A comprehensive revival is impossible. Any industry is concentrating on leading companies and a few companies. This is the general trend in the future.
The above is Lin Yuan, chairman of Linyuan company, who recently participated in the question and answer program of private placement network investors. Lin Yuan is also a resident guest of the private placement network performance center. At the end of the first half of the year and the beginning of investment in the second half of the year, there are also disputes and stages on the future market. The private placement network specially invited Mr. Lin Yuan to communicate with investors online and share the research, judgment and layout of Forest Park Investment on the future market.
Lin Yuan graduated from clinical medicine and worked in Shenzhen Honghui hospital as an outpatient doctor of internal medicine. In 1989, the forest park entered the market with 8000 yuan. Over the past 30 years, it has experienced many rounds of bull and bear. At present, its individual and family penetration has accumulated stock market value of more than tens of billion yuan. From stock speculators to professional investors, Linyuan firmly invests in monopoly and addictive commodities, and the cumulative compound growth rate of its core varieties is more than 100 times. In 2006, the forest park established the forest park investment. As the sunshine private placement established earlier in China, the companys management scale is close to 10 billion yuan.
The Shanghai Composite Index will not enter the real bull market until it exceeds 4300
From a variety of indicators and performance, now the entire market A-share market is entering the early stage of the bull market, and we are more and more firm in this judgment. At this time, the majority of stocks can not be set up in the end.
Combined with the characteristics of the market, investors should clearly understand that the operation of bull market and bear market is completely opposite. After the Spring Festival, for example, in the last two or three months, many companies with large market value have been rising in turn. At present, banks and real estate are a little bit worse. Todays (July 2) securities companies also began to perform, which is the performance of the early bull market. In the afternoon, some investors asked me why the securities companies would rise? I said that at the beginning of the bull market, securities companies will rise, because the index has reached 3000 points.
When does the real bull market begin? We judge that if the index center of the bull market exceeds 4300, and the Shanghai composite index can exceed 4300 to 4500, then it is the real beginning of the bull market. Now is in the early stage of the bull market, is also the beginning of bear end bull. Judgment of the market is very important, it will guide us how to operate in the second half of the year.
At the beginning of the bull market, leading companies will continue to create new heights, and companies with large market value will continue to rise. If you think that is high, they will continue to rise. Therefore, everyones thinking in the bull market should be expanded. If we judge that it is the early stage of the bull market at this time, the probability that you will be caught by A-shares at this time is not very high. Generally, the bull market will not be trapped for more than 6 months, and it will be released in 3-6 months. This is an iron rule, which is the same in bull markets all over the world.
According to different market conditions, we will make different choices. If each sector of the market breaks out in turn, we will continue to follow up some of the hot spots in the market and boldly follow up. But at the beginning of the bull market, some companies that are easy to be forgotten should be avoided. In recent years, the issuance of new shares has been accelerating, including the growth enterprise market, the science and technology innovation board and the new third board, and the supply of the market is increasing. However, we are adopting a evasive attitude towards these companies. Even if these companies rise, they will not rise significantly until the mid-term of the bull market. This is the law of the bull market.
At the beginning of the bull market, companies that pay attention to the head must be the companies that pay attention to the head. Of course, the second tier companies, or some high-quality third tier companies, will also perform in the midway. However, its sustainability remains to be observed, so it is still the companies focusing on the head.
Our investment direction in the second half of the year has been very clear. For example, since April 2016, we have emphasized only investing in the mouth and medicine, but that is the investment strategy we put forward at the end of the bear market and in the bear market. Now that the market has changed, we should keep pace with the times and make some directional decisions with the changes of the market, not limited to investment, consumption and medical treatment. If the market can break through 4000 points, we will make a phased layout of some good companies in the market.
In the second half of the year, pharmaceutical liquor will still be the main market
Investors: where is the logic of the liquor markets record high?
Investor: will pharmaceutical liquor market continue in the second half of the year?
Lin Yuan: maybe the rate is still such a melody, and the market of medical liquor will continue to be deduced.
Investor: there are many people who think that they will turn to the real estate industry or the financial industry in the second half of the year. What do you think?
Lin Yuan: at present, we are still not involved in real estate finance. When to participate? It really entered the bull market and broke through 4300. I dont think it will be a loss to participate in it at that time.
Investor: can Chinese medicine industry enter the market?
Linyuan: Traditional Chinese medicine should be treated differently. Especially in this epidemic, many small and medium-sized enterprises, such as the production of cold medicine, intimate detoxification, these diseases will be less under the epidemic situation. But the overall trend, Chinese medicine plate is not overvalued, can be invested.
Investor: there are rumors about the merger of CITIC Securities and CITIC construction investment. Is this a catalyst for the bull market?
Linyuan: there is no direct relationship between the current market and merger or not. If the index is at a stage high, the securities companies will certainly not be bad. Of course, we can see that the current profit level of securities companies is really very poor, so we cant see hope, can we? This is because Chinas stock market has been a bear market for the past 10 years without a bull market.
As for M & A and merger, the final way is to concentrate the profits and scale of the industry to leading companies. For example, a wave of bull market will definitely accelerate the development of several securities companies. If we judge correctly, if there is a magnificent bull market in China in the future, there will be oligarchs in securities companies. Their profits and PE will drop sharply, and their profit level will change dramatically.
Investor: once the bull market starts, what skills can be used to seize the bull market?
Linyuan: at present, the initial stage of the bull market investment strategy is very clear, that is to hold, firmly hold some leading companies. The real rotation should be chosen after 4300.
Investor: Mr. Lin mentioned that 4300 is the center of the bull market. When do you expect to reach this point? Lin Yuan: the point is repeated. It is very difficult to break through this point for so many years. The time to enter the bull market is not easy to predict. I personally judge that it is expected to stand at 4300 in 12 months. Investor: Mr. Lin is full at present, but the pressure is very big when the full position falls. How did Mr. Lin carry it at that time? Lin Yuan: basically, we are operating with full positions. If we encounter systemic risks, we will also have a short-term decline. But we havent experienced a long period of decline in the past few decades, not more than a few months at most. So the core is whether you have made money. As long as the safety cushion is large enough, you will ignore the short-term decline; if you make little money or have been losing money, you will certainly be afraid of falling. Extended reading news: the Shanghai index rose more than 5% and reached the 3300 level. The trading limit of nearly 20 securities companies stocks takes history as a mirror. How does the previous bull market plate rotate? A shares soared northward, capital swarmed into the domestic institutions in every high reduction? Source of this article: Yang Bin_ NF4368
Investor: Mr. Lin mentioned that 4300 is the center of the bull market. When do you expect to reach this point?
Lin Yuan: the point is repeated. It is very difficult to break through this point for so many years. The time to enter the bull market is not easy to predict. I personally judge that it is expected to stand at 4300 in 12 months.
Investor: Mr. Lin is full at present, but the pressure is very big when the full position falls. How did Mr. Lin carry it at that time?
Lin Yuan: basically, we are operating with full positions. If we encounter systemic risks, we will also have a short-term decline. But we havent experienced a long period of decline in the past few decades, not more than a few months at most. So the core is whether you have made money. As long as the safety cushion is large enough, you will ignore the short-term decline; if you make little money or have been losing money, you will certainly be afraid of falling.