Thats why the market value soared by 1.32 trillion in four months

 Thats why the market value soared by 1.32 trillion in four months

Since the Shenwan liquor index hit the years low point of 34371 on March 19, as of July 3, the liquor index closed at 55631, with a stage increase of 61.85%. Guizhou Maotai (600519. SH), Wuliangye (000858. SZ), Luzhou Laojiao (000568. SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH), gujinggong liquor (000596. SZ), Jinshiyuan (603369. SH), Shuijingfang (600779. SH) and Jiugui Liquor (000799. SZ) all set new record highs.

Data source: wind, interface news research department

Among them, Guizhou Maotai stock price is 1541.79 yuan / share, with a stage increase of 57.49%, which has reached the level that one share corresponds to a bottle of Feitian Maotai (the guiding price of Feitian Maotai is 1499 yuan / bottle); the market value of Wuliangye has also exceeded 700 billion yuan, and the current stock price is 188.72 yuan / share, with a phased increase of 88.91%.

With the head of the liquor company share price repeatedly record high, the tail liquor company share price is also restless. Even the share price of jinzhongjiu (600199. SH), the only wine company with a loss in 2019, rose more than 50% from its low.

This years performance slowdown of liquor companies is a big probability event

Since the outbreak of the golden pit in March due to the impact of the epidemic, liquor stocks can be divided into two stages. The first stage is to repair the valuation of liquor stocks from March to April. From the Shenwan Baijiu index, it can be seen that within one month, the stock price of Baijiu stocks returned to the level before the epidemic. In the second stage, liquor stocks showed a strong trend and reached new highs.

The impact of the epidemic situation on the whole liquor industry is mainly concentrated in the first quarter of 2020. This can be seen from the overall pressure on the revenue of liquor enterprises in the first quarter, only Guizhou Maotai and Wuliangye showed double-digit growth year on year. In other medium and high-end liquor enterprises, the revenue of Shanxi Fenjiu increased by 1.71% year-on-year, while the revenue of other liquor enterprises declined.

From the perspective of contract liabilities (originally accounts receivable in advance), all liquor companies have declined to varying degrees. This shows that the channel business in the end of the first quarter to take goods to pay for the pressure, downstream liquor consumption is affected to a certain extent. Among them, Guizhou Maotai contract liabilities decreased by 39.31% and Wuliangye by 1.75% year-on-year.

In the second half of this year, with the effective control of the epidemic situation, liquor consumption is expected to recover. Take the SARS epidemic in 2003 as an example. At that time, the growth rate of liquor industry income decreased from 10.4% in March to 6.9% in June, and began to rise in July. The profit growth rate dropped from 12.2% in April to 2.7% in June, and then began to rise in July. The corresponding output growth rate declined in the second quarter, and then recovered after the third quarter.

Therefore, the influence of epidemic situation on liquor sales in the whole year can be calculated simply. As the consumption in the peak season of the Spring Festival generally accounts for about 40% of the sales of liquor enterprises in the first quarter, and the consumption in the first quarter accounts for 35% of the sales volume of the whole year. Therefore, it is estimated that the new epidemic situation will affect about 15% of the annual revenue of liquor enterprises, and the impact of head liquor enterprises is expected to be about 10%. In the first quarter of 2020, the total revenue of all listed liquor companies increased by 7.29% year-on-year, and slowed down by 16% compared with the 23.42% growth rate in the first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, the growth rate of attributable net profit was 8.49%, about 20 percentage points slower than that of 28.32% in the same period of last year. The first quarter revenue growth of Maotai and Wuliangye in Guizhou slowed down by 9.67% and 11.52% respectively, which was significantly less affected than that of peers.

Behind the historical high valuation

The real foundation for the rise of liquor price comes from the expectation of rising liquor price.

It is reported that Luzhou Laojiao has stopped receiving 1573 orders and suspending the supply of goods. This is preparing for the price rise of its high-end liquor. Coincidentally, the voice of Wuliangyes recent price increase is also increasing. Although the price of Guizhou Maotai has not increased at the manufacturers shipping end, its terminal sales price is also rising. According to the news reporters on the interface, recently, a batch of quotations for a full container of Maotai have exceeded 2400 yuan / bottle, returning to the historical high price of liquor. The main reason is that with the alleviation of the epidemic situation, liquor consumption is back on the right track, the value of Feitian Maotai has been repositioned in the market, and storing liquor for sale has become a way to maintain and increase the value of liquor.

It is undeniable that the head liquor enterprises represented by Guizhou Maotai and Wuliangye are absolutely excellent companies. However, this year is the year of their respective strategic adjustment. With the impact of epidemic situation, the growth rate of performance will obviously slow down. The revenue growth targets of Maotai and Wuliangye in Guizhou are set at 10% this year, showing a slowdown compared with the annual growth of 15.1% and 25.2% in 2019.

In fact, the valuation of head liquor companies has reached a 10-year high, which can be proved by winds price earnings ratio channel (hereinafter referred to as peband). Peband is a professional tool to analyze the rationality of company valuation, which is composed of five tracks superimposed on the historical trend chart of stock price. Guizhou Maotai valuation center is at 25 times P / E ratio, Wuliangye valuation center is at 20 times P / E ratio. At present, the valuation of more than 40 times P / E ratio is very high, especially under the trend of global asset decline.

Data source: wind, interface news research department

Data source: wind, interface news research department

Its not just the head liquor companies, but also the valuation of the whole liquor industry. As of July 3, the P / E ratio of Shenwan liquor industry was 41.5 times, a record high. The previous high was 41 times that set in 2018.

Data source: wind, interface news research department

In the case of slowing down in the performance growth, the valuation of liquor stocks has repeatedly reached new highs. Is this the final madness? Im afraid only time can give the answer. Source: interface news editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368