How long can stockjobbers rise? There are still three problems in copying the market at the end of 2014

category:Finance
 How long can stockjobbers rise? There are still three problems in copying the market at the end of 2014


Industry analysis pointed out that, in fact, the current rise in securities companies and the end of 2014 epic market is still a certain distance.

Looking back on the historical data, we can find that in the 11 trading days after November 20, 2014, the total increase of China Securities Company index once approached 60%, which was nearly 20 percentage points higher than that of the current market. In the 20 trading days, the total increase of the index reached 109.24%, which eventually led to the continuous rise of a shares in the next year, and once reached a high of 5000 points.

Compared with 2014, the environment of the current A-share market is not exactly the same, so it is objectively difficult for securities companies to simply copy the sharp rise of that year. This is because there are three differences between the current market and the securities sector and those in 2014.

First of all, the current market financing structure is relatively single.

Secondly, there are differences in the logic of valuation revision in the securities industry.

At the end of 2014, the rise of securities companies stocks was related to the three-year capital replenishment plan that the regulatory authorities forced to push forward. However, the current logic of promoting securities companies valuation repair may benefit from the policy intention of the management to build an aircraft carrier level securities operation organization. There are essential differences between the two on the fundamental aspects of the securities industry. The former is the asset expansion in the general sense of the securities industry, The latter will promote the polarization of the industry. Thirdly, the situation faced by macro policies and fundamentals is different. At the end of 2014, the starting gun for the rise of the securities sector came from the central banks RRR reduction at that time, which meant that the starting gun of the easing credit cycle had already started, and funds should enter the market; in contrast, the haze of public health events has not been completely eliminated, and trade friction, the complexity of the international situation and the potential impact on the global supply chain are still the potential components of economic fundamentals Once the bull market expectation is interfered by some accidental factors, it will also have an impact on the optimistic expectation of securities companies. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century_ NF4368

At the end of 2014, the rise of securities companies stocks was related to the three-year capital replenishment plan that the regulatory authorities forced to push forward. However, the current logic of promoting securities companies valuation repair may benefit from the policy intention of the management to build an aircraft carrier level securities operation organization. There are essential differences between the two on the fundamental aspects of the securities industry. The former is the asset expansion in the general sense of the securities industry, The latter will promote the polarization of the industry.