Taking history as a mirror, how does the previous bull market plate move?

category:Finance
 Taking history as a mirror, how does the previous bull market plate move?


Important signals of bull market

Looking back at the historical trend of A-share market, there are many signal signs before the bull market starts.

According to the team of Hu guopeng of Founder Securities, the upgrading of domestic demand to double expansion is an important observation signal of the opening of the bull market.

According to the analysis of the report, from 1998 when the strategy of expanding domestic demand was first proposed to 2015, a total of three complete cycles of upgrading domestic demand to double expansion were experienced, and these three times were accompanied by the bull market.

Lixing research paper of YueKai securities stressed that securities companies stocks are the wind vane of bull market over the years. Judging from the performance of recent bull market and rebound market of securities companies stocks in a shares, the start of securities companies generally precedes the overall market price.

According to the analysis of the report, before the bull market from 2005 to 2007, CITIC Securities, the leading securities trader, took the lead in breaking out. In April 2005, the securities sector rebounded first, rising by 24% in a single month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 25% in the same period. At the end of August 2007, the book to book ratio of securities companies reached 15.93 times, up 747% compared with 1.88 times of the initial valuation of the bull market.

According to the analysis of Guotai Junan research paper, the characteristics of bull market have been formed, and the attack formation will be adjusted in two stages: the short-term securities companies will continue to be strong, and the late scientific and technological trend will continue for a long time.

According to the report:

1. Recent resumption: the downward trend of risk-free interest rate promotes the proportion of equity allocation, and the endogenous bull market of securities companies starts.

Last week, the market rose in an all-round way, with a straight-line rise in the index. Bull market feature 1: the willingness of investors to participate soared, especially the rapid admission of individual investors. Feature 2: market sentiment and risk appetite have risen sharply. Feature 3: the industry is generally rising, and the market intensity is greatly improved. Feature 4: the heavyweight stocks rose sharply, accompanied by significant industry rotation characteristics.

2. Style and microstructure change: the participation of investors has been greatly improved, and the style tends to be stable.

With the rise of securities companies, market sentiment has risen sharply, and the willingness of investors to participate has increased sharply. However, the market still presents the characteristics of relatively stable market low wave. Under the background of orderly attack of investors, the implied risk is small.

3. Capital flow: funds gather in medicine, finance and cycle sectors, and hot money switches quickly.

Beishang capital again entered 13.19 billion yuan last Friday, which played a significant bottom effect on the market. The financial sector, driven by securities companies, saw a substantial inflow of 14.9 billion yuan. Among them, the two financial institutions continued to reach a 16 year high (1.19 trillion).

4. Plate configuration: short view of securities companies, long-term view of science and technology growth.

VIX rose slightly and risk appetite continued to soar. The domestic VIX Index rose to around 23 this week, while overseas VIX continued to decline to 27.68. However, the risk appetite index continues to soar, and growth stocks are still the long-term dominant direction. In addition, under the background of risk-free interest rate going down, the driving force of chasing equity assets will continue to strengthen in the future. Therefore, short-term recommendation of securities companies, long-term recommendation of pharmaceutical, consumer segmentation growth plate, biotechnology and consumer services, and technology sector.

Double market bull market plate rotation

Looking back on the bull market of A-share in 2015, according to the Research Report of Hu guopeng team of Founder Securities, the growth bull in 2015 was a dominant market with growth style under the environment of a big bull market. From the start of the market in July 2014 to the end of the price recovery market in December 2015, the growth style increased by 134% during the period, which was significantly superior to the increase of about 100% in other styles.

Specifically, the bull market in 2014-2015 can be divided into five stages, in which the growth bull market is mainly reflected in the third stage of bull market acceleration and the fifth stage of valuation repair rebound.

The first stage: the bull market starts, the market generally rises, and shares equally. From July 2014 to the end of November 2014. At this stage, the index of each style rose almost evenly, which did not reflect the growth preference.

The second stage: the unexpected interest rate cut triggered the big financial market, and the financial sector was the only one with the lowest growth style. From late November 2014 to the end of 2014.

The third stage: the bull market accelerated to rise, and the growth style was dominant for the first time. From the beginning of 2015 to the middle of June 2015. At this stage, the growth style shows obvious style preference for the first time.

The fourth stage: the valuation bubble burst, the market fell and growth declined slightly. From late June 2015 to mid September 2015. Under the atmosphere of overheated market, cracking down on the over-the-counter capital allocation has become a direct catalyst for the coming bear market. During this period, various styles and industries generally fell, with little difference, and the decline of style index was only slightly more.

The fifth stage: rescue measures to bring valuation repair rebound market, growth style again dominant. From mid September 2015 to the end of 2015. In the previous stage, the bear market plummeted, rescue measures were introduced, the market ushered in valuation repair, and the growth style was dominant again.

According to the analysis of Zhang Xia Research Report of China Merchants Securities, the style of a shares in 2014 and the first half of 2020 is similar. In 2014, there were six style rotations.

The first paragraph (2014 / 1 / 1-2 / 24): gem is dominant, computer, semiconductor, new energy, etc. rise together, financial and real estate cycle falls sharply.

The second paragraph (2014 / 2 / 25-5 / 19): concerns about the expansion of the new third board and the increase in the issuance speed of the growth enterprise market superimposed on the performance announcement period. The market fell and the blue chip market resisted the decline, showing that financial real estate was dominant.

The fourth paragraph (2014 / 7 / 15-7 / 28): in the disclosure period of performance forecast, TMT, military industry, medical and other flexible sectors fell, while securities companies and nonferrous metals led the short-term rise of undervalued plates.

One belt, one road, and fifth sections (2014/7/29-10/14): monetary policy is more relaxed, and the theme of state-owned enterprise reform and belt road is the main line of investment.

According to the report, under the similar macro background, the style of a shares in 2014 and the first half of 2020 is similar. However, the differences determine that the second half of 2020 is not the same as the second half of 2014, which will present a round rise and mixed style.

Organization debating style switching

Ping An Securities Wei Wei research paper analysis, re trading in 2014, we believe that style switching is not strictly a zero sum game, more is the spread of undervalued plates with sufficient liquidity. The improvement of short-term economic expectation is the inducing factor to guide the repair of blue chip valuation in the initial stage. The central bank cut interest rates and increased the liquidity easing to support the market in the medium and long term.

Among them, in the second half of 2014, the market style changed from the growth led since 2013 to the blue chip market. With the central banks interest rate cut-off on November 21 of that year as the cut-off point, the market in the second half of 2014 can be divided into two stages. The first is the slow bull market of blue chip valuation repair from July to mid November 2014. During the period from early July to November 21 of that year, the CSI 300 and gem increased by 19.3% and 7.1% respectively; the other was the rapid rise of blue chip plate driven by funds from November 24 to the end of December 2014, with the rise and fall of Hushen 300 and gem of 36.8% and - 2.2% respectively, and the difference of yield between the two indexes was 12.2% from the previous stage The percentage point was expanded to 39.0 percentage points.

According to the report, after the short style drift, Q3 will continue to focus on companies with high growth and exceeding expectations in the performance window period, and Q4 suggests that it should pay attention to calendar effect to promote the dominance of undervalued sectors.

It is worth noting that Guosheng securities research paper Zhang Qiyao believes that the current index bull, the style is difficult to switch.

First, from the perspective of style, liquidity at the end of 2014 was in the range of broad currency and broad credit, while at present it is still in wide currency and weak credit?.

Third, from the perspective of incremental funds, at the end of 2014, the direct entry of residents funds into the market and leveraged funds prevailed, while at present, the funds from public offering and foreign capital are dominated, which is more similar to the institutional bull in 2013-2014.

Extended reading, hooves CLICK! The Shanghai stock index closed up 5.71% and more than 1.5 trillion yuan of transactions were completed in the two markets. Big country bulls have arrived! Li Daxiao warned: bull market is dangerous, mad bull is more dangerous. July 6 trading limit analysis: more than 200 shares trading limit financial sector broke out. Source: wind information editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368