blue chip market. With the central banks interest rate cut-off on November 21 of that year as the cut-off point, the market in the second half of 2014 can be divided into two stages. The first is the slow bull market of blue chip valuation repair from July to mid November 2014. During the period from early July to November 21 of that year, the CSI 300 and gem increased by 19.3% and 7.1% respectively; the other was the rapid rise of blue chip plate driven by funds from November 24 to the end of December 2014, with the rise and fall of Hushen 300 and gem of 36.8% and - 2.2% respectively, and the difference of yield between the two indexes was 12.2% from the previous stage The percentage point was expanded to 39.0 percentage points.
Tianfeng securities Liu Chenming team research report analysis, relying on economic expectations of undervalued blue chip valuation switching more often occurs in the fourth quarter of the performance gap period. Moreover, due to the impact of this years epidemic, the high growth rate of the economy in the first half of next year is almost certain (even if the final falsification does not affect the market expectation in the fourth quarter), at the same time, the expectation of vaccine coming out is also approaching, and worries about the certainty of economic activities are gradually eliminated. Therefore, the fourth quarter may be a better window to grasp undervalue repair.
According to the report, after the short style drift, Q3 will continue to focus on companies with high growth and exceeding expectations in the performance window period, and Q4 suggests that it should pay attention to calendar effect to promote the dominance of undervalued sectors.
It is worth noting that Guosheng securities research paper Zhang Qiyao believes that the current index bull, the style is difficult to switch.
According to the analysis of the report, through the comparison of liquidity, policy and incremental capital in the stock market, it is believed that there are still essential differences between the current and the end of 2014 index bull market, and there is no comprehensive bull market condition.
First, from the perspective of style, liquidity at the end of 2014 was in the range of broad currency and broad credit, while at present it is still in wide currency and weak credit?.
Second, from the perspective of policy, since the second half of 2014, the policy has turned to stable growth, and with the substantial relaxation of real estate, the current policy is still the bottom line thinking, and the real estate is not fried tone remains unchanged.
Third, from the perspective of incremental funds, at the end of 2014, the direct entry of residents funds into the market and leveraged funds prevailed, while at present, the funds from public offering and foreign capital are dominated, which is more similar to the institutional bull in 2013-2014.
Extended reading, hooves CLICK! The Shanghai stock index closed up 5.71% and more than 1.5 trillion yuan of transactions were completed in the two markets. Big country bulls have arrived! Li Daxiao warned: bull market is dangerous, mad bull is more dangerous. July 6 trading limit analysis: more than 200 shares trading limit financial sector broke out. Source: wind information editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368